Economics The fiscal cliff could undo the recovery.

Direckshun · 12-22-2012, 12:02 AM

Should we not only take the tumble off the fiscal cliff on January 1st (which, after the GOP's "Plan B" implosion, I now regard as likely) and not get the drastic cuts and tax increases resolved before February (when the cliff is expected to start making its real presence felt), or if we have another debt ceiling standoff in March, we are potentially averting a real recovery.

I don't think we would be plunging into a recession, as the CBO projects it could, because Obama can manipulate when the tax increases actually take effect and he can slowly implement the cuts, radical as all these things are.

But what we are starting to see in the economy is the headwinds of a sturdy recovery that would set the table for a solid recovery in 2014:

Personal consumption rose 0.4 percent this past month.
Income rose 0.6 percent this month, including a 0.8 percent increase in disposable income -- a hugely important number, as that is more demand being injected into the economy.
The third quarter GDP was actually upgraded from 2.7 to 3.1 percent.
States have stopped acting as an incredible drag on the economy, though it may still be a couple years before they start contributing to our national GDP.
The tepid recovery we've had has occurred in spite of the housing market languishing. Well that dynamic is no more, the housing market is recovering much faster, and is now halfway back to normal.
Fourth quarter GDP is up.
As for employment, the numbers are better. 43 states and DC report lower unemployment rates, and unemployment now sits at 7.7% nationally.

The absolute only thing that can derail a recovery is ourselves.

We can shoot ourselves in the foot, that's it. A recovery will occur if we do not do that. A steady one in 2013, and a really good one in 2014, with housing gathering steam.

Prison Bitch · 12-22-2012, 12:15 AM

Gearing up for yet another "Recovery Summer", eh?

Direckshun · 12-22-2012, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Gearing up for yet another "Recovery Summer", eh?

What?

Comrade Crapski · 12-22-2012, 03:07 AM

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 12-22-2012, 04:34 AM

There is no doubt that the public would blame the GOP, and it would completely destroy that party for the foreseeable future. They'd disagree, but then again, they all were shocked it wasn't Romney in a landslide, so they don't exactly have the pulse of the people these days. We'll do what we always do, wait and see.

**RNR** · 12-22-2012, 04:40 AM

What recovery?

HonestChieffan · 12-22-2012, 06:19 AM

Its Barrys ball. Its his shot.

**RNR** · 12-22-2012, 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Its Barrys ball. Its his shot.

He planned for this, he is tickled shitless. Everybody pays more taxes and it is of course somebody else's fault. His cult type followers will buy his finger pointing hook line and sinker~

HonestChieffan · 12-22-2012, 06:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedNeckRaider

He planned for this, he is tickled shitless. Everybody pays more taxes and it is of course somebody else's fault. His cult type followers will buy his finger pointing hook line and sinker~

And he gets to spend like a madman. Pure win for him.

**Bwana** · 12-22-2012, 07:43 AM

Mercy

BucEyedPea · 12-22-2012, 08:39 AM

There's no recovery. It was always a bullshit claim with bogus numbers.

The bond market is going to burst anyway.

BucEyedPea · 12-22-2012, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

There is no doubt that the public would blame the GOP, and it would completely destroy that party for the foreseeable future. They'd disagree, but then again, they all were shocked it wasn't Romney in a landslide, so they don't exactly have the pulse of the people these days. We'll do what we always do, wait and see.

They'd only blame the GOP because the media told them that. The fact that so many have bought into this "fiscal cliff" is another example. If the congresses passes a budget, two versions and goes home...then Obama could be blamed too.

Radar Chief · 12-22-2012, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

There is no doubt that the public would blame the GOP, and it would completely destroy that party for the foreseeable future. They'd disagree, but then again, they all were shocked it wasn't Romney in a landslide, so they don't exactly have the pulse of the people these days. We'll do what we always do, wait and see.

Right, because the MSM won't let their guy take the hit and there are still enough gullible people in this country to buy what they're selling.

Ebolapox · 12-22-2012, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

There is no doubt that the public would blame the GOP, and it would completely destroy that party for the foreseeable future. They'd disagree, but then again, they all were shocked it wasn't Romney in a landslide, so they don't exactly have the pulse of the people these days. We'll do what we always do, wait and see.

the public is ****ing retarded then. this is on BOTH parties. why one party gets to skate while the other takes the whole blame is ****ing stupid.

