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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 10-14-2012, 11:12 PM   #61
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Old 10-14-2012, 11:14 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Unofficially, we're up to 23% chance of getting the overall #1. NO is in front of us, but I think most people think they aren't serious contenders for that position. This is shaping up nicely.
NO is the only team in front of us?
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Old 10-14-2012, 11:26 PM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
NO is the only team in front of us?
Yep, from an odds perspective. Jacksonville is at around 15%, and Cleveland is around 10%. Everyone else is below 10%.
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Old 10-15-2012, 12:27 AM   #64
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Old 10-15-2012, 12:45 AM   #65
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Old 10-15-2012, 01:59 AM   #66
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For once.
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Old 10-16-2012, 09:24 AM   #67
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Old 10-16-2012, 09:36 AM   #68
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Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville need to start winning games. The others I think will manage a couple wins, Carolina, NO (should win a bunch).
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Old 10-16-2012, 09:39 AM   #69
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this is such a tease. damn how I wish it could happen, even dreaming this organization is trying to MAKE it happen. just don't believe it will. we'll win a few and screw it up.
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Old 10-16-2012, 09:55 AM   #70
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Best thing that could happen to this franchise what's happening now. You're not winning a SB with anything below a top 10 QB, simple as that. Not that it's the only problem with this franchise but by far the biggest.
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Old 10-16-2012, 10:41 PM   #71
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I just ran the official numbers for this week and we are now the favorites for the #1 overall pick with a 42% chance.
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cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
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Old 10-16-2012, 10:44 PM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sofa King View Post
Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville need to start winning games. The others I think will manage a couple wins, Carolina, NO (should win a bunch).
Oakland and JAC play this weekend so that's a win for somebody. I would say I hope JAC wins because I think Oakland will be able to win a couple games. Hell, they have us twice. If we are going to have a terrible record it means we are giving a game or two to them so I would say JAC needs to win this game.

Cleveland not only plays us but has shown me enough to think they will steal a few. Underrated defense, QB who has looked good in a few games, and a good RB. JAC is the one I am most worried about. If we lose to OAK coming out of the by I am going to start getting excited.
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Old 10-16-2012, 10:45 PM   #73
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Quote:
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I just ran the official numbers for this week and we are now the favorites for the #1 overall pick with a 42% chance.
You are doing Gods work.
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Old 10-17-2012, 06:11 AM   #74
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YOu guys are forgetting one very important fact. The Chiefs don't draft QBs in the first round.
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Old 10-17-2012, 06:56 AM   #75
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YOu guys are forgetting one very important fact. The Chiefs don't draft QBs in the first round.
Heh, yeah I could see Chrome Dome trading off the number one pick for extra picks and picking up a scrub QB in round 3. I wouldn't be all that shocked. The board would go into a meltdown like it has never seen before.
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