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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 11-25-2012, 10:55 PM   #136
Douche Baggins Douche Baggins is offline
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Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.
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Old 11-25-2012, 11:17 PM   #137
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.
I had not updated the games from today. Done now.
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cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
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Old 11-25-2012, 11:24 PM   #138
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I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.
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Old 11-25-2012, 11:29 PM   #139
Douche Baggins Douche Baggins is offline
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Our draft schlong is HUUUGE

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Old 11-26-2012, 07:04 AM   #140
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I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.
yup...mccoy is out with vick...
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Old 12-02-2012, 01:05 PM   #141
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Why didn't this get bumped?
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:03 PM   #142
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As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 57%
Jacksonville 25%
Oakland 7%
Philadelphia 5%
Cleveland 4.5%
Carolina 0.5%
Field 1%
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cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.cdcox 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:05 PM   #143
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:06 PM   #144
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:07 PM   #145
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Go Browns.
Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:09 PM   #146
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A Browns/Raiders tie today would be very nice.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:10 PM   #147
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Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
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A tie would be perfect.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:21 PM   #148
JASONSAUTO JASONSAUTO is offline
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A tie would be perfect.
They can actually tie?
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:28 PM   #149
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They can actually tie?
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Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:29 PM   #150
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Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.
Sorry I forgot to put /mcnabb
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