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Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:03 PM   #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
As of now, #1 overall pick odds:

Chiefs 66%
Jags 24%
Browns 6%
Field 4%
I know it is unprecedented since the merger, but did we ever have the number 1 pick back in the AFL days? it still would not be the same since they were competing with the NFL, of course. it seems like maybe Buck Buchanan was a number 1 overall. ( just to be clear, buck was not a quarterback
.)
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:59 PM   #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
I know it is unprecedented since the merger, but did we ever have the number 1 pick back in the AFL days? it still would not be the same since they were competing with the NFL, of course. it seems like maybe Buck Buchanan was a number 1 overall. ( just to be clear, buck was not a quarterback
.)
Yes, Buck buchanan WAS the number one overall, but we got the pick by trading a QB (Cotton Davidson) to the raiders. crazy, huh?
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:15 PM   #108
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Yes, Buck buchanan WAS the number one overall, but we got the pick by trading a QB (Cotton Davidson) to the raiders. crazy, huh?
Well, that's odd.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:11 PM   #109
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Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:14 PM   #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

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Old 11-25-2012, 03:17 PM   #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.
sweet

good news
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:17 PM   #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.
If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:19 PM   #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stanley Nickels View Post
If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.
The odds of that happening are officially 0%. Wanna bet on it?
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:20 PM   #114
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Now we need to be lucky and good with that draft pick. We need a front office in place that will choose the franchise QB instead of the bust. Maybe that's Geno Smith, maybe one of the other guys, but we can't F it up.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:21 PM   #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stanley Nickels View Post
If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.
No. The only tiebreaker for draft pick is strength of schedule. Head to head means nothing. And we don't play the Jags.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:23 PM   #116
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If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:24 PM   #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FringeNC View Post
Now we need to be lucky and good with that draft pick. We need a front office in place that will choose the franchise QB instead of the bust. Maybe that's Geno Smith, maybe one of the other guys, but we can't F it up.
QBs are too risky. we should take Guard / Tackle Hugh Thornton out of Illinois. Cassel is a pro bowl qb when he has some protection

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Old 11-25-2012, 03:24 PM   #118
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If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.
why don't you update the opening post?
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:24 PM   #119
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If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.
I can't wait until we reach the point where we can root for a win and not lose draft ground.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:24 PM   #120
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Rain Man, you are okay wishing for the Chiefs to win one game. That's it though. Choose wisely.
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