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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 09-08-2012, 10:15 PM   #91
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I also don't think many Americans trust the Republican party. There are a lot of Republicans who feel abandoned because it's moved so far right, and is so beholden to the fringe. I can't think of a time since Reconstruction when one party was so controlled by its extremes. It will be interesting to see if it "course-corrects" and becomes more centrist, or whether it splits into two separate parties.
To me, this seems like a ludicrous thing to say about a party that nominated Mitt Romney. The democrat candidate is far more "fringe" than Mitt Romney even if Republicans and popular sentiment have prevented him from going full Obama.
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Old 09-09-2012, 07:53 AM   #92
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To me, this seems like a ludicrous thing to say about a party that nominated Mitt Romney. The democrat candidate is far more "fringe" than Mitt Romney even if Republicans and popular sentiment have prevented him from going full Obama.
That's your opinion fed by right wing propaganda, not based on anything Obama has done or said. I think most of the nation is now seeing the Republican party as having obstructed government progress. They also are seeing things they don't trust about Mitt like failure to disclose his taxes, corporations are people, the etch a sketch comment by his team, and the comment that they don't care about fact checkers. The only ones that trust Romney is his Republican base.
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Old 09-09-2012, 08:46 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
To me, this seems like a ludicrous thing to say about a party that nominated Mitt Romney. The democrat candidate is far more "fringe" than Mitt Romney even if Republicans and popular sentiment have prevented him from going full Obama.
Yep, they sure did, and he's losing because he's being pulled to the right, as evidenced by his far-right VP pick. The same thing happened four years ago, and they lost because they pressured McCain into alienating his moderate supporters, myself included.

Additionally, over the last few years, we've seen the far right propose personhood amendments, anti-abortion legislation, and anti-Union movements in many states; perpetuate the birther nonsense; mumble about starting a brand new war (!) with Iran; deny climate change; brand those who disagree with them as anti-patriotic and even downright Socialist; choose obstructionism over cooperation, and religious intolerance over science; decry education; and even repeatedly claim that teachers are paid too much.

Think about that. Teachers. Paid too much.

Obama, on the other hand, perpetuated the war in Afghanistan, modeled his health-care reform and cap-and-trade plans after Republican templates, extended the Bush-era tax cuts, and completely ignored gun control, even after Gabby Giffords was shot through the head. He has a lot more room on his left before he can be labelled fringe.
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Old 09-09-2012, 09:35 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That's your opinion fed by right wing propaganda, not based on anything Obama has done or said.
patteau is a good man but he is in a huge Republican bubble.
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Old 09-09-2012, 02:24 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That's your opinion fed by right wing propaganda, not based on anything Obama has done or said. I think most of the nation is now seeing the Republican party as having obstructed government progress. They also are seeing things they don't trust about Mitt like failure to disclose his taxes, corporations are people, the etch a sketch comment by his team, and the comment that they don't care about fact checkers. The only ones that trust Romney is his Republican base.
It's my opinion alright, but it's an opinion heavily based on what both candidates have said and done.

Thank goodness for obstruction of government progress. Government progress gave us >8% unemployment, <2% growth, and a deficit expanding government takeover of healthcare without any progress on keeping healthcare costs under control. We don't need any more of that progress.
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Old 09-09-2012, 02:29 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
Yep, they sure did, and he's losing because he's being pulled to the right, as evidenced by his far-right VP pick. The same thing happened four years ago, and they lost because they pressured McCain into alienating his moderate supporters, myself included.

Additionally, over the last few years, we've seen the far right propose personhood amendments, anti-abortion legislation, and anti-Union movements in many states; perpetuate the birther nonsense; mumble about starting a brand new war (!) with Iran; deny climate change; brand those who disagree with them as anti-patriotic and even downright Socialist; choose obstructionism over cooperation, and religious intolerance over science; decry education; and even repeatedly claim that teachers are paid too much.

Think about that. Teachers. Paid too much.

Obama, on the other hand, perpetuated the war in Afghanistan, modeled his health-care reform and cap-and-trade plans after Republican templates, extended the Bush-era tax cuts, and completely ignored gun control, even after Gabby Giffords was shot through the head. He has a lot more room on his left before he can be labelled fringe.
You're not a moderate. Neither are all of the other self-described middle-of-the-roaders out there who can't help themselves but to vote for the most liberal President in the past 40 years.
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Old 09-09-2012, 02:37 PM   #97
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I just don't seem moderate to you, because you're on the right. If you're standing in the end zone, someone on the 50 looks pretty far away. There's nothing wrong with that, it's just an observation of perception; I have some reeeeeealllly left-leaning friends who think I'm the physical manifestation of the John Birch Society.

