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Old 08-23-2012, 09:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-23-2012, 03:26 PM   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
Here is the thing.

As an American and a person who started a business right before the 2007 crash, I wanted Obama to be spectacular and turn things around. I really did, because it benefits all of us.

Ironically, he's had 4 years of fail, pure and utter fail, like a 12 year old handicap with no wheelchair battery in the hunger games kind of failure.

If he has all of these great, surefire plans to correct the economy, he's doing a huge disservice to this country by not doing those things NOW and using THAT as his re-election campaign instead of more empty words.
Obama didn't fail.

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Old 08-23-2012, 03:29 PM   #77
Iowanian Iowanian is offline
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I'll try to spell this slowly.

Prices started moving up dramatically based on WHAT US event?
"What is the election of Obama in November 2008 Alex"

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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
You don't say.



The chart shows that particular price climb in motion long before Obama came into office.
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Old 08-23-2012, 03:29 PM   #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bewbies View Post
Obama didn't fail.
What about Obama saying if he just passed healthcare and wound up a one term president he'd consider himself a success?
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Old 08-23-2012, 03:30 PM   #79
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It's almost like Obama took my pre-election 2008 concerns about him as a candidate and has spent nearly 4 years trolling me with it.
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Old 08-23-2012, 03:31 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
What about Obama saying if he just passed healthcare and wound up a one term president he'd consider himself a success?
Yep. People that say Obama has failed, is a dunce, moron etc are dead wrong. He's done exactly what he wanted, and has the exact results he wanted as well.

All of this shit is on purpose.
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Old 08-23-2012, 03:51 PM   #81
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If the economy improves and our dollar increases in value, then employment will rise with it.


Also if we cut unemployment benefits that would increase employment as well, forces people to look for jobs.
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Old 08-23-2012, 04:18 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by CoMoChief View Post


Also if we cut unemployment benefits that would increase employment as well, forces people to look for jobs.
You heartless (and correct) bastard!!
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Old 08-23-2012, 04:50 PM   #83
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Got an email back from the author of the OP regarding the questions at the start of the thread.

The names have been changed to protect the innocent. Well, just mine:

Quote:
Thanks for the great piece.

Does the 2014 recovery projection set by the study you cited account for either of the following factors:

1. Rapid technological progress.
2. The election of either Obama or Romney in November.

Thanks again for the great read.

Kind regards,

Direckshun
Quote:
Direckshun --

Glad you liked it. In answer to your questions, the article didn't mention either of the two factors you mention below.

In the case of technological progress, I think there's often a sense that even "rapid" progress takes more than a couple of years to make itself really manifest in the workplace--it's more a medium-term than a short-term phenomenon.

It's possible that the election outcome could reduce uncertainty over future policy--which is one of the factors mentioned--but I suspect that for a time it could also increase that uncertainty. For example, the process of writing the several hundred regulations required by Dodd-Frank might be substantially altered if Romney is elected. Or if Obama is re-elected but faced a Republican House and Senate, uncertainty might rise as well.

Thanks for taking a look at the blog.

Tim
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Old 08-23-2012, 04:54 PM   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Who are you quoting with the """save us""" stuff? You're not quoting me.

Sure the stimulus has some questionable results, it didn't boost the economy like it could have. It also could have been much, much bigger and we wouldn't be flirting with double-dip recessions the past 15 months.

But that's all immaterial. The claim was made by Iowanian that Obama was a total failure.

Of course, he didn't define what he meant, as was convenient for him, so we can just assume he meant that he accomplished nothing remotely positive ecnomically during the past four years.

I think you can I can both agree that's hyperbole, and stupid.
I wasn't addressing Iowanian, I was addressing your statement:

The stimulus package prevented the Great Recession from becoming the Second Great Depression.

So he saved us from another Great Depression? I guess you can argue "Well it didn't happen" just like my house wasn't forclosed upon using my credit cards (fictional example) but my economic outlook is now worse than before, and so is this country's IMO. What was it the CBO came out with; every job the stimulus created cost taxpayers $265,000? How's that economically positive?
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Old 08-23-2012, 04:55 PM   #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
If you are going to quote me, please do it accurately.

He could have just been stating factual numbers without any implication.

He also could have been implying that Obama was responsible for the rise. But I didn't make a determination either way. You did.
I did make that determination. Wasn't exactly a leap of faith:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
No...Your chart shows that Gas prices took a HUGE dive in the 2nd half of 2008 and have been tied to a rocket ship since Obama got his turn at the wheel.

Thanks for demonstrating my point with a coloring book so cosmo can play along too.
The prosecution rests, your honor.

Why you even thought this was a point worth combing through is beyond me, Donger. Methinks you're probably just looking for something to do.
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Old 08-23-2012, 04:57 PM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bewbies View Post
He's done exactly what he wanted, and has the exact results he wanted as well.
There have been a lot of hilariously dumb things said in this thread, but this is near the top.
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Old 08-23-2012, 04:59 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I did make that determination. Wasn't exactly a leap of faith:



The prosecution rests, your honor.

Why you even thought this was a point worth combing through is beyond me, Donger. Methinks you're probably just looking for something to do.
No, it was leap of faith. You just happened to make a good guess.
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Old 08-23-2012, 05:00 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
There have been a lot of hilariously dumb things said in this thread, but this is near the top.
You do know that Obama (and his DOE lead) have expressed being just fine and dandy with us having high gasoline prices, yes?
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Old 08-23-2012, 05:42 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by CoMoChief View Post
If the economy improves and our dollar increases in value, then employment will rise with it.


Also if we cut unemployment benefits that would increase employment as well, forces people to look for jobs.
Uhhhhhh.....

A strong dollar pretty much decreases the price of exports, makes foreign labor cheaper, and causes a big trade deficit.

How does any of that increase employment?

A strong dollar usually follows from a strong economy when our products are highly desired in world markets. But, strong dollars also have historically occurred in an unstable world when investors and financial institutions start looking for security.

In both cases, the strong dollar follows from either a good economy or economic havoc in other major markets. But, the strong dollar doesn't cause these things, its a RESULT.

A strong dollar sets off a chain reaction that usually acts to weaken employment in the US not strengthen it.
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Old 08-23-2012, 05:44 PM   #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
I wasn't addressing Iowanian, I was addressing your statement:

The stimulus package prevented the Great Recession from becoming the Second Great Depression.

So he saved us from another Great Depression?
No, the stimulus package did.

Obama was just one moving part of the stimulus package, but he was a critical part.

The stimulus package and Obama are not one in the same. In all likelihood, he wanted one much, much larger than the one he got.

It's an important distinction to make.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
I guess you can argue "Well it didn't happen" just like my house wasn't forclosed upon using my credit cards (fictional example) but my economic outlook is now worse than before, and so is this country's IMO.
This country's economic outlook is worse than before what? Before Obama took office?

Obama took office when the economy was in a nosedive. Are you suggesting we're worse off now?

What metric are you using? What measurements are you relying on? Do you have any legitimate economists or experts what come within the same hemisphere as you on this?
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