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Old 11-08-2012, 03:02 PM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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NS: Romney would have had to win the popular vote by 3 percent to win the EC

I know he's a biased liberal and all, but this should be very troubling to the R's over the next decade.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-disadvantage/

As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage
By NATE SILVER

Two more presidential elections, 2016 and 2020, will be contested under the current Electoral College configuration, which gave Barack Obama a second term on Tuesday. This year’s results suggest that this could put Republicans at a structural disadvantage.

Based on a preliminary analysis of the returns, Mitt Romney may have had to win the national popular vote by three percentage points on Tuesday to be assured of winning the Electoral College. The last Republican to accomplish that was George H.W. Bush, in 1988.

(more at the link)
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:10 PM   #16
listopencil listopencil is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HemiEd View Post
You really missed my question, or I don't understand how your answer relates to it.

Or are you answering the strategy one?

Clearly the Obama "ground force" strategy of working the minorities into a majority is what won the election for him, once he convinced them that Romney was the devil.

Of course, if you watched any of the Chicago politics, Jesse Jackson Jr. was also re-elected to congress after not even being on the job for months with the Blago black could hanging over him.

They also re-elected a 10 district rep that has been indicted but those of us that voted for Romney are angry racist old white men.

You made the statement that the GOP needs to get a candidate "that isn't crap" and I asked you why this didn't apply to the Dems? As far as I am concerned, their candidate was crap.

Yeah, I was thinking of the strategy involved when both candidates are crap. Neither side could win the election based on the strength of the candidate so what we got was a lot of electoral strategy. The Dems were better at it and they won.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:15 PM   #17
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
I knew the dems now had a structural advantage in the electoral college, but I didn't realize it was that massive. He's right though, Romney completely obliterated Obama in the south.

This is gerry-mandering on a national scale. The republicans in several states clumped black and hispanic voters together in districts to guarantee a democrat would win that seat 80-20, but that allowed them to spread their white votes out more to take everything else by 5-10 points for example.

Same here. Dems have big vote sinks in NY, CA, and the other New England states, but the entire massive south is one great big Republican vote sink. The dems are more spread out. When people on the right go "screw this, I'm moving to Texas", thats fine for them, but if everyone does that, then its hard for the Republicans to win the white house.
All you need to know:

More votes were cast for Democratic House candidates than Republican House candidates this year by almost a million, nationally.

Yet Republicans hold a 20-something seat advantage.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:18 PM   #18
KCTitus KCTitus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
That worked out pretty well last time. Only a few million dead.
Yep...fewer mouths to feed and fewer people to re-educate.
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