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Old 08-23-2012, 10:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:02 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
We're not relying on China to buy our bonds? And with the looming debt growing larger and unemployment at 8+ percent with a trillion dollars spent to reduce it, how has the economy recovered...I really don't see how that's at all possible.
Then you are blind.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:04 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
That figure is a little deceptive though, there will always be "appreciation" after you bottom out. That said, it's nice to know that we have actually bottomed out. Recovery is coming, there is no question about that. The question is if Obama has slowed that and will continue to do so if re-elected. I feel he has done more to GET IN THE WAY of recovery then he has "helped."
How? Specifics please. I'm tired of the vague platitudes that dumbasses in DC think make them look like they know what they're talking about when it comes to economic issues.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:05 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Maybe, maybe not. But to deny the fact that things are MUCH better since 2009 is partisan at best and ignorant at worst.
I wouldn't say MUCH better ... it is better, not insignificantly so but far from MUCH. You have to remember, it's hard for you to judge because of the volatility of the area you live in. In most of the US there has been very little in the way of tangible recovery. I can point to a litany of Obama edicts that (in my opinion) have seriously slowed recovery. Some of them completely worthless, others that probably will have long term benefits but not the best time to implement. The good thing is that (as you pointed out) we have bottomed out and all indicators are pointing up. The recovery already would be in full gear if businessmen and investors were willing to release money that they are holding back because of fear of what shit Obama will pull next (see Obamacare). There is no getting around it... Obama is simply BAD for business. Period. The question becomes whether you think that is outweighed by whatever other reasons you may like the guy.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:06 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
How does any of this change the fact we're borrowing about 4 billion dollars a day? How is that not horrific?
Probably because our GDP is something like $13-15 TRILLION a year.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:07 AM   #140
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From CNNMoney.com in June 2012

Given weak economic data lately, the announcement didn't come as a complete surprise. A CNNMoney survey of economists had predicted the Fed would act to extend the program.

Inflation is near the Fed's target, but the unemployment rate, at 8.2% is far above acceptable levels. Meanwhile, the most recent jobs report showed American employers added 69,000 jobs in May, the weakest hiring in a year.

Stocks fell sharply at first, but then recovered some of their losses later in the day.

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at historic lows since December 2008, as a way to free up credit following the financial crisis.

To push rates even lower, the central bank has also purchased more than $2 trillion in assets in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing, or QE.

Related: Mortgage rates sink to record low
The effect on Main Street has been questionable though. Mortgage rates are at record lows, but even so, new home sales have been choppy and banks are still unwilling to lend to anyone with less-than-perfect credit. Small business owners are also struggling to get loans.

Fed policymakers voted Wednesday to keep interest rates "exceptionally low" for at least another two years, indicating they believe the economy will remain weak enough to warrant an extra boost "at least through late 2014."

Of the Fed's 12 voting members, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker was the only one to oppose the decision.

Bernanke 'prepared' to do more
Later in the day, the Fed also released updated forecasts, showing the central bank has lower expectations for the economy this year.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:09 AM   #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
We're not relying on China to buy our bonds? And with the looming debt growing larger and unemployment at 8+ percent with a trillion dollars spent to reduce it, how has the economy recovered...I really don't see how that's at all possible.
You don't see how it's possible because you're a blind partisan dumbass.

China has a coming cash crunch because the wealthy are leaving China now,

China has painted themselves into a corner. They need us much more than we need them. If we don't buy their cheap shit (which is becoming increasingly more expensive as pay rises there), then the Chinese are ****ed.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:09 AM   #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
How? Specifics please. I'm tired of the vague platitudes that dumbasses in DC think make them look like they know what they're talking about when it comes to economic issues.
Well this is a softball. OBAMACARE. Do you want more? I can quote ton of others. Yes I know Obamacare hasn't taken effect yet, but ask around. Many businesses are deathly afraid of it and holding back out of fear. If you don;t believe this then I don't know what to tell you because you are delusional. You can however make an argument that Obamacare is WORTH the slower recovery. I disagree but that is the leg you have to stand on.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:09 AM   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I wouldn't say MUCH better ... it is better, not insignificantly so but far from MUCH. You have to remember, it's hard for you to judge because of the volatility of the area you live in. In most of the US there has been very little in the way of tangible recovery. I can point to a litany of Obama edicts that (in my opinion) have seriously slowed recovery. Some of them completely worthless, others that probably will have long term benefits but not the best time to implement. The good thing is that (as you pointed out) we have bottomed out and all indicators are pointing up. The recovery already would be in full gear if businessmen and investors were willing to release money that they are holding back because of fear of what shit Obama will pull next (see Obamacare). There is no getting around it... Obama is simply BAD for business. Period. The question becomes whether you think that is outweighed by whatever other reasons you may like the guy.
I don't necessarily "like the guy". But I don't trust that Romney/Ryan can make any significant changes that would return unemployment to 4% and/or drastically reduce the deficit or spending.

And considering that I absolutely despise Social Conservatism, I don't have much of a choice this election year.

That said, the economy is FAR different than that of 2009 and in a vey positive manner.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:09 AM   #144
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I'm surprised people are so confident in real estate right now. Mortgage rates are at record lows, nothing is moving, and banks are just coming off a nearly year long foreclosure hiatus.

There's another wave of foreclosures coming, and if that comes when rates start climbing oh shit....
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:10 AM   #145
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Then you are blind.
Well that was enlightening...
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:10 AM   #146
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
It's hard to call Obama a total failure in any credible way. If you disagree with his policies, that's fine. But you're going full retard.
The private sector has added as many jobs under the Obama administration as Reagan did in his first term. The United States, under Obama, has recovered from its recession better than any of its European allies. The stimulus package prevented the Great Recession from becoming the Second Great Depression.

Again, you can disagree with his policies, and even argued that he's performed really poorly (though I'd disagree), but if you're going to argue we've had four years of total failure... well, that's on you.
The one pathological disorder that all moonbats share is projection.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:11 AM   #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I wouldn't say MUCH better ... it is better, not insignificantly so but far from MUCH. You have to remember, it's hard for you to judge because of the volatility of the area you live in. In most of the US there has been very little in the way of tangible recovery. I can point to a litany of Obama edicts that (in my opinion) have seriously slowed recovery. Some of them completely worthless, others that probably will have long term benefits but not the best time to implement. The good thing is that (as you pointed out) we have bottomed out and all indicators are pointing up. The recovery already would be in full gear if businessmen and investors were willing to release money that they are holding back because of fear of what shit Obama will pull next (see Obamacare). There is no getting around it... Obama is simply BAD for business. Period. The question becomes whether you think that is outweighed by whatever other reasons you may like the guy.
You are a blowhard.

Obama has done nothing but enable Wall St at every chance he can get these days. Obama has been very friendly to business despite what the blowhards at CNBC and Faux say.
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Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:12 AM   #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Well this is a softball. OBAMACARE. Do you want more? I can quote ton of others. Yes I know Obamacare hasn't taken effect yet, but ask around. Many businesses are deathly afraid of it and holding back out of fear. If you don;t believe this then I don't know what to tell you because you are delusional. You can however make an argument that Obamacare is WORTH the slower recovery. I disagree but that is the leg you have to stand on.
Absolute horse shit. It's nice to see that you are going to the BEP school of anecdotes.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:12 AM   #149
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You don't see how it's possible because you're a blind partisan dumbass.
See previous post ie projection.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:12 AM   #150
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Good night guys; I'll sleep better knowing we're in much better shape than my lying eyes tell me.

Feel free to read my post from CNNMoney.com about how the economy is expected to stay weak through 2014 and I'll read your analysis in the morning.
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