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Old 11-21-2012, 09:45 PM  
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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U.S. Deficit Shrinking At Fastest Pace Since WWII

http://news.investors.com/blogs-capi...rld-war-ii.htm



Believe it or not, the federal deficit has fallen faster over the past three years than it has in any such stretch since demobilization from World War II.

In fact, outside of that post-WWII era, the only time the deficit has fallen faster was when the economy relapsed in 1937, turning the Great Depression into a decade-long affair.

If U.S. history offers any guide, we are already testing the speed limits of a fiscal consolidation that doesn't risk backfiring. That's why the best way to address the fiscal cliff likely is to postpone it.

While long-term deficit reduction is important and deficits remain very large by historical standards, the reality is that the government already has its foot on the brakes.

In this sense, the "fiscal cliff" metaphor is especially poor. The government doesn't need to apply the brakes with more force to avoid disaster. Rather the "cliff" is an artificial one that has sprung up because the two parties are able to agree on so little.

Hopefully, they will agree, as they did at the end of 2010, to embrace their disagreement for a bit longer. That seems a reasonably likely outcome of negotiations because the most likely alternative to a punt is a compromise (expiration of the Bush tax cuts for the top and the payroll tax cut, along with modest spending cuts) that could still push the economy into recession.

Rather than applying additional fiscal restraint now, the government needs to make sure it sets the course for steady restraint once the economy emerges further from the deep employment hole that remains. In fact, a number of so-called deficit hawks are calling for short-term tax cuts to spur growth, rather than immediate austerity.

From fiscal 2009 to fiscal 2012, the deficit shrank 3.1 percentage points, from 10.1% to 7.0% of GDP.

That's just a bit faster than the 3.0 percentage point deficit improvement from 1995 to '98, but at that point, the economy had everything going for it.

Other occasions when the federal deficit contracted by much more than 1 percentage point a year have coincided with recession. Some examples include 1937, 1960 and 1969.

President Obama hasn't gotten much credit for reining in the deficit, probably because a big part of the deficit progress has come from the unwinding of extraordinary government supports that he helped put in place. Stimulus programs have come and mostly gone; the end of stimulus to states led them to enact Medicaid curbs; jobless benefits in recent months have fallen by 50% since early 2010 (due to both job gains and extended benefits being exhausted).

TARP and the bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also make the deficit improvement look better, boosting the fiscal '09 deficit by about $200 billion more than in fiscal '12 (though the initial cost of TARP was overstated).

Still, military spending is now on the decline due to fewer troops in Iraq and Afghanistan; Medicare costs rose 3% last year vs. the average 7% growth in recent years; and after the last year's Budget Control Act, excluding the automatic cuts set to take effect in January, nondefense discretionary spending is already on a path to shrink to 2.7% of GDP, well below the 3.9% average, notes the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
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Old 11-22-2012, 12:07 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by donkhater View Post
So Bush is to blame for the deficit in year one of Obama's presidency. Fine.

(Nevermind that Obama agreed with the policies that caused the explosion but I digress)
That's like saying Scott Pioli agreed with the decision to bring Matt Cassel to Kansas City. (But it was really Carl Peterson's fault).
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Old 11-22-2012, 01:16 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
This is a perfect example of how you can manipulate statistics to support whatever conclusion you wish. Every year of the Obama administration has resulted in deficits in excess of a TRILLION dollars, yet this article would have us believe that the Obama administration is the most fiscally responsible administration ever.

Trillion dollar deficits used to be an unthinkable nightmare scenario. Now when they happen every freaking year of the Obama administration, Obama is congratulated for his "fiscal restraint".

But hey, if it says it on the Internet, it must be true.
How much interest does the US pay every year on what Dubya added to the deficit?
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Old 11-22-2012, 01:46 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post


Liberals and their stupid facts....
Are these real numbers? Or partisan numbers?
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Old 11-22-2012, 01:46 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
That's like saying Scott Pioli agreed with the decision to bring Matt Cassel to Kansas City. (But it was really Carl Peterson's fault).
No. It's not. What an absurd analogy. Not even close, really.
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Old 11-22-2012, 01:48 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post


Liberals and their stupid facts....
The ability to use power point does not rely on facts. Try something that is sourced instead...



Or maybe from a site you can better understand...



