538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Brainiac

I'm a moderate.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by patteeu

It's my opinion alright, but it's an opinion heavily based on what both candidates have said and done.

Thank goodness for obstruction of government progress. Government progress gave us >8% unemployment, <2% growth, and a deficit expanding government takeover of healthcare without any progress on keeping healthcare costs under control. We don't need any more of that progress.

Can't have it both ways. Can't blame it on Obama policies and then admit those policies were never allowed to go through.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If Romeny were able to take Florida, Ohio, and VA, he could still pull it out out without any of those 3. A huge long shot, but not impossible.

New Ohio poll out today has Obama up +5 points, 50-45

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1860.html

[go bowe]

if the big o wins ohio it's all over...

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

New Ohio poll out today has Obama up +5 points, 50-45

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1860.html

Originally Posted by go bowe

if the big o wins ohio it's all over...

The Obama lead is increasing says 538. Its goes beyond a convention bump as the numbers factor that already in. Obama is seen as having an 80.7% chance of winning. All those lean Obama states that were mentioned earlier have all moved to the likely category except Florida. Florida is seen as a 67% probability of being an Obama state. North Carolina is seen as a tossup, leaning slightly Romney but trending to Obama. Ohio is nearly a 75% shot that Obama takes it. Additionally Nebraska's second district has fallen out of the Romney safe category. Overall the race has moved a six percent probability towards an Obama victory as the popular vote has moved half a point in his direction within the last week. Again 538's methodology negates any temporary convention bounce.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by patteeu

To me, this seems like a ludicrous thing to say about a party that nominated Mitt Romney. The democrat candidate is far more "fringe" than Mitt Romney even if Republicans and popular sentiment have prevented him from going full Obama.

The Democratic candidate is center-left, if not a straight centrist.

The Republican candidate supports the Ryan budget.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by patteeu

BEP and Sportsshrink are just nuts when they call me RINO or socialist.

FYP

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Can't have it both ways. Can't blame it on Obama policies and then admit those policies were never allowed to go through.

Obama had no trouble getting his policies through for the better part of his first two years in office. Since the election of 2010, the GOP has used it's mandate to block as much of the damage as possible. As it turns out, over time, you can have it both ways.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

The Democratic candidate is center-left, if not a straight centrist.

The Republican candidate supports the Ryan budget.

Wrong on both counts.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Wrong on both counts.

Does it worry you that Nate Silver is giving Romney a 17% chance of winning the elections and Obama an 83% chance of winning?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ click on now cast

Obama has a:
75% chance of taking Ohio, Virgina, Iowa?

85% chance of taking wisconsin and Nevada?

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Does it worry you that Nate Silver is giving Romney a 17% chance of winning the elections and Obama an 83% chance of winning?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ click on now cast

Obama has a:
75% chance of taking Ohio, Virgina, Iowa?

85% chance of taking wisconsin and Nevada?

The momentum is firmly on Obama's side, especially after the RNC got zero bounce from their convention and the DNC turned around and got around a 4 point bounce after theirs. This is very similar to 2008. McCain was tied or leading slightly before the conventions but then didn't capitalize and Obama did and never looked back.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Does it worry you that Nate Silver is giving Romney a 17% chance of winning the elections and Obama an 83% chance of winning?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ click on now cast

Obama has a:
75% chance of taking Ohio, Virgina, Iowa?

85% chance of taking wisconsin and Nevada?

I'd rather see it the other way around, but I don't think "worry" is the right word. I don't have as much blind faith in that number as Nate Silver fanboys do.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Obama had no trouble getting his policies through for the better part of his first two years in office. Since the election of 2010, the GOP has used it's mandate to block as much of the damage as possible. As it turns out, over time, you can have it both ways.

Re-write history much? 85% of legislation was filibustered in the first two years.

[vailpass]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Re-write history much? 85% of legislation was filibustered in the first two years.

I look for that number to go up if obama is re-elected. Reparations legislation not withstanding, of course.

[Cave Johnson]

Originally Posted by patteeu

I'd rather see it the other way around, but I don't think "worry" is the right word. I don't have as much blind faith in that number as Nate Silver fanboys do.

Absolutely. Lotta time between now and November 6th for voter suppression.