And even if Obama is more liberal than Clinton and Carter, a statement of which I am not convinced for the reasons I gave above, that's only a sample of three. Not exactly a damnation.
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Old 09-09-2012, 02:49 PM   #98
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I just don't seem moderate to you, because you're on the right. If you're standing in the end zone, someone on the 50 looks pretty far away. There's nothing wrong with that, it's just an observation of perception; I have some reeeeeealllly left-leaning friends who think I'm the physical manifestation of the John Birch Society.
And you don't think I can point to right wingers who think I'm a leftist? It happens here all the time with people like BEP, Sportsshrink, and billay calling me socialist or RINO or whatever. Does that somehow make me a moderate? I don't think so. I'm a conservative who is skeptical of big government and, based on what I've seen from your posts, you're a liberal who embraces it. It doesn't matter that we both have a streak of pragmatism or that we both have some issues on which we'd disagree with others in our camp.
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Old 09-09-2012, 02:53 PM   #99
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Hoover I know your a smart man. You are involved in politics and follow it closely.

You have seen the trending numbers. Texas could go blue as early as 2016 because of the numbers of Latinos and the 65/35 split favoring the Dems. If that happens the Dem's would start with Cali/NY/Tx and its 122 EC in their pocket. The R's cant make that up.

How can the republicans make up for the downward trending demograpics? Surely you dont think going farther to the right is the solution?
The Republican base has to change the way it talks about immigration. I for one don't see Hispanics as being locks to vote Democrat, so long as they continue to put issues like abortion on demand and gay marriage above every other issues.
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Old 09-09-2012, 02:59 PM   #100
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And you don't think I can point to right wingers who think I'm a leftist? It happens here all the time with people like BEP, Sportsshrink, and billay calling me socialist or RINO or whatever. Does that somehow make me a moderate? I don't think so. I'm a conservative who is skeptical of big government and, based on what I've seen from your posts, you're a liberal who embraces it. It doesn't matter that we both have a streak of pragmatism or that we both have some issues on which we'd disagree with others in our camp.
You're right. I take back the 'end zone'. Make it the 25.

Edit: Also, I should add that I haven't been here long, so there have been a lot of topics I just haven't been around for yet. I've noticed that before, that I probably come across more lefty than I really am, because I haven't said anything about a lot of stuff - probably the most notable is abortion, which I don't even bring up around my liberal friends.

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Old 09-09-2012, 03:16 PM   #101
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The Republican base has to change the way it talks about immigration. I for one don't see Hispanics as being locks to vote Democrat, so long as they continue to put issues like abortion on demand and gay marriage above every other issues.
The Republicans had the latino vote locked up in the early 80s and then they started playing the Latinos are the boogeyman immigrants.

I agree that the Dems dont have the Latinos locked up long term, but its not looking good for the Republicans.
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Old 09-09-2012, 04:12 PM   #102
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You're right. I take back the 'end zone'. Make it the 25.

Edit: Also, I should add that I haven't been here long, so there have been a lot of topics I just haven't been around for yet. I've noticed that before, that I probably come across more lefty than I really am, because I haven't said anything about a lot of stuff - probably the most notable is abortion, which I don't even bring up around my liberal friends.
And likewise, I don't see you as a far out lefty socialist either. I'm sure some of my positions would surprise you too, even though I do consider myself to be very conservative. BEP and Sportsshrink are just nuts when they call me RINO or socialist.
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Old 09-09-2012, 04:17 PM   #103
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The Republicans had the latino vote locked up in the early 80s and then they started playing the Latinos are the boogeyman immigrants.

I agree that the Dems dont have the Latinos locked up long term, but its not looking good for the Republicans.
Not really hard for dems to do when your immigration policy is to come on in, we'll ignore our laws that are in place, then tell you the rich will pay for everything.

Oh, and we'll even arm your brothers so they can kill our border guards.
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Old 09-09-2012, 04:40 PM   #104
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Not really hard for dems to do when your immigration policy is to come on in, we'll ignore our laws that are in place, then tell you the rich will pay for everything.

Oh, and we'll even arm your brothers so they can kill our border guards.
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Old 09-09-2012, 04:56 PM   #105
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You're not a moderate. Neither are all of the other self-described middle-of-the-roaders out there who can't help themselves but to vote for the most liberal President in the past 40 years.
I'm a moderate, and there's no way in hell I'd vote for Obama, so I guess I agree with that assessment.
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