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Old 11-22-2012, 02:02 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Are these real numbers? Or partisan numbers?
The arrangement of the numbers to move the $1.4 trillion in 2009 spending from Obama's ledger to Bush's ledger is extremely partisan. It doesn't get much more partisan than that.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:04 PM   #52
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How much interest does the US pay every year on what Dubya added to the deficit?
I haven't bothered to look it up.

Have you? Are you going to try to claim that the $5 Trillion Obama has added to the national debt consists of that?
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:07 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by donkhater View Post
No. It's not. What an absurd analogy. Not even close, really.
The analogy is spot on.

How about if you explain how it's absurd instead of just asserting it without offering anything to back up your assertion?

By the way, the analogy supported the point you made earlier. Are you sure you understood the analogy?
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:10 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
The arrangement of the numbers to move the $1.4 trillion in 2009 spending from Obama's ledger to Bush's ledger is extremely partisan. It doesn't get much more partisan than that.
maybe, but I could see an argument being made that the stimulus was done due to the Bush era policies and the housing/Wall street crash under Bush.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:20 PM   #55
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maybe, but I could see an argument being made that the stimulus was done due to the Bush era policies and the housing/Wall street crash under Bush.
That's certainly an argument that someone could make, and then a debate could take place regarding whether or not it's valid. But to arbitrarily move that number from Obama to Bush is dishonest, misleading, and extremely partisan. Obama was the President. He spent the money.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:22 PM   #56
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The analogy is spot on.

How about if you explain how it's absurd instead of just asserting it without offering anything to back up your assertion?

By the way, the analogy supported the point you made earlier. Are you sure you understood the analogy?
I try to abstain from explaining common sense to people, because if it needs explaining then I'm clearly talking with someone who doesn't have a lick of it.

However,

The analogy that WOULD have made sense is that if Peterson traded for Cassel and Pioli got the blame, but claim it doesn't matter since Pioli would've traded for him as well. But that's not what you wrote.

The analogy you wrote is absurd. Brainiac, indeed.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:38 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
The arrangement of the numbers to move the $1.4 trillion in 2009 spending from Obama's ledger to Bush's ledger is extremely partisan. It doesn't get much more partisan than that.
Not really. The fact is the government's fiscal year starts in October every year. That is 5 months prior to Obama taking over. After Bush got his budget passed he passed several appropriation bills for the Iraq and Afghanistan War and then of course the $700 billion dollar TARP.

Quote:
With projected receipts less than projected outlays, the budget proposed by President Bush predicted a net deficit of approximately $400 billion dollars, adding to a United States governmental debt of about $11.4 trillion. The actual spending signed into law in the final bill was increased by over $400 billion. And actual tax receipts totaled approximately $2.1 trillion, $600 billion less than the $2.7 trillion expected. The actual deficit in 2009 was $1.4 trillion.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:42 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by donkhater View Post
I try to abstain from explaining common sense to people, because if it needs explaining then I'm clearly talking with someone who doesn't have a lick of it.

However,

The analogy that WOULD have made sense is that if Peterson traded for Cassel and Pioli got the blame, but claim it doesn't matter since Pioli would've traded for him as well. But that's not what you wrote.

The analogy you wrote is absurd. Brainiac, indeed.
Um, no. The whole point of what I wrote is that the Obama supporters are trying to blame his predecessor for something Obama did. That would be like blaming Pioli's predecessor for something Pioli did.

I don't understand why that is so confusing for you. Perhaps your should spend more time working on reading comprehension and less time talking about how much common sense you have.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:55 PM   #59
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Old 11-22-2012, 03:10 PM   #60
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Not really. The fact is the government's fiscal year starts in October every year. That is 5 months prior to Obama taking over. After Bush got his budget passed he passed several appropriation bills for the Iraq and Afghanistan War and then of course the $700 billion dollar TARP.
I'll concede the point that HALF of the $700 billion dollar TARP could legitimately be charged to Bush, because the TARP bill passed while he was President and he spent $350 billion of it. However, Obama was not only fully on board with the TARP program, he actually asked Bush to release the remaining $350 billion before Obama even took office.

I'll agree that it can be a little tricky figuring out exactly who is responsible for the respective portions of that $1.4 trillion deficit for 2009. But to just arbitrarily charge all of it to Bush is extremely misleading and inaccurate.
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