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Old 01-24-2013, 10:50 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Sequester and/or Government Shutdown Approacheth

Anybody else ****ing fed up with this shit? 2013: Year of the Cliff.

Sequester hits March 1st. Government shutdown hits March 27th.

Here's the conversation on the fiscal cliff. Here's the conversation on the debt ceiling (which we'll be returning to by May... sigh).

The White House discusses the entirety of the impact in post 136. It's devastating.

Here's the FAQ on the sequester (from September):

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ter-explained/

The sequester, explained
Posted by Suzy Khimm
on September 14, 2012 at 2:35 pm

The White House has released its plan explaining how the sequester’s mandatory spending cuts to defense and domestic spending will be implemented in 2013. Here’s the background on what the sequester is, how it happened and what happens from here:

What is the sequester?

It’s a package of automatic spending cuts that’s part of the Budget Control Act (BCA), which was passed in August 2011. The cuts, which are projected to total $1.2 trillion, are scheduled to begin in 2013 and end in 2021, evenly divided over the nine-year period. The cuts are also evenly split between defense spending — with spending on wars exempt — and discretionary domestic spending, which exempts most spending on entitlements like Social Security and Medicaid, as the Bipartisan Policy Center explains. The total cuts for 2013 will be $109 billion, according to the new White House report.

Under the BCA, the cuts were triggered to take effect beginning Jan. 1 if the supercommittee didn’t to agree to a $1.2 trillion deficit-reduction package by Nov. 23, 2011. The group failed to reach a deal, so the sequester was triggered.

Why does everyone hate the sequester so much?

Legislators don’t have any discretion with the across-the-board cuts: They are intended to hit all affected programs equally, though the cuts to individual areas will range from 7.6 percent to 9.6 percent (and 2 percent to Medicare providers). The indiscriminate pain is meant to pressure legislators into making a budget deal to avoid the cuts.

How would these cuts affect the country?

Since the details just came out, it’s not entirely clear yet. But many top defense officials have warned that the cuts will lead the military to be “hollowed out.” Democratic legislators have similarly warned about the impact on vital social programs. And defense, health care and other industries that are significantly dependent on federal spending say that major job losses will happen if the cuts end up taking effect.

At the same time, if legislators try to avoid the sequester without replacing it with real deficit reduction, the U.S. could face another credit downgrade.

Why did Congress and the White House agree to the sequester in the first place?

The government was approaching its debt limit, which needed to be raised through a congressional vote or else the country would default in early August 2011. While Democrats were in favor of a “clean” vote without strings attached, Republicans were demanding substantial cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit.

President Obama and congressional leaders ultimately agreed to the BCA, which would allow the debt ceiling to be raised by $2.1 trillion in exchange for the establishment of the supercommittee tied to the fall-back sequester, as the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities explains. The deal also includes mandatory spending reductions on top of the sequester by putting caps on non-entitlement discretionary spending that will reduce funding by $1 trillion by 2021.

Who supported the debt-ceiling deal?

Party leaders, the White House and most members of Congress supported the debt-ceiling deal: The BCA passed on a 268-161 vote in the House, with about one-third of House Republicans and half of House Democrats opposing it. It passed in the Senate, 74-26, with six Democratic senators and 19 Republican senators opposing it.

Can the sequester be avoided?

Yes, but only if Congress passes another budget deal that would achieve at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction. Both Democrats and Republicans have offered proposals to do so, but there still isn’t much progress on a deal. The political obstacles are the same as during the supercommittee negotiations: Republicans don’t want to raise taxes to generate revenue, while Democrats are reluctant to make dramatic changes to entitlement programs to achieve savings.

What happens from here?

No one on Capitol Hill thinks any deal will happen before Election Day. After Nov. 6, Congress will have just a few weeks to come up with an alternative to the sequester. The challenge is complicated by the fact that the Bush tax cuts, the payroll tax, unemployment benefits and a host of other tax breaks are all scheduled to expire Dec. 31. The cumulative impact of all of these scheduled cuts and changes is what’s popularly known as the fiscal cliff. There’s already talk of passing a short-term stopgap budget plan during the lame-duck session to buy legislators more time to come up with a grand bargain.

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Old 02-21-2013, 08:51 AM   #241
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But...But... the Republicans have #Obamaquester

The Republicans are not idiots, they will see the real #'s privately and will close loopholes for the rich before or soon after the deadline just for self preservation purposes.
Why did closing loopholes become "close loopholes for the rich"? Do you guys ever get tired of fighting your class war instead of doing what's right for the country?

Direckshun, here's another example of what I was talking about when I said that liberals tend to want targeted tax treatments while conservatives were more inclined toward the same treatment for all.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:55 AM   #242
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I honestly think they're going to fly through the sequester, and hope the cudgel that slams the economy early in the month will weaken the DNP's resolve for the budget fight.

I don't know how successful that would be. Democrats have all the leverage right now, they've already raped the GOP on the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling.

The GOP got the great deal that they got in the summer of 2011 because they had the DNP convinced that they were willing to cut the baby in half. The DNP is calling this bluff over and over again now, and the GOP folds. Because, of course, they don't want the economy to tank.

But I don't think they can make another lopsided deal on the sequester and expect a lot of their candidates to survive the inevitable Tea Party primary challenges in 2014. So they'll stand their ground on the sequester, and try to drive pressure on the DNP during the budget fight.

