Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $18801
Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 32,606
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 03:18 PM   #91
NJChiefsFan NJChiefsFan is offline
I've Made a Huge Mistake
 
NJChiefsFan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: NJ
Casino cash: $6499
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pawnmower View Post
wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl


I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017
Oh damn, good point. To avoid this I am now going to root for them to win a couple games and finish like 5-11. It won't due us any good whatsoever but at least the world will be black and white to me again. Admitting there is a grey area gives me a headache anyway........
Posts: 5,248
NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.NJChiefsFan wants to die in a aids tree fire.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 05:02 PM   #92
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is online now
Count the checkdowns, too.
 
Count Alex's Losses's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $38257
It should be pointed out that we have a 62 percent chance at the #1 pick.

The next closest team,JAX, is only at 20 percent and Cleveland is at 9 percent.
__________________
Better to be the bastard child of a king and his whore than to be a ****ing peasant at the shite homer trough.
Posts: 171,954
Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 05:05 PM   #93
Chocolate Hog Chocolate Hog is offline
Winner
 
Chocolate Hog's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: My house
Casino cash: $13545
How the **** is Jax only at 20%?
Posts: 35,338
Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 05:14 PM   #94
Sorter Sorter is offline
Caralho
 
Sorter's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2011
Casino cash: $13591
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini View Post
How the **** is Jax only at 20%?
No idea. They have to play the Titans 2X, the NYJ, Miami and Buffalo. I could see them winning 2-3 games.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavericks Ace View Post
I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mav View Post
Alex Smith is awful.... there, I said it
Posts: 16,185
Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sorter is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 05:15 PM   #95
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is online now
Count the checkdowns, too.
 
Count Alex's Losses's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $38257
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini View Post
How the **** is Jax only at 20%?
Because we are that ****ing bad.

We have been blown out MORE than the Jags this year AND over the last four years.
__________________
Better to be the bastard child of a king and his whore than to be a ****ing peasant at the shite homer trough.
Posts: 171,954
Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:23 PM   #96
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $18801
Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.
Posts: 32,606
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:58 PM   #97
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
PermaBanned
 
DeezNutz's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Jouissance
Casino cash: $8710
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.
I must have missed a game...
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgirl View Post
If you met me in person and didn't know who I was you would never guess it was me.
Posts: 47,038
DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 08:06 PM   #98
stonedstooge stonedstooge is offline
Arf! Arf! Arf!
 
stonedstooge's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: North
Casino cash: $19897
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.
HELL YES, LET'S DANCE
__________________
2013 ADOPT A CHIEF
Eric Kush




"Often is a word I seldom use"--JP
Posts: 22,609
stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.stonedstooge is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 08:16 PM   #99
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $18801
Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.
Posts: 32,606
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 08:50 PM   #100
HemiEd HemiEd is offline
Hummingbird watcher
 
HemiEd's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ozarks
Casino cash: $6297
Oh cool, sign Pioli to an extension while they are hot
__________________
Chiefnj2: "Sure it's hard to do, that's why you need an elite QB. Just like its hard to lead your team to a victory from a 4 score deficit. Some guys can do it, others get traded to the Chiefs."
Posts: 24,480
HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.HemiEd has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 09:04 PM   #101
tk13 tk13 is offline
...
 
tk13's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2001
Casino cash: $18860
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.
I guess that's not too surprising. Even though the AFC has improved a bit... right now the six playoff teams are the only teams with winning records. The 1st team out of the playoffs is still the Chargers at 4-5, but they're two games out of the 6 seed.

On the flipside, the Steelers could be hurting now too with Ben out. The AFC is in pretty rough shape. The most amazing thing may be how great our odds to be the worst team are. There aren't many world beaters out there.
Posts: 37,445
tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2012, 04:02 PM   #102
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $18801
As of now, #1 overall pick odds:

Chiefs 66%
Jags 24%
Browns 6%
Field 4%
Posts: 32,606
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2012, 04:04 PM   #103
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $18801
As of now, Chiefs still not eliminated from division title or WC game.
Posts: 32,606
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2012, 04:08 PM   #104
mr. tegu mr. tegu is offline
Hopeful for playoffs
 
mr. tegu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Casino cash: $11539
Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.
Posts: 9,593
mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.mr. tegu is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2012, 04:17 PM   #105
scho63 scho63 is offline
Politically Incorrect
 
scho63's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Virginia
Casino cash: $686
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.
I was rooting so hard for them
__________________
---
"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!"
~Redd Foxx~



2013 2014 ADOPT A CHIEF
MIKE CATAPANO -MIA SEPT 2014
Posts: 5,308
scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.scho63 is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:54 PM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.