Some employment/economic numbers from the last month/quarter/year.

[Direckshun]

As the recovery continues. There's a bunch of stuff on this but they don't all warrant their own threads so here's a compendium of economic information.

The economy last year experienced a net-improvement of 2.17 million jobs (private sector gained 2.24), which is better than every single year of the Bush Presidency except one (2005).

The jobs report of the fourth quarter of 2012 has been revised upward, now saying we added 600,000+ jobs from October through December.

The GDP actually contracted 0.1% in that quarter, however. The first contraction in 13 quarters -- though revisions will probably change that to a slight expansion -- largely because of Hurricane Sandy and vast layoffs in the defense sector.

The initial estimate is that we added 157,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate actually jumped, however, from 7.8% to 7.9%. As the economy gets better, more people are entering the job market.

The government continues to be the main holder-backer of a faster recovery, as reduced government payrolls have weighed down employment figures.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of Manufacturing activity grew to 53.1, according to the Institute for Supply Management, which is a big jump up.

The Dow jumped above 1,500 earlier this month. After today's jobs report, it launched above 1,400.

What's driving the jump up in employment? Mostly, construction, buoyed by about 30,000 new hires, which indicates more homes are being built.





You're welcome.

[Prison Bitch]

So now we hear in Liberal say dems don't all blame W for the recession, then another say we need more immigration to solve the debt. This is awesome

[KC native]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

When it gets to a certain point you become Greece.

There is nothing in our future that indicates we can tolerate trillion dollar a year interest payments and keep our standard of living.

Nothing.

Ok, what point do you think that is? When do you think we get there? Do you even know what our current GDP is? Are you aware that we are no where close to having a trillion dollar a year interest payment?

Most importantly, what is the major difference between the US and Greece in terms of financial landscape?

[KC native]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

So now we hear in Liberal say dems don't all blame W for the recession, then another say we need more immigration to solve the debt. This is awesome

You are dumb. Just shut up please. You have a child's understanding of the world and written language.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by KC native

You are dumb. Just shut up please. You have a child's understanding of the world and written language.

At least I-unlike you-know how to read polling data.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

We've been through that before on this forum.

You're seriously criticizing Obama for failing to cut a trillion dollars into the annual deficit in four years. That's assinine.

Deficit reduction retards growth. Not even you deny that.

We are still a ways from reaching pre-recession levels, and we've already enacted 2.4 trillion in deficit reduction.

Deficit reduction, right now, is not our primary concern. Our primary concern is unemployment.

Our primary concern should be in fostering activities that create growth. Not in artificially stimulating the economy. For example, by printing money.

That's why I can't side with either left or right, but tend to side with the right. We have to stop centering our economy around the government handing out jobs as opposed to fostering an environment where corporations hire more people, and more and more people are qualified for good work.

[KC native]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

At least I-unlike you-know how to read polling data.

In what way is that response even relevant to what's been talked about in this thread?

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

Stimulate the economy how? Just where would you spend the money expecting to get a payback that would reduce the debt?

What does the CBO project for a deficit in 2020? That isn't really that far off.

And no, I wouldn't take that deal. I'm on record saying all Obama tax cuts should expire and we take our medicine now.

You and your party want to kick the can down the road only for political gain no matter what collateral damage you cause. Just admit it.

All your arguments are based on one factor: reducing the deficit is more important than fighting unemployment in the near-term.

That's simply misguided.

The pain we're suffering from in the unemployment realm is real and affects millions of the working poor and middle class -- and it affects them now.

The pain we're suffering from on fiscal irresponsibility is far off in the distance. People are begging to buy American bonds so hard right now because they continue to be the most reliable on the planet. People are essentially paying us to take out debt. The idea that America could become Greece at current spending levels is laughable, our debt is sizeable but it is not a problem we must wrestle with now at the expense of the economy.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Our primary concern should be in fostering activities that create growth. Not in artificially stimulating the economy. For example, by printing money.

That's why I can't side with either left or right, but tend to side with the right. We have to stop centering our economy around the government handing out jobs as opposed to fostering an environment where corporations hire more people, and more and more people are qualified for good work.

