Please, god: the housing