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Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 11-25-2012, 11:55 PM   #136
Numbah One Numbah One is offline
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Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.
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Old 11-26-2012, 12:17 AM   #137
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.
I had not updated the games from today. Done now.
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Old 11-26-2012, 12:24 AM   #138
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I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.
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Old 11-26-2012, 12:29 AM   #139
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Old 11-26-2012, 08:04 AM   #140
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I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.
yup...mccoy is out with vick...
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:05 PM   #141
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Why didn't this get bumped?
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:03 PM   #142
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As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 57%
Jacksonville 25%
Oakland 7%
Philadelphia 5%
Cleveland 4.5%
Carolina 0.5%
Field 1%
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:05 PM   #143
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:06 PM   #144
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:07 PM   #145
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Go Browns.
Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:09 PM   #146
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A Browns/Raiders tie today would be very nice.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:10 PM   #147
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Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
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A tie would be perfect.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:21 PM   #148
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A tie would be perfect.
They can actually tie?
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:28 PM   #149
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They can actually tie?
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Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:29 PM   #150
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Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.
Sorry I forgot to put /mcnabb
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