You want to talk about centering the economy, we can center it.

But first, right now we need to fight unemployment back down to its pre-recession levels. And the economy needs more demand to do that.

Let's do a nationwide infrastructure project. Make our transportation the envy of the world. Every means of travel will be streamlined, updated, and in tip top condition.

Put millions of people to work on it. Get them jobs with paychecks, for at least a few years. Boost the shit out of the economy and when our transportation system is among the world's leaders, our GDP is rising at a solid clip and unemployment is at a 21st century low, we can wind down our government projects, embrace a Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction package, turn a budget surplus and start paying down the debt for a generation.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

You want to talk about centering the economy, we can center it.

But first, right now we need to fight unemployment back down to its pre-recession levels. And the economy needs more demand to do that.

Let's do a nationwide infrastructure project. Make our transportation the envy of the world. Every means of travel will be streamlined, updated, and in tip top condition.

Put millions of people to work on it. Get them jobs with paychecks, for at least a few years. Boost the shit out of the economy and when our transportation system is among the world's leaders, our GDP is rising at a solid clip and unemployment is at a 21st century low, we can wind down our government projects, embrace a Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction package, turn a budget surplus and start paying down the debt for a generation.

i can't stand infrastructure projects. I get that we have to fix deteriorating infrastructure, but you spend a shitload of resources and man-hours on construction projects that really don't add a lot of value. Sorry, but widening a road really isn't going to do a whole lot to create jobs 10 years from now, considering the massive cost you're putting into doing that. That's what's happened to America. We used to control industries, and now we are falling second-fiddle to Asia on a lot of our products.

There are much better ways to spend our money. I would rather raise sustainable revenue sources. Start with small businesses, not infrastructure. On the small business / corporate side, stop punishing risk-takers and stop squeezing them with added regulation that increases the time and cost of doing business. 10 years ago, Japan was cleaning us out in the cell phone market. Today, we control the market, and it is bringing foreign dollars into the US. I would much, much rather find the next Facebook and Apple and Yahoo then spend money on road projects.

Rather than create artificial jobs through often worthless infrastructure jobs, why not instead use that money to re-train workers to work jobs that are... oh I don't know, actually in demand? There are tons of trade jobs out there that are hiring like crazy and they can't find candidates to fill. You fill that job, and that person has a job for 20 years. You fill a construction job and, sorry, but the government has to keep making up projects to get that filled.

[blaise]

Direckshun's main desire is to make the unemployment numbers look good under Obama so he can say what an awesome job Obama's doing, so he can finally post his, "Obama Is A Top 5 President in History" thread.

[Direckshun]

And yet, a new Quinnipac poll says Americans care the most about the deficit.

God.

[blaise]

So, when polls show that Americans support gun control Direckshun thinks it means Americans are on the Democrats side. But when they care about the deficit it means they're dumb.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by blaise

Direckshun's main desire is to make the unemployment numbers look good under Obama so he can say what an awesome job Obama's doing, so he can finally post his, "Obama Is A Top 5 President in History" thread.

Obama won't even be a top 5 President this Millenium for too much longer.

[Direckshun]

Further evidence that there has been ample austerity already enacted.

http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.c...ening-now.html

Fiscal Austerity is Happening Now
David Beckworth
Sunday, February 10, 2013

Ryan Avent notes that fiscal austerity is happening now:

[T]he record shows that total federal government outlays were 25.2% of GDP in 2009, 24.1% of GDP in 2011, and 22.8% in 2012...Both outlays and receipts are, as a share of GDP, below pre-crisis level... the "austerity" of 2011-2012 wasn't "austerity" but austerity. Federal government spending fell by a meaningful share of GDP over that period. So did federal government employment, which dropped by 31,000 jobs in 2011 and 45,000 jobs in 2012. What's more, we have good reason to believe that these cuts entailed positive multipliers above those we'd observe in normal times. You don't have to take the IMF's word for it; even stimulus sceptics like Valerie Ramey find that multipliers may sometimes be above normal, and above one, during periods of economic slack.

