538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[jiveturkey]

How will his predictions hold up with all of the new voter ID laws though???

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jiveturkey

How will his predictions hold up with all of the new voter ID laws though???

Isn't all the federal courts throwing out most of those laws?

[jiveturkey]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Isn't all the federal courts throwing out most of those laws?

I saw that in Texas but haven't paid much attention.

[ChiTown]

I have no doubt Obama will win, and most likely win big. The Republican Party continues to be it's own worst enemy. This should have been a Landslide victory for a Qualified Challenger. Instead, we will be handing Barry 4 more years to permanently bury our economy in quagmire of shit. Hooray for all of us!

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by cdcox

August 25, 2010 he predicted that the Democrats would lose 6 to 7 seats.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/76/

In his final prediction, he predicted that the Democrats would lose 7 seats.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/66/

They ended up losing 6 seats.


In the gubernatorial races he predicted on September 3rd that the Republicans would control 30 seats.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/76/

That prediction held leading up to the elections:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/66/

In the end he ended up correctly calling 36 of the 37 races.

In the House race on September 10 he predicted the house had a 2/3 chance of going the Republican's direction.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/75/

In his final House prediction he under estimated the number of seats the Republicans would take but it was still within the margin of error:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

All things considered, we are certainly in the time range where his predictions have been meaningful and accurate in the past. It should be known that his models also consider the likelihood of election changing events, such as changes in unemployment between now and the election, in his predictions.

Thank you. That looks pretty impressive (and as I said before, I was aware that Silver has a good reputation). That margin of error business on the House predictions is a pretty big margin though and he doesn't have a very long track record. We'll have to wait and see, but my guess is that his predictions don't look quite as strong this time around.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by ChiTown

I have no doubt Obama will win, and most likely win big. The Republican Party continues to be it's own worst enemy. This should have been a Landslide victory for a Qualified Challenger. Instead, we will be handing Barry 4 more years to permanently bury our economy in quagmire of shit. Hooray for all of us!

If that happens, I'd place a hell of a lot more blame on the voters who couldn't get behind a more than qualified alternative than on the candidate. A turnaround specialist who has had success in everything he's ever led, public, private, and non-profit. You couldn't design a more qualified candidate for our current times if you were starting from scratch.

An Obama victory will be a victory of style over substance and a victory of those who want to spread the dwindling spoils of the past around over those who want to build a prosperous future.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

An Obama victory will be a victory of style over substance and a victory of those who want to spread the dwindling spoils of the past around over those who want to build a prosperous future.

Kerry should have been able to beat Bush. The Dems put up a bad candidate against him. Romney is a bad candidate. He shouldn't have been the candidate.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by patteeu

You don't know that.

Butthurt at its finest

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Butthurt at its finest

Irony

[Ace Gunner]

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea

Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.

Less interesting since both represent a continued trampling of free enterprise, democracy, peace, traditions of america and freedom.

[KC native]

Originally Posted by patteeu

If that happens, I'd place a hell of a lot more blame on the voters who couldn't get behind a more than qualified alternative than on the candidate. A turnaround specialist who has had success in everything he's ever led, public, private, and non-profit. You couldn't design a more qualified candidate for our current times if you were starting from scratch.

An Obama victory will be a victory of style over substance and a victory of those who want to spread the dwindling spoils of the past around over those who want to build a prosperous future.

turnaround specialist. You even have to twist what he was.

[whoman69]

The new data considers the convention bounce of Mitt Romney. The goal for him to hit was a 4 point bounce. Anything over that and he would be making up ground. For those unaware of the convention bounce, candidates will have a rise in popularity after their conventions which is called a bounce because shortly thereafter that popularity returns to normal. Because the Romney campaign fell short of a four point bounce, 538 is more confident in Obama reaching a majority in the EC. He is given a 74.5 percent chance of winning the EC with an average of 307.8 votes with a 51.0-47.8 margin in the popular vote. On the state level where the election is really won, Obama has increased his lead in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. Florida and Ohio are still a lean states, while Wisconsin has moved into the likely category. Montana and Arizona have moved out of the lock category for Romney.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

The new data considers the convention bounce of Mitt Romney. The goal for him to hit was a 4 point bounce. Anything over that and he would be making up ground. For those unaware of the convention bounce, candidates will have a rise in popularity after their conventions which is called a bounce because shortly thereafter that popularity returns to normal. Because the Romney campaign fell short of a four point bounce, 538 is more confident in Obama reaching a majority in the EC. He is given a 74.5 percent chance of winning the EC with an average of 307.8 votes with a 51.0-47.8 margin in the popular vote. On the state level where the election is really won, Obama has increased his lead in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. Florida and Ohio are still a lean states, while Wisconsin has moved into the likely category. Montana and Arizona have moved out of the lock category for Romney.

The bubble isn't interested.

Even McCain took the lead in the polls after the R convention. Didn't happen for Romney. The bubble doesnt understand that winning by 50.1% -47% instead of the 51%-43% like Obama did in 2008 (just like Silver predicted) in 272 EC states is still winning.

[mnchiefsguy]

Originally Posted by patteeu

If that happens, I'd place a hell of a lot more blame on the voters who couldn't get behind a more than qualified alternative than on the candidate. A turnaround specialist who has had success in everything he's ever led, public, private, and non-profit. You couldn't design a more qualified candidate for our current times if you were starting from scratch.

An Obama victory will be a victory of style over substance and a victory of those who want to spread the dwindling spoils of the past around over those who want to build a prosperous future.

I would disagree with you here. While I agree that Romney is the superior candidate, his campaign so far has failed to articulate his message in a successful manner to the American people. I am hoping this will change now that the RNC is over, and the campaign will be spend more of its large warchest of funds. Romney has a significant edge in funds raised at this point since Obama has already spent a large sum, and hopefully this will give him an opportunity to portray the differences between a Romeny presidency and another Obama turn.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy

I would disagree with you here. While I agree that Romney is the superior candidate, his campaign so far has failed to articulate his message in a successful manner to the American people. I am hoping this will change now that the RNC is over, and the campaign will be spend more of its large warchest of funds. Romney has a significant edge in funds raised at this point since Obama has already spent a large sum, and hopefully this will give him an opportunity to portray the differences between a Romeny presidency and another Obama turn.

No one should even need to hear what Romney is about given the obvious failure we've experienced for the past 4 years. There's no excuse for giving a vote to Barack Obama in 2012.