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Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 10-17-2012, 08:06 AM   #76
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Old 10-17-2012, 10:00 AM   #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
Heh, yeah I could see Chrome Dome trading off the number one pick for extra picks and picking up a scrub QB in round 3. I wouldn't be all that shocked. The board would go into a meltdown like it has never seen before.
You're forgetting something. The Chiefs don't draft quarterbacks in Round 3.
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Old 10-29-2012, 01:55 AM   #78
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Old 10-29-2012, 03:15 AM   #79
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Old 10-29-2012, 04:07 AM   #80
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So wer're mathematically out of the playoffs for sure now?
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Old 10-29-2012, 04:39 AM   #81
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So wer're mathematically out of the playoffs for sure now?
The AFC is bad and the Chiefs haven't even reached 8 losses yet, so no.

Probably have another month to go before they are mathematically, assuming they continue to go winless.
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Old 10-29-2012, 04:44 AM   #82
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The AFC is bad and the Chiefs haven't even reached 8 losses yet, so no.

Probably have another month to go before they are mathematically, assuming they continue to go winless.
yea thats what I thought. Just wondered because the graph says 0%
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:43 PM   #83
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:46 PM   #84
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wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl


I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:47 PM   #85
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:48 PM   #86
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:14 AM   #87
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That first one is like the size of my boner the closer we get to the top pick.

I just hope Clark fires Pioli because if he doesn't I would put it at 50-50 of Pioli taking a qb at that spot of trading down and taking another position and taking a qb in the second or third round.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:22 AM   #88
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wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl


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Don't do that!
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:27 AM   #89
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Omaha. Can we outsuck Jax? Omaha.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:30 AM   #90
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Omaha. Can we outsuck Jax? Omaha.
Jax would beat us by 20. We are the worst team any of us will ever watch.
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