Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 - Page 10

cdcox · 02:26 PM

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being *****ed by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Branden Albert's Huge Balls · 11-25-2012, 10:55 PM

Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.

cdcox · 11-25-2012, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.

I had not updated the games from today. Done now.

NJChiefsFan · 11-25-2012, 11:24 PM

I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.

Branden Albert's Huge Balls · 11-25-2012, 11:29 PM

Our draft schlong is HUUUGE

the Talking Can · 11-26-2012, 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NJChiefsFan

I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.

yup...mccoy is out with vick...

aturnis · 12-02-2012, 01:05 PM

Why didn't this get bumped?

cdcox · 12-02-2012, 02:03 PM

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 57%
Jacksonville 25%
Oakland 7%
Philadelphia 5%
Cleveland 4.5%
Carolina 0.5%
Field 1%

Branden Albert's Huge Balls · 12-02-2012, 02:05 PM

Go Browns.

Infidel Goat · 12-02-2012, 02:06 PM

Pulling hard for the Jags over Jets next week. That's probably their most winnable game left...

JASONSAUTO · 12-02-2012, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

Go Browns.

Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
Posted via Mobile Device

alnorth · 12-02-2012, 02:09 PM

A Browns/Raiders tie today would be very nice.

cdcox · 12-02-2012, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
Posted via Mobile Device

A tie would be perfect.

JASONSAUTO · 12-02-2012, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

A tie would be perfect.

They can actually tie?
Posted via Mobile Device

cdcox · 12-02-2012, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

They can actually tie?
Posted via Mobile Device

Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.

JASONSAUTO · 12-02-2012, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.

Sorry I forgot to put /mcnabb
Posted via Mobile Device

09-26-2012, 08:12 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362361	Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 nfl-forecast.com is back for another season. After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being ***ed by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16** KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
Posts: 28,114

11-25-2012, 10:55 PM	#136
Branden Albert's Huge Balls ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen Casino cash: $152523	Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed. __________________ Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 150,363

11-25-2012, 11:24 PM	#138
NJChiefsFan I've Made a Huge Mistake Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: NJ Casino cash: $986172	I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night. __________________ 6 of 12 QB's in the playoffs are 1st or 2nd year players. Oh how scary it is to go young at the QB position.
Posts: 4,903

11-25-2012, 11:29 PM	#139
Branden Albert's Huge Balls ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen Casino cash: $152523	Our draft schlong is HUUUGE __________________ Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 150,363

12-02-2012, 01:05 PM	#141
aturnis PALKO POWER! Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Iowa Casino cash: $72410	Why didn't this get bumped? __________________ Adopt a Chief, Ricky Stanzi. STANZI is the MANZI
Posts: 8,206

12-02-2012, 02:03 PM	#142
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362361	As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 57% Jacksonville 25% Oakland 7% Philadelphia 5% Cleveland 4.5% Carolina 0.5% Field 1%
Posts: 28,114

12-02-2012, 02:05 PM	#143
Branden Albert's Huge Balls ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen Casino cash: $152523	Go Browns. __________________ Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 150,363

12-02-2012, 02:06 PM	#144
Infidel Goat Beer Sherpa Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: shackled in a cellar Casino cash: $148390	Pulling hard for the Jags over Jets next week. That's probably their most winnable game left...
Posts: 1,256

12-02-2012, 02:09 PM	#146
alnorth MVP Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Iowania Casino cash: $12370464	A Browns/Raiders tie today would be very nice. __________________ <WarMoose> Think about how stupid the average person is. Now realize that half of them are dumber than that. <Chunda> Why half?
Posts: 21,976

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