Romney wasn't lying

[alnorth]

...he apparently really did have one speech. He was so incredibly confident that he was going to win, that not just losing, but losing decisively "shellshocked" him.

You'd hope that regardless of what the right-wing voters tell themselves or ignore, that a national campaign would know the facts. It probably would not have made a difference, but by not knowing they were behind, they wasted time trying to expand the map in un-winnable states to create a more decisive victory and a mandate, thinking they were solid in the states they needed for 270.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-...oss/?pageNum=1

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'm admittedly not much of an expert on this type of polling, but I find the fact that they just randomly assumed that the turnout would be the same as 2004 to be very strange. I don't know how you make that assumption without any good reason to do so.

Well, making assumptions about how many of each group will vote is fine. It is absolutely required because whites and older people answer the phone more often than other groups.

The fact that Romney's campaign thought that black voters would stay home when a black president is running for re-election, or that hispanics wouldn't turn out for a guy basically offering amnesty, is weird. The white vote has been on a long, slow, inexorable decline with one exception during Bush's re-election I think when it ticked up. Obama's campaign presumed that white voters would come down another 1 or 2 percent, consistent with the long-term trend.

What is astonishing to me is that the young voters turned out again. (about half, which sounds bad but for young voters that is historically very, very high) Its becoming clear that although Generation X was a bunch of lazy slackers in the 1990's with really pathetic turnout in the 30's during their younger years, the Millennials are going to be far more reliable as voters.

[KChiefer]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Other bits of overconfident hilarity:

The campaign spent $25K on an 8-minute fireworks show to celebrate victory. The fireworks obviously were unloaded from the barge and sent back.

I hope The White House buys them at an inflated cost and uses them next 4th.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by alnorth

What is astonishing to me is that the young voters turned out again. (about half, which sounds bad but for young voters that is historically very, very high) Its becoming clear that although Generation X was a bunch of lazy slackers in the 1990's with really pathetic turnout in the 30's during their younger years, the Millennials are going to be far more reliable as voters.

I wonder if you could say that social media has had a hand in that. While it was basically cool to stay home in the 90's and just be isolated, these days Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, etc. are all basically non-stop "Go Vote" machines around election day.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Well, making assumptions about how many of each group will vote is fine. It is absolutely required because whites and older people answer the phone more often than other groups.

The fact that Romney's campaign thought that black voters would stay home when a black president is running for re-election, or that hispanics wouldn't turn out for a guy basically offering amnesty, is weird. The white vote has been on a long, slow, inexorable decline with one exception during Bush's re-election I think when it ticked up. Obama's campaign presumed that white voters would come down another 1 or 2 percent, consistent with the long-term trend.

What is astonishing to me is that the young voters turned out again. (about half, which sounds bad but for young voters that is historically very, very high) Its becoming clear that although Generation X was a bunch of lazy slackers in the 1990's with really pathetic turnout in the 30's during their younger years, the Millennials are going to be far more reliable as voters.

I know a gay guy that voted solely because Obama reversed his stand on the gay issues. I don't think that was sincere of Obama but for the election. The students that dorm with my daughter voted for Obama for social issues more. Many of them were Hispanics with foreign parents getting a free ride.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by alnorth

What is astonishing to me is that the young voters turned out again. (about half, which sounds bad but for young voters that is historically very, very high) Its becoming clear that although Generation X was a bunch of lazy slackers in the 1990's with really pathetic turnout in the 30's during their younger years, the Millennials are going to be far more reliable as voters.

Larger in numbers. Gen Y (Millennials) are the largest group in history. They will blow by Gen X fairly quickly - politically, jobs, etc.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I wonder if you could say that social media has had a hand in that. While it was basically cool to stay home in the 90's and just be isolated, these days Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, etc. are all basically non-stop "Go Vote" machines around election day.

The millennials are going to be a really big problem for republicans. They aren't even all voting age yet, and demographically the millennials are going to be bigger than the baby boomers. (Gen X and the generation before that were both fairly small in comparison.)

