Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

[cdcox]

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

[NJChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.

I don't believe that. I have seen way too many things happen when this team did the opposite of what they should. Some of the wins last year are a perfect example. Beating GB, beating CHI because of a hail mary. They may lose because they don't give a shit about anything but I doubt a bunch of players are going to join together for the good of the franchise.

[Branden Albert's Huge Balls]

That team had a fighter's chance at the playoffs though.

Different.

The players aren't going to join together but anyone can be benched, the game can be called a certain way.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.

Why would Romeo purposefully lose to Denver if his job is on the line? Unless he's being kept. I doubt the players care about a draft pick.

[Branden Albert's Huge Balls]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

Why would Romeo purposefully lose to Denver if his job is on the line? Unless he's being kept.

He knows he is gone.

In fact, I bet he's got his cruise trip all lined up.

[Guru]

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.

Bet they won't. They will try to win all three games. Hell, even Indy won 2 games late in the season last year.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

He knows he is gone.

In fact, I bet he's got his cruise trip all lined up.

So you think he puts in a bullshit work week that week, and rolls over?

Maybe it's just me, but I've never bought into teams losing on purpose. Unless the HC is guaranteed a job the following year.

[Guru]

I'm just sick of having to wait until the end of the season. Clark, if you are going to fire Pioli just do it NOW. JFC.

[Branden Albert's Huge Balls]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

So you think he puts in a bullshit work week that week, and rolls over?

Maybe it's just me, but I've never bought into teams losing on purpose. Unless the HC is guaranteed a job the following year.

We don't really need to lose "on purpose."

We just need to be a little conservative on offense and give Charles lots of breathers. Lots and lots of them.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by Guru

I'm just sick of having to wait until the end of the season. Clark, if you are going to fire Pioli just do it NOW. JFC.

This.

The waiting shit is killing me...

The thought of Pioli staying longer just makes me want to jump off the upper deck.

[Guru]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

This.

The waiting shit is killing me...

The thought of Pioli staying longer just makes me want to jump off the upper deck.

Surely he remembers the relief in the stadium the first home game after Carl was removed from the equation. It would be absolute elation now.

[Ugly Duck]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

We don't match up well with Oakland. For whatever reason, their defensive line destroy our offensive line every time

*Seymour, out.
*Tyvon Branch (our best player on D), out.
*Rolando McClain (still in the doghouse), not cleared to play.
*Safeties, RB Taiwan Jones & guys off the street playing cornerback.
*Coach Allen announced that he will use the last 3 games "to evaluate young talent."

The Chiefs offense will be playing against pre-season talent led by coaches with a pre-season mentality. KC will have to try really hard to lose this game.

[Guru]

Originally Posted by Ugly Duck

*Seymour, out.
*Tyvon Branch (our best player on D), out.
*Rolando McClain (still in the doghouse), not cleared to play.
*Safeties, RB Taiwan Jones & guys off the street playing cornerback.
*Coach Allen announced that he will use the last 3 games "to evaluate young talent."

The Chiefs offense will be playing against pre-season talent led by coaches with a pre-season mentality. KC will have to try really hard to lose this game.

It will literally be a pillowfight.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Yes, as long as we lose to Indy.

It would be nice to have the luxury of being able to cheer for my team to win a game at the end of the year.

[ChiefsandO'sfan]

Chiefs- 2-12 IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-12 NE, @TEN
Oakland- 4-10 @CAR , @SD
Eagles- 4-10 Wash , @ NYG
Lions- 4-10 ATL , Bears
Tenn- 4-9 NYJ ,@ GB , Jags

[Branden Albert's Huge Balls]

PERCENTAGE! NOW!!!