Trending towards more robots in the future workforce.

[Direckshun]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...teal-your-job/

Is that robot going to steal your job?
Posted by Masa Serdarevic
on Sep 14 08:45.

We have written extensively about how the global economy is becoming increasingly technology-intensive, and reaping productivity gains.

Robots, we’ve argued, are slowly taking over in the workplace. And there are plenty of anecdotal examples, such as these noodle-slicing beings from China. But sales figures also confirm that more robots are being sold than ever before.

A new CLSA report entitled ‘Robot-buying boom’ crunches data provided by the International Federation of Robotics and comes up with some impressive statistics. Like this one (our emphasis):

Global sales of industrial robots in 2011 reached the highest ever recorded, at 166,028 units (+38% YoY) … According to the same organisation, 2012 will be another record-breaking year with 9% YoY growth.

We actually hadn’t heard of IFR before, but according to the CLSA’s Morten Paulsen and Edward Bourlet it is “broadly recognised as the leading authority on global robotics market data and market research”. It also compiles data from a number of national industry organisations.

What’s striking, of course, is that the 2011 figure is 38 per cent above the previous peak in 2005. This is, note Paulsen and Bourlet…

… a clear reminder that industrial robots are a cyclical growth industry, where the cyclical peaks tend to exceed previous peaks. The 2005 peak was 22% higher than the 2000 peak.

Here’s the chart, with a big upswing in 2011:



Geographically, north east Asia dominates, with a 46 per cent share of the market last year. Japan alone buys 17 per cent of all units sold, then South Korea with 15 per cent, then China with 14 per cent, the US and Germany with 12 per cent each.

The US, China and Japan are expected to be the three strongest markets this year in terms of growth.

By industry, it is the automotive industry that buys the largest share of robots, and it’s growing at quite a clip:



The electronics industries grew at 20 per cent year-on-year, and made up almost a quarter of global demand. From Paulsen and Bourlet:

The electronics industry was the fastest-growing market for robotics in 2010, so the deceleration of growth is mainly due to a high base effect.

IFR forecasts that the demand will be sustained in spite of a weak global economy. North America and China are expected to have the highest growth rate at 15 per cent YoY, followed by Japan with 11 per cent. It should conterbalance a forecast drop in demand from Europe.

For CY2013, IFR is expecting 2% negative growth. According to IFR, this is because of potential cyclical weakness in investments in the automotive industry in developed markets. IFR is not expecting negative growth for robotics demand in China and other emerging markets.

Paulsen and Bourlet agree with these IFR forecasts, but not entirely:

IFR’s forecast for robot demand growth in CY2012 (+9% YoY) is fairly close to our forecast calling for 11% YoY unit growth. We share the organisation’s view that growth will be led by North America and emerging markets. However, we have a more positive view on robotics demand for CY2013, where we predict 9% YoY growth for global robot demand. Our view is not based on a more positive view on the cycle. Indeed, we expect overall machinery demand to hit a cyclical low in CY2013. However, we believe the electronics industry – led by Apple – could drive a new wave of investments in robotics in the electronics assembly industry.

Though with demographic trends as they are, and robot technology becoming increasingly sophisticated, human labour is eventually not going to be an economical choice for many manufacturers and corporates. Why employ someone to slice noodles, when a robot will do the same thing without complaining or demanding a pay rise? Why have a human drive a taxi or a train, if a robot-operated one is potentially even safer and more efficient? Why employ a barrista if this machine will do the same job? It’s a revolution that’s already changing the global workplace.

[HonestChieffan]

Dear Lord, not again

[qabbaan]

It's your responsibility to make and keep yourself marketable in the workplace.

Back to the turn of the industrial revolution so we can ape full employment one day, eh?

[headsnap]

the DNC is already employing robots to post on internet message boards....

[Fish]

[KILLER_CLOWN]

Mendel's machines replicate in the night
In the black iron prison of St. Augustine's light
He's paying the bills and they're doing him proud
They can float their burnt offerings on assembler clouds

The new Franklins fly their kites
With omega point in the sight
And the post modern empire is ended tonight

From history
The flood of counterfeits released
The black cloud
Reductionism and the beast
Automatons gather all the pieces
So the world may be increased
In simulation jubilation

For the deceased...
Spray-on clothes and diamond jaws
Wrinkles smoothed by nanoclaws

With my machines I can dispatch you
From this world without a trace
Our nostalgia ghosts are ready to take your place

Content-shifting shopping malls
Gasoline trees and walk-through walls

None of them knew...

As I watch the dead rise up out of the earth
I feel the gray goo boiling my blood

Try to hide from the lies as they all come true
Deus absconditus
Deus nullus deus nisi deus

I feel the grey goo boiling my blood
As the fenris wolf slowly bites through his chain
Try to hide the myth as it becomes a man

None of them knew they were robots

Buying an X or an O
Cats game for Joe Blow
In state craft tic tac toe

A binary hug or kiss
Post industrial bliss
Can be wrung from utility mist

They stole the great arcanum
The secret fire
Moloch found his gold
For the new empire
Once again
The necrophage becomes saint

Lindy hop around the truth
Jump back wolf pack attack
Swingin' up there in the noose
Jump back wolf pack attack
Slap back white shark attack
Slap back white shark attack
Phased array diffraction nets

From full-wall paint-on TV sets
Migratory home sublets
And time shared diamond fiber sets

Recombinant logos keys

Bitic Qabalistic trees
I feel the grey goo boiling my blood
As leviathan and his bugs freeze the sea

Try to save the world by immolating myself
The flood of counterfeits released
From history
The black cloud
Automotons gather all the pieces
The resurrection of the deceased
In simulation jubilation
For the builders
So the world may be increased
Of the body of the beast

[Dallas Chief]

10 of 25 threads on DC front page started by this limp wrist. An ever devoted water carrier for the DNC. How much does it weigh misdireckshunt? You must be getting tired by now.

[mikey23545]

International Federation of Robots?

WTF, robots already have a Communist Party?

[Direckshun]

Financial Times:

In January the US economy added just 4,000 manufacturing jobs, and the net increase since July is zero. Yet last month, manufacturing activity rose by its fastest rate since April… The difference boils down to robots, which pose an increasingly nagging paradox: the more there are, the better for overall growth (since they boost productivity); yet the worse things become for the middle class.

At some point, policy makers will be forced to grapple with what is intuitively obvious – that sustained growth is inconsistent with declining middle class incomes.

[King_Chief_Fan]

more robots, makes sense.

They don't get sick, they don't take funeral leave, the don't skip work the day after the superbowl and they don't need Obamacare.

[blaise]

Just imagine if all these forces didn't keep working against Obama! Everyone would have a $125,000 a year job!

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by King_Chief_Fan

more robots, makes sense.

They don't get sick, they don't take funeral leave, the don't skip work the day after the superbowl and they don't need Obamacare.

Not yet. But "I hear" there's talk of extending mandatory coverage to robots. Read it on a website.

[La literatura]

Imagine if a robot that cost $15K was essentially a long-term caregiver for an elderly person? How much money would that save per year? And grandma could still live in her house.

Is Microsoft building one of these? Because it's gold, Jerry.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by King_Chief_Fan

more robots, makes sense.

They don't get sick, they don't take funeral leave, the don't skip work the day after the superbowl and they don't need Obamacare.

They don't go on strike...

[frazod]

Originally Posted by Dallas Chief

10 of 25 threads on DC front page started by this limp wrist. An ever devoted water carrier for the DNC. How much does it weigh misdireckshunt? You must be getting tired by now.

Easy to do if you don't have a life or a job.