Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge
Reload this Page Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
Register FAQDonate Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

Reply
Page 5 of 31 1234 5 678915 Last »
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $1362456
Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being *****ed by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).
Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
Posts: 28,128
cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-14-2012, 11:12 PM   #61
Ebolapox Ebolapox is offline
remember, remember
 
Ebolapox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2002
Casino cash: $18671641
keep losing, baby.
Posts: 24,682
Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-14-2012, 11:14 PM   #62
BossChief BossChief is offline
Here we go again.
 
BossChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: BF Iowa
Casino cash: $5327831
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Unofficially, we're up to 23% chance of getting the overall #1. NO is in front of us, but I think most people think they aren't serious contenders for that position. This is shaping up nicely.
NO is the only team in front of us?
__________________
Posts: 24,127
BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-14-2012, 11:26 PM   #63
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $1362456
Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
NO is the only team in front of us?
Yep, from an odds perspective. Jacksonville is at around 15%, and Cleveland is around 10%. Everyone else is below 10%.
Posts: 28,128
cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2012, 12:27 AM   #64
bowener bowener is offline
I'm hammered
 
bowener's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Casino cash: $1204677
**** YEAH!!
__________________
Main Entry: bowe·ner
Pronunciation: \ˈbō-nər\
Function: noun
Date: circa 2007
Posts: 6,518
bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.bowener Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2012, 12:45 AM   #65
Unsmooth-Moment Unsmooth-Moment is online now
Starter
 
Unsmooth-Moment's Avatar
 
Beer Shooter Champion Darts & Beer Champion
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: MO
Casino cash: $1508381
We suck so good!
Posts: 546
Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.Unsmooth-Moment is not part of the Right 53.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2012, 01:59 AM   #66
AussieChiefsFan AussieChiefsFan is offline
ˇMayday! .... All Day ...
 
AussieChiefsFan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sydney, Australia
Casino cash: $26023285
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsmooth-Moment View Post
We suck so good!
For once.
__________________
Posts: 7,437
AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 09:24 AM   #67
Branden Albert's Huge Balls Branden Albert's Huge Balls is offline
ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH
 
Branden Albert's Huge Balls's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen
Casino cash: $152830
__________________
Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 150,419
Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 09:36 AM   #68
Sofa King Sofa King is offline
Flop's Gonna Feed My Goldfish
 
Sofa King's Avatar
 
Archery 2000 Champion Castlevania Champion Darten Champion Darts Beginning - 501 Champion Hexxagon Champion
Penguin Bashing Champion Super Mario World Flash Champion X-Training Champion Yeti Sports 8- Jungle Swing Champion
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: South Dakota
Casino cash: $242937030
Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville need to start winning games. The others I think will manage a couple wins, Carolina, NO (should win a bunch).
__________________
Posts: 18,511
Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.Sofa King is obviously part of the inner Circle.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 09:39 AM   #69
ct ct is offline
FF Junkie
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Casino cash: $20880
this is such a tease. damn how I wish it could happen, even dreaming this organization is trying to MAKE it happen. just don't believe it will. we'll win a few and screw it up.
Posts: 5,862
ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.ct must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 09:55 AM   #70
Buckweath Buckweath is offline
Starter
 
Buckweath's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Quebec, Canada
Casino cash: $7304
Best thing that could happen to this franchise what's happening now. You're not winning a SB with anything below a top 10 QB, simple as that. Not that it's the only problem with this franchise but by far the biggest.
Posts: 669
Buckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking aboutBuckweath is the dumbass Milkman is always talking about
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 10:41 PM   #71
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $1362456
I just ran the official numbers for this week and we are now the favorites for the #1 overall pick with a 42% chance.
Posts: 28,128
cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 10:44 PM   #72
NJChiefsFan NJChiefsFan is offline
I've Made a Huge Mistake
 
NJChiefsFan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: NJ
Casino cash: $986177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sofa King View Post
Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville need to start winning games. The others I think will manage a couple wins, Carolina, NO (should win a bunch).
Oakland and JAC play this weekend so that's a win for somebody. I would say I hope JAC wins because I think Oakland will be able to win a couple games. Hell, they have us twice. If we are going to have a terrible record it means we are giving a game or two to them so I would say JAC needs to win this game.

Cleveland not only plays us but has shown me enough to think they will steal a few. Underrated defense, QB who has looked good in a few games, and a good RB. JAC is the one I am most worried about. If we lose to OAK coming out of the by I am going to start getting excited.
__________________
6 of 12 QB's in the playoffs are 1st or 2nd year players. Oh how scary it is to go young at the QB position.
Posts: 4,904
NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.NJChiefsFan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 10:45 PM   #73
BossChief BossChief is offline
Here we go again.
 
BossChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: BF Iowa
Casino cash: $5327831
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I just ran the official numbers for this week and we are now the favorites for the #1 overall pick with a 42% chance.
You are doing Gods work.
__________________
Posts: 24,127
BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2012, 06:11 AM   #74
Guru Guru is offline
BANNED
 
Guru's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Middle of the USA
Casino cash: $55082374
YOu guys are forgetting one very important fact. The Chiefs don't draft QBs in the first round.
__________________
But there is no RGIII or Luck in this draft. /truefan
Posts: 47,735
Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Guru has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2012, 06:56 AM   #75
Bwana Bwana is offline
GONE FISHING
 
Bwana's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Billings, Montana
Casino cash: $2107518261
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guru View Post
YOu guys are forgetting one very important fact. The Chiefs don't draft QBs in the first round.
Heh, yeah I could see Chrome Dome trading off the number one pick for extra picks and picking up a scrub QB in round 3. I wouldn't be all that shocked. The board would go into a meltdown like it has never seen before.
__________________
A gun is like a parachute. If you need one, and don't have one...
you'll probably never need one again.
Posts: 44,923
Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.
   Reply With Quote
Reply
Page 5 of 31 1234 5 678915 Last »

« Previous Thread | > The Lounge < | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:49 PM.

Contact Us - ChiefsPlanet - Archive - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.