FD · 12-22-2012, 10:29 AM

I don't understand why the stimulus skeptics aren't going around posting that the fiscal cliff will be completely harmless. After all, if tax cuts and spending projects don't boost the economy, why would tax hikes and spending cuts hurt it?

12-22-2012, 12:02 AM
Direckshun Black for Palestine Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $1166296	The fiscal cliff could undo the recovery. Should we not only take the tumble off the fiscal cliff on January 1st (which, after the GOP's "Plan B" implosion, I now regard as likely) and not get the drastic cuts and tax increases resolved before February (when the cliff is expected to start making its real presence felt), or if we have another debt ceiling standoff in March, we are potentially averting a real recovery. I don't think we would be plunging into a recession, as the CBO projects it could, because Obama can manipulate when the tax increases actually take effect and he can slowly implement the cuts, radical as all these things are. But what we are starting to see in the economy is the headwinds of a sturdy recovery that would set the table for a solid recovery in 2014: Personal consumption rose 0.4 percent this past month. Income rose 0.6 percent this month, including a 0.8 percent increase in disposable income -- a hugely important number, as that is more demand being injected into the economy. The third quarter GDP was actually upgraded from 2.7 to 3.1 percent. States have stopped acting as an incredible drag on the economy, though it may still be a couple years before they start contributing to our national GDP. The tepid recovery we've had has occurred in spite of the housing market languishing. Well that dynamic is no more, the housing market is recovering much faster, and is now halfway back to normal. Fourth quarter GDP is up. As for employment, the numbers are better. 43 states and DC report lower unemployment rates, and unemployment now sits at 7.7% nationally. The absolute only thing that can derail a recovery is ourselves. We can shoot ourselves in the foot, that's it. A recovery will occur if we do not do that. A steady one in 2013, and a really good one in 2014, with housing gathering steam.
Posts: 37,460

12-22-2012, 12:15 AM	#2
Prison Bitch Veteran Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Lees summit Casino cash: $18942	Gearing up for yet another "Recovery Summer", eh?
Posts: 2,765

12-22-2012, 03:07 AM	#4
Comrade Crapski Veteran Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $19182	__________________ I'm feeling good from my head to my shoes! Know where I'm going and I know what to do! Doo doo doo doo doo! I got a new attitude! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWfZ5SZZ4xE
Posts: 2,650

12-22-2012, 04:34 AM	#5
Mr. Flopnuts Banned Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Down the rabbit hole Casino cash: $113740886	There is no doubt that the public would blame the GOP, and it would completely destroy that party for the foreseeable future. They'd disagree, but then again, they all were shocked it wasn't Romney in a landslide, so they don't exactly have the pulse of the people these days. We'll do what we always do, wait and see.
Posts: 41,475

12-22-2012, 04:40 AM	#6
RNR More laws are not needed~ Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Close to the big pond~ Casino cash: $9695	What recovery? __________________ "They that give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." -Benjamin Franklin~
Posts: 20,973

12-22-2012, 06:19 AM	#7
HonestChieffan Hoffa called me an SOB Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the Country in MO Casino cash: $1220224	Its Barrys ball. Its his shot. __________________ "The best time to sell peanuts is when the circus is in town."
Posts: 21,872

12-22-2012, 07:43 AM	#10
Bwana GONE FISHING Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Billings, Montana Casino cash: $2107518006	Mercy __________________ A gun is like a parachute. If you need one, and don't have one... you'll probably never need one again.
Posts: 44,889

12-22-2012, 08:39 AM	#11
BucEyedPea Frazod Loves Hammy Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: None of your business Casino cash: $48238	There's no recovery. It was always a bullshit claim with bogus numbers. The bond market is going to burst anyway. __________________ "In government, the scum rises to the top."~ Hayek
Posts: 46,465

12-22-2012, 10:29 AM	#15
FD Veteran Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Austin, TX Casino cash: $1003069	I don't understand why the stimulus skeptics aren't going around posting that the fiscal cliff will be completely harmless. After all, if tax cuts and spending projects don't boost the economy, why would tax hikes and spending cuts hurt it? __________________ Homer: [looking at watch] Two hours? Why'd they build this ghost town so far away? Lisa: Because they discovered gold over there! Homer: It's because they're stupid, that's why. That's why everybody does everything.
Posts: 3,120

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