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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).
Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:47 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman View Post
I struggle with graph reading, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The odds suggest at this point that the Chiefs are most likely to draft number 6 overall?
I think it's 5. Find the nipple.

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Old 09-26-2012, 08:47 PM   #17
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Anyone else think the hulk in milkmans sig has a beer instead of a glass of milk? It's in his left hand next to ironmans head.
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:48 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buck View Post
Can you do San Diego if you have time? Thanks.
League-wide playoff predictions are available here:

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/


To run the software (to get additional information):

1) Click here:

http://nfl-forecast.com/

2) Click "Launch pro-football forecast"

3. Open the down load

4. Accept terms

5. Click: Forecast -> Forecast Remainder of the Season
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:49 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FAX View Post
I think it's 5. Find the nipple.

FAX
Yep.
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:52 PM   #20
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It should be possible to graph San Diego wins vs tantrums using the "weeping rivers" confounding factor.
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Old 09-26-2012, 09:02 PM   #21
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I think it's 5. Find the nipple.

FAX
He has a tough time making his woman happy too.
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Old 09-26-2012, 09:09 PM   #22
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Draft at five should be a spot to get a qb
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Old 09-27-2012, 12:18 AM   #23
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Anyone else think the hulk in milkmans sig has a beer instead of a glass of milk? It's in his left hand next to ironmans head.
Perhaps its a fruit drink.
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Old 09-27-2012, 12:44 AM   #24
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yep, right in line with what I predicted this team would do when the schedule came out. 6-10
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Old 09-27-2012, 12:50 AM   #25
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No offense to Mr. cdcox and his amazing predictive system which is, without question, a phenomenal piece of work and a testament to his undisputed, intellectual genius. But you can forget it, fellow Chiefs fans.

For I have sought the wisdom of the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah and have been informed that I need to check the air pressure in my front left tire. But then, the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah stated that there is no freaking way the Chiefs win 6 games this season. Rather, the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah has declared that we'll either win 9 or 4. The All-Seeing Crystal Tittah could not be more specific, I'm not sure why. Maybe I fogged the old girl up again.

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Old 09-27-2012, 12:55 AM   #26
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1 interesting thing to me is analyzing the advanced analysis for each week through the end of the year, current predictions on a game by game case has us going 11-5.
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Old 09-27-2012, 12:56 AM   #27
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1 interesting thing to me is analyzing the advanced analysis for each week through the end of the year, current predictions on a game by game case has us going 11-5.
Uhhhh ... what?

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Old 09-27-2012, 12:58 AM   #28
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Oh ... I get it. You're looking at each week ... got that part ... and it's telling you a straight win or loss for each game?

EDIT: I guess the question has to be ... what are the predictors used for each game. Strength of schedule? Past results?

I believe Mr. cdcox integrates the Vegas lines in his model. At least I think he does.

FAX
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Old 09-27-2012, 01:00 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by FAX View Post
Oh ... I get it. You're looking at each week ... got that part ... and it's telling you a straight win or loss for each game?

EDIT: I guess the question has to be ... what are the predictors used for each game. Strength of schedule? Past results?

I believe Mr. cdcox integrates the Vegas lines in his model. At least I think he does.

FAX
Percentage to win. We're over 50% for the next 10 of 13 games.
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Old 09-27-2012, 01:05 AM   #30
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Percentage to win. We're over 50% for the next 10 of 13 games.
Okay. Not to wear this out, but based on what? What are they basing the prediction on? Is this Mr. cdcox's system you're using?

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