538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea

Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.

Although that may be true. Nate Silver is using a sofisticated scientific algorithm. His version of the algorithm work is based on most of the predicting and data mining algoritm's that are used in business, military and goverrnment.

They have made America a safer place, businesses find new business and help the government predict and respond to natural disasters.

Needless to say they are quite complex. I've worked with one that was over a million lines of code that all it did was predict peak performance of a Server.

In any complex data from such complicated algorithem's the data can be manipulated to justify a viewpoint. This is not the case in Nate Silver's data.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Although that may be true. Nate Silver is using a sofisticated scientific algorithm. His version of the algorithm work is based on most of the predicting and data mining algoritm's that are used in business, military and goverrnment.

They have made America a safer place, businesses find new business and help the government predict and respond to natural disasters.

Needless to say they are quite complex. I've worked with one that was over a million lines of code that all it did was predict peak performance of a Server.

In any complex data from such complicated algorithem's the data can be manipulated to justify a viewpoint. This is not the case in Nate Silver's data.

You don't know that.

[Extra Point]

Originally Posted by patteeu

You don't know that.

Your opinion: You Built It!

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

You don't know that.

No, i don't have access to Silver's emperical data but we all have access to the historical track record of that data. It is amazingly accuarte even when he picks Republicans to win or lose.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

No, i don't have access to Silver's emperical data but we all have access to the historical track record of that data. It is amazingly accuarte even when he picks Republicans to win or lose.

The question I'd ask about any predictor's claim of accuracy would be how accurate how far in advance? All the pollsters polls get more accurate as the election becomes imminent, for example, but 2 months out they are less so. I know that Silver has a good reputation, but it's not obvious to me that his reputation is built on two month advance predictions. That's all I'm saying.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

The question I'd ask about any predictor's claim of accuracy would be how accurate how far in advance? All the pollsters polls get more accurate as the election becomes imminent, for example, but 2 months out they are less so. I know that Silver has a good reputation, but it's not obvious to me that his reputation is built on two month advance predictions. That's all I'm saying.

True Dat. It's still a probability outcome prediction, not a certainty. And those probabilites change with time due to impacts from the variables in the algorithm.

I don't see those variables changing. Debates are less of a factor because gaffe's or "moments" are no longer campaign killers or propel the candidate to victory ie. Nixon's 5:00 shadow or regans are you better off than you were 4 years ago moment.

the only thing that can change the variables enough to create a different outcome is a "real" scandal directly connected to Obama. I don't see anything connected to a possible escalation with Iran that would bring Obama down.

It will be damn close. But, without taking 2 out of 3 of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio there is simply no path for Romney to win. Not saying that Romney cant take 2 out of those 3. It's just the chance % in Silver's algorithm.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

No, i don't have access to Silver's emperical data but we all have access to the historical track record of that data. It is amazingly accuarte even when he picks Republicans to win or lose.

One of the good things about his method is that he uses polls past record to indicate if it has any bias R/D. He has also predicted more than elections. His first big job was in creating a statistical model for a baseball publication.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

One of the good things about his method is that he uses polls past record to indicate if it has any bias R/D. He has also predicted more than elections. His first big job was in creating a statistical model for a baseball publication.

He actually got the idea from the way computer data mining was being done. He thought if he could apply those algorithm's to his passion (basball) it would help his baseball fantasy team. Then he quickly realized he could predict outcomes just about the same time as sabermetrics was hitting it big in the MLB front offices.

They may be millions of lines of code when you look at the code but they are just basic and/or/if statements. The trick is to keep all these simple statements simple as the code gets more complex. In the real world time is a factor, so its much harder to do than what Nate silver is doing.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by patteeu

The question I'd ask about any predictor's claim of accuracy would be how accurate how far in advance? All the pollsters polls get more accurate as the election becomes imminent, for example, but 2 months out they are less so. I know that Silver has a good reputation, but it's not obvious to me that his reputation is built on two month advance predictions. That's all I'm saying.

Elections have ebbs and flows. Somebody picking early in 1988 would have had Dukakis in a landslide. Certainly nobody can foresee the problems and pitfalls that are on the campaign trail. I think even a week before the election some have trouble picking a winner. In 2000 most networks called Florida for Gore comfortably on election day.

They just don't have the fine points to be able to call the individual close races like 538 can. Right up until the last election most thought that Pennsylvania would be close and that the election would hinge there. 538 saw past that. He predicted every state correctly except Indiana which was won by Obama by 1%. He also predicted correctly every senate race. The guy is good at what he does.

[fan4ever]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Here is the latest projections in the race for President from famed 538 prognosticator Nate Silver. Electoral vote Obama 301.5-Romney 236.5. Chances of winning Obama 72-28%. Popular vote Obama 50.8-48.1.

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.3%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 5.9%
Obama wins popular vote 68.5%
Romney wins popular vote 31.5%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.1%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 4.6%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 8.9%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 1.4%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.4%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 93.8%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 22.1%

Florida and Virginia are tossups.

Cool. Now you can stay home and not vote.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Elections have ebbs and flows. Somebody picking early in 1988 would have had Dukakis in a landslide. Certainly nobody can foresee the problems and pitfalls that are on the campaign trail. I think even a week before the election some have trouble picking a winner. In 2000 most networks called Florida for Gore comfortably on election day.

They just don't have the fine points to be able to call the individual close races like 538 can. Right up until the last election most thought that Pennsylvania would be close and that the election would hinge there. 538 saw past that. He predicted every state correctly except Indiana which was won by Obama by 1%. He also predicted correctly every senate race. The guy is good at what he does.

Again, you're not identifying when he made those predictions.

[cdcox]

August 25, 2010 he predicted that the Democrats would lose 6 to 7 seats.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/76/

In his final prediction, he predicted that the Democrats would lose 7 seats.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/66/

They ended up losing 6 seats.


In the gubernatorial races he predicted on September 3rd that the Republicans would control 30 seats.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/76/

That prediction held leading up to the elections:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/66/

In the end he ended up correctly calling 36 of the 37 races.

In the House race on September 10 he predicted the house had a 2/3 chance of going the Republican's direction.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/page/75/

In his final House prediction he under estimated the number of seats the Republicans would take but it was still within the margin of error:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

All things considered, we are certainly in the time range where his predictions have been meaningful and accurate in the past. It should be known that his models also consider the likelihood of election changing events, such as changes in unemployment between now and the election, in his predictions.

[whoman69]

One thing I didn't notice in the update is that Pennsylvania was no longer listed as a contested state. 538 gives Obama over a 90% chance of taking the Keystone state which makes the math pretty hard for Romney.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

Cool. Now you can stay home and not vote.

I'm a vet. Do you really think I'll stay home and not vote?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

One thing I didn't notice in the update is that Pennsylvania was no longer listed as a contested state. 538 gives Obama over a 90% chance of taking the Keystone state which makes the math pretty hard for Romney.

I think everyone is putting Pennsylvania in Obama's column. You see the map I posted. How many states I gave the Republicans in addition to all the Mccain states and Obama still gets over 300. It's just math.