They may eventually turn more conservative when they hit their 30's, but for the next several elections, thats yet another roadblock for the GOP.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Larger in numbers. Gen Y (Millennials) are the largest group in history. They will blow by Gen X fairly quickly - politically, jobs, etc.

My daughter is a Millennial. She said about half the college students she knew were either for Obama or Ron Paul. The Evangelicals, since she's in the Bible Belt, went for Mitt. Obviously, Paul was knocked out. Who knows how many of them voted for Gary Johnson, Mitt or Obama. But the war issue is a big one for them...and the Republicans suck on that front. However, Obama is just more covert about that and sounds anti-war. Give them time to see that.

Charts I saw showed Mitt getting 49% of Independent vote to Obama's 45%.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by alnorth

The millennials are going to be a really big problem for republicans. They aren't even all voting age yet, and demographically the millennials are going to be bigger than the baby boomers. (Gen X and the generation before that were both fairly small in comparison.)

They may eventually turn more conservative when they hit their 30's, but for the next several elections, thats yet another roadblock for the GOP.

Dr. Drew said a lot of them lean more libertarian than social democrat. So I don't see it hurting the Republicans that badly, if they really are not for high taxes and job opportunities and a chance to make it rich. That appeals to them too.

If not, then the public schools have done a much better job churning out lickspittles for big govt.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea

Well, you can blame Romney for compromising his integrity by pandering. It's not just Santorum's fault.

I think we all know that to win an election, you have no choice but to pander. But I would rather a person be insincere about pandering to stupid positions than a shithead like Santorum who actually believes what he said. One of the reasons I actually liked Romney.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea

My daughter is a Millennial. She said about half the college students she knew were either for Obama or Ron Paul. The Evangelicals, since she's in the Bible Belt, went for Mitt. Obviously, Paul was knocked out. Who knows how many of them voted for Gary Johnson, Mitt or Obama. But the war issue is a big one for them...and the Republicans suck on that front. However, Obama is just more covert about that and sounds anti-war. Give them time to see that.

Charts I saw showed Mitt getting 49% of Independent vote to Obama's 45%.

Romney would have crushed Obama among independents if the conservatives didn't draw out the primary by marching Santorum out there for months on end.

[FD]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I wonder if you could say that social media has had a hand in that. While it was basically cool to stay home in the 90's and just be isolated, these days Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, etc. are all basically non-stop "Go Vote" machines around election day.

I think this is dead on, this younger generation is going to be a lot more engaged politically. I also think the GOP will never win this group until it drops its anti-gay positions/rhetoric.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Romney would have crushed Obama among independents if the conservatives didn't draw out the primary by marching Santorum out there for months on end.

No one marched Santorum out except Santorum who had enough votes to remain in for the time he did.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I think we all know that to win an election, you have no choice but to pander. But I would rather a person be insincere about pandering to stupid positions than a shithead like Santorum who actually believes what he said. One of the reasons I actually liked Romney.

Well unfortunately, Mitt just pandered way too much. Wholesale phoney. You just like him.
He was a Massachusetts liberal who ran to the left of Ted Kennedy in 1994 in Mass and governed the state like Mario Cuomo.

[alnorth]

random millennial trivia: they love wine. Go figure.

Beer obviously will always be king among alcohol, but the millennials have been fueling a strong wine comeback, drinking wine far more often than Gen X did when they were their age or even now. Wineries now openly cater to them, host wedding receptions, etc.

[underEJ]

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea

I know a gay guy that voted solely because Obama reversed his stand on the gay issues. I don't think that was sincere of Obama but for the election. The students that dorm with my daughter voted for Obama for social issues more. Many of them were Hispanics with foreign parents getting a free ride.

I think you are right about the sincerity, but I think the insincere act was actually before the first election, saying he opposed gay marriage in the first place. I don't think he ever did oppose it.