This is exactly the case that I have been making. And apparently so has Goldman Sachs. The only additional point I have stressed is that despite this austerity happening at a time of high unemployment and a large output gap, a slowdown in aggregate demand growth has failed to materialize. This does not mean fiscal policy multipliers are small--they may be large--but only that the Fed has been offsetting the drag created by the fiscal austerity. And to boot, it has done so in an environment where the short-term interest rate is up against the zero-lower bound (ZLB). Monetary policy, therefore, is not out of ammunition at the ZLB, as I noted in my last post on this issue.

Just to be thorough, below are some figures that demonstrate the fiscal austerity observed by Ryan Avent. First, here is total federal government expenditures in current dollars. It has stalled and gradually started to fall:



As a percent of NGDP, total federal government expenditures is steeply falling. Not exactly a Keynesian prescription for stable aggregate demand when the economy is far from full employment:



If we look at the federal government deficit, whether in dollars or as a percent of GDP, it too indicates increasing fiscal austerity given the ongoing slack in the economy. Recall that running a deficit is how the government takes "idle" private-sector savings and puts it to "productive" work. Less and less of this transformation is being done:



Finally, if we look at those components that make up the "G" in GDP (i.e. Y=C+I+G+NX) in inflation-adjusted terms we see that G has been unequivocally falling:



Now this fiscal austerity is mild compared to what is proposed to happen going forward. But it is still fiscal consolidation and given large fiscal multipliers--which are more plausible in periods of significant economic slack like today--we should at least see aggregate demand faltering over the past few years while this unfolded. But in fact, we see relatively stable aggregate demand growth, as measured by NGDP:



This remarkably stable NGDP growth path since 2009 has occurred despite the fiscal austerity (and a host of other negative economic shocks like the Eurozone crisis, China slowing, debt ceiling talks, and fiscal cliff) and only makes sense if the Fed has been offsetting the fiscal drag. And again, it has been doing so in a ZLB environment. While the Fed's success here should be recognized, it is also apparent that the Fed has failed to restore NGDP to its pre-crisis trend. This failure to provide "catch-up" nominal spending growth is big black eye for the Fed and is why a NGDP level target is way overdue for the Fed.

P.S. Ramesh Ponnuru and I made a similar argument during the fiscal cliff debacle.

[Comrade Crapski]

I always new Chicago moonbats were crazy, this just confirms it...

A Democratic Party-backed judge who won re-election in November while facing battery charges was found not guilty Monday–by reason of insanity.

The insanity verdict could aid the judge's effort to return to the bench.

Not long after Judge Cynthia Brim was charged in March with misdemeanor battery for shoving a deputy outside the Daley Center, a panel of supervising judges effectively suspended her, banning Brim from the county's courthouses without a police escort.

Bar associations have recommended since 2000 that Brim be tossed from her $182,000-a-year job, but voters have kept returning her to the bench. Experts have said Brim's case highlights the difficulty of unseating a judge up for retention in Cook County.

On Monday, less than a year after the judge embarked on what attorneys described as a delusional journey across the city that ended with her in handcuffs, Brim sat at a wooden table marked "Defendant" on the 13th floor of the Daley Center for a highly unusual bench trial.

Testimony revealed that Brim has been hospitalized five times after suffering mental breakdowns in the 18 years since she was first elected. In 2004, Brim was carried off the bench at a suburban courthouse after she froze while addressing her courtroom before starting the day, standing mute until someone called paramedics, her attorney said.

Brim, 54, was diagnosed years ago with a bipolar type of schizoaffective disorder, which means she experiences delusions and hallucinations, psychiatrist Mathew Markos testified. The symptoms can be kept in check with medication, he testified.

Prosecutors argued that Brim was "criminally responsible" for her actions last spring as she had chosen once again to stop taking her medications. Her attorney said a psychiatrist had advised her to only take the drugs when she needed to.

"She made the choice, despite numerous hospitalizations, to go off her medications," Assistant State's Attorney Maria Burnett said.

DuPage County Judge Liam Brennan -- who was brought in to hear the case -- said his verdict is separate from the larger question of Brim's fitness to be a judge. The state's Judicial Inquiry Board is investigating Brim for multiple alleged violations of the code of professional responsibility, an inquiry that could ultimately end with her removal from the bench, her attorney James Montgomery said.

"This is not about the wisdom of allowing this defendant to serve as a judge," Brennan said.

Legal expert Warren Wolfson, who spent 15 years as a trial judge, said the board will want to be sure that Brim is capable of performing her duties on the bench. The board would consider other incidents as well, including the disruption in her own courtroom.

"The issue is whether she has the ability to perform her duties," Wolfson said.

Brim's November re-election campaign was backed by the Cook County Democratic Party as well as the Committee for Retention of Judges in Cook County, a campaign committee funded by judges. Judges need 60 percent of the vote to be retained; failing to meet that mark is rare.

On March 8, Brim was asked to leave the Markham courthouse after going on a tirade while presiding over traffic court, sources told the Tribune last year. The next day, she read a newspaper story about a Cook County judge who was using lots of sick leave and decided to complain to the judicial board, which disciplines judges, about what she viewed as an unfair story.

But she took the wrong bus and ended up on 47th Street, so she decided to make a "march for justice" up to the board's Loop offices, Markos said. After walking more than 5 miles, she at some point went to her attorney's building, but got off at the wrong floor and refused to leave a different attorney's offices, Montgomery said.

That attorney later filed a complaint with the Judicial Inquiry Board, he said.

Brim also went to the Daley Center. After standing in the lobby for about 15 minutes, she asked deputies if any keys had been left at the security station that day, officers testified.

She then left with a set of keys and returned a few minutes later, throwing her own keys on the floor as a protest against the unjust judicial system, Montgomery said. Deputy Nicholas Leone testified that he noticed Brim's set included special security keys for opening courtrooms and judge's chambers in the building.

"I wanted to know why a civilian had those keys," Leone said.

Brim was walking east on Randolph Street and ignored requests from Deputy Herbert Edwards to stop, he testified.

Edwards said he finally stepped in front of her and stood his ground before she reached Dearborn Street, and that's when she shoved him, he testified. The judge was then taken to the lockup in the Daley Center's basement.

Sheriff's police began calling other judges to come help after Brim, who was identified as a judge, would not answer questions, Montgomery said.

Eventually Judge Pamela Hill-Veal, who is Brim's cousin, came to the lockup and answered questions for Brim, telling police Brim had no history of mental illness, Deputy Deborah Salzman testified. Hill-Veal even helped Brim sign her name on a medical questionnaire, Salzman said.

A message left for Hill-Veal after Monday's verdict was not returned.

Brim, who declined to comment, looked displeased after Brennan's verdict.

"Obviously she's not happy with the fact that she still has to undergo further evaluation to determine if she is in need of further mental treatment," said Montgomery, who noted Brim is already undergoing treatment.

For Sheila Murphy, the former presiding judge at the Markham courthouse, the issue is clear: Brim needs help.

Murphy has worked with the Lawyers' Assistance Program, which helps attorneys and judges with mental health and substance abuse issues, for more than three decades. Although Murphy said she knew of no other judge to have been found not guilty by reason of insanity, she said other judges have mental health issues for which they take medication.

"Judges are human beings. We get physically sick and have mental health issues like anybody else," said Murphy, who also is an adjunct professor at John Marshall Law School.

"The biggest issue is whether a judge can be responsive to the issues that come before him or her and can hear testimony and give it thought," she said. "But you have to have the mental state to do that. If you don't, you're going to have problems."

"Why shouldn't she be able to recover like anybody else with good doctors and valid assessments?" Murphy said.

Brim is scheduled to return to court March 15 for a hearing on her mental health treatment.

Tribune reporter Steve Mills contributed.

sschmadeke@tribune.com ___


(c)2013 the Chicago Tribune

Visit the Chicago Tribune at www.chicagotribune.com

Distributed by MCT Information Services


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/cynth...#ixzz2KRF9Ehga
Edit/Delete Message