The one exception to all this theorizing is that the GOP was rolled in these previous two cliff fights because the Obama administration was effective at getting the business community to lean incredibly hard on them, putting them in ever tenuous position -- they had to publicly claim they were willing to go off a cliff, while assuring businesses they had absolutely no interest in doing that. This of course robbed them of all their leverage. And I can't help but think the military industrial complex that the GOP has made a career out of supporting will be leaning on them incredibly hard on the sequester.

This time around, however, the GOP is trying to just pin the blame on Obama rather than assure anybody of anything. And, well, the polls suggest how well that's working out for them.
Why do you think there's going to be a "cudgel" slamming the economy? This sequestration is a tiny cut. It's brainless in the sense that it cuts the good with the bad, but it's tiny. Obama could fix the brainless part by simply working out a deal with Republicans to allow some of the cuts from the programs that least deserve to be cut to some other area, but as per his SOP, he doesn't want compromise, he wants conflict.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:02 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Why do you think there's going to be a "cudgel" slamming the economy? This sequestration is a tiny cut. It's brainless in the sense that it cuts the good with the bad, but it's tiny. Obama could fix the brainless part by simply working out a deal with Republicans to allow some of the cuts from the programs that least deserve to be cut to some other area, but as per his SOP, he doesn't want compromise, he wants conflict.
Sequestration is a $1.2 trillion cut over the next decade that will cost nearly 1 million jobs and plunge us into a double-dip recession.

One hopes it will be quickly dealt with in the budget showdown.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:18 AM   #244
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Agreed. I think that's why they pretty much have to hold out on the sequester.

But if they think a government shutdown has any political upside to it... well. If you refuse to learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.
Just so I can get my history lesson straight here, what should we have learned from history? Is it always the Republicans' fault? Always Congress' fault? What's the lesson?
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:19 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Sequestration is a $1.2 trillion cut over the next decade that will cost nearly 1 million jobs and plunge us into a double-dip recession.

One hopes it will be quickly dealt with in the budget showdown.
If the tiny cut that is sequestration is enough to punge us into a double-dip, the Obama economy, after a full four years, is pretty damned fragile. That's quite an indictment.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:23 AM   #246
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:28 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Why did closing loopholes become "close loopholes for the rich"? Do you guys ever get tired of fighting your class war instead of doing what's right for the country?

Direckshun, here's another example of what I was talking about when I said that liberals tend to want targeted tax treatments while conservatives were more inclined toward the same treatment for all.
Closing tax loopholes that only effect a few but bring in revenue are just a logical approach. Most bang for the buck. The spending cuts hit the other side's interest more hard than those tax loopholes of the rich.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:29 AM   #248
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:30 AM   #249
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Closing tax loopholes that only effect a few but bring in revenue are just a logical approach. Most bang for the buck. The spending cuts hit the other side's interest more hard than those tax loopholes of the rich.
I know you guys have fever dream rationalizations about why your class warfare is "logical", but it's bad for our country.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:44 AM   #250
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:46 AM   #251
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Just so I can get my history lesson straight here, what should we have learned from history? Is it always the Republicans' fault? Always Congress' fault? What's the lesson?
The previous budget showdown in the 90s against the previous, popular Democratic President was a political shitstorm for the GOP.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:47 AM   #252
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If the tiny cut that is sequestration
It's a $1.2 trillion cut.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:51 AM   #253
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There is No Possible Sequester Deal to be Made
—By Kevin Drum
Tue Feb. 19, 2013 5:44 PM PST

I've successfully avoided writing about the sequester over the last few days, but I'm curious: does anyone seriously think a deal is even possible? I don't quite see how. Here are the possibilities:
  • Eliminate the sequester entirely. Zero chance of Republicans agreeing to this.
  • Ditch the defense cuts, replace them with domestic cuts plus a tax increase. Zero chance of Republicans agreeing to this.
  • Ditch the defense cuts, double the domestic cuts. Zero chance of Democrats agreeing to this.
  • Ditch the defense cuts, keep the domestic cuts. Approximately zero chance of Democrats agreeing to this.
  • Kick the can down the road with some kind of small-ball deal. Possible, I guess.
Am I leaving out some possible permutation here? I can just barely imagine a small-ball deal, maybe one that's 100 percent spending cuts, maybe one that includes some kind of semi-hidden revenue increase. But that's about it. Every other possibility is substantially worse than the status quo to either Democrats or Republicans.

But for some reason we keep talking as if a deal is possible. So what am I missing here? As far as I can tell, neither side is genuinely trying to negotiate. They're just trying to make sure the other side gets the blame when sequestration kicks in, as it inevitably will.

So who's winning that game? A friend emails to say that this paragraph from Gloria Borger, a reliable barometer of DC conventional wisdom, suggests that Republicans are:

Quote:
The president proposes what he calls a "balanced" approach: closing tax loopholes on the rich and budget cuts. It's something he knows Republicans will never go for. They raised taxes six weeks ago, and they're not going to do it again now. They already gave at the office. And Republicans also say, with some merit, that taxes were never meant to be a part of the discussion of across-the-board cuts. It's about spending.
Sure enough, Borger unquestioningly accepts the Republican framing that (a) further tax increases are an absurdity and (b) the debt ceiling deal wasn't about reducing the deficit, it was about reducing spending. If this view is common deep in the lizard brains of the DC press corps, Obama has his work cut out for him.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:52 AM   #254
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:52 AM   #255
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