Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 - Page 7

cdcox · 02:26 PM

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being *****ed by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

NJChiefsFan · 11-05-2012, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl

I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017

Oh damn, good point. To avoid this I am now going to root for them to win a couple games and finish like 5-11. It won't due us any good whatsoever but at least the world will be black and white to me again. Admitting there is a grey area gives me a headache anyway........

Branden Albert's Huge Balls · 11-05-2012, 04:02 PM

It should be pointed out that we have a 62 percent chance at the #1 pick.

The next closest team,JAX, is only at 20 percent and Cleveland is at 9 percent.

Bo's Pelini · 11-05-2012, 04:05 PM

How the **** is Jax only at 20%?

Sorter · 11-05-2012, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini

How the **** is Jax only at 20%?

No idea. They have to play the Titans 2X, the NYJ, Miami and Buffalo. I could see them winning 2-3 games.

Branden Albert's Huge Balls · 11-05-2012, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini

How the **** is Jax only at 20%?

Because we are that ****ing bad.

We have been blown out MORE than the Jags this year AND over the last four years.

cdcox · 11-13-2012, 06:23 PM

Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.

**DeezNutz** · 11-13-2012, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.

I must have missed a game...

stonedstooge · 11-13-2012, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.

HELL YES, LET'S DANCE

cdcox · 11-13-2012, 07:16 PM

Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.

**HemiEd** · 11-13-2012, 07:50 PM

Oh cool, sign ***** to an extension while they are hot

tk13 · 11-13-2012, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.

I guess that's not too surprising. Even though the AFC has improved a bit... right now the six playoff teams are the only teams with winning records. The 1st team out of the playoffs is still the Chargers at 4-5, but they're two games out of the 6 seed.

On the flipside, the Steelers could be hurting now too with Ben out. The AFC is in pretty rough shape. The most amazing thing may be how great our odds to be the worst team are. There aren't many world beaters out there.

cdcox · 11-18-2012, 03:02 PM

As of now, #1 overall pick odds:

Chiefs 66%
Jags 24%
Browns 6%
Field 4%

cdcox · 11-18-2012, 03:04 PM

As of now, Chiefs still not eliminated from division title or WC game.

mr. tegu · 11-18-2012, 03:08 PM

Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.

scho63 · 11-18-2012, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.

I was rooting so hard for them

09-26-2012, 08:12 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362111	Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 nfl-forecast.com is back for another season. After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being ***ed by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16** KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
Posts: 28,079

11-05-2012, 04:02 PM	#92
Branden Albert's Huge Balls ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen Casino cash: $151683	It should be pointed out that we have a 62 percent chance at the #1 pick. The next closest team,JAX, is only at 20 percent and Cleveland is at 9 percent. __________________ Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 150,212

11-05-2012, 04:05 PM	#93
Bo's Pelini Winner Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: My house Casino cash: $1985814	How the **** is Jax only at 20%?
Posts: 29,511

11-13-2012, 06:23 PM	#96
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362111	Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.
Posts: 28,079

11-13-2012, 07:16 PM	#99
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362111	Factoids. If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8. Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.
Posts: 28,079

11-13-2012, 07:50 PM	#100
HemiEd Same ol, same ol, 2009 again Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicagoland Casino cash: $7230989	Oh cool, sign ***** to an extension while they are hot __________________ Everyone on board the 10 and 6 train, toot toot! Smith, Cassel, Thigpen, Huard, Green, Grbac, Gannon, Bono, Montana, Kreig, DeBerg, Kenney, Fuller, Livingston Don't dare take a chance on achieving excellence at the risk of failing at mediocrity.
Posts: 23,274

11-18-2012, 03:02 PM	#102
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362111	As of now, #1 overall pick odds: Chiefs 66% Jags 24% Browns 6% Field 4%
Posts: 28,079

11-18-2012, 03:04 PM	#103
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362111	As of now, Chiefs still not eliminated from division title or WC game.
Posts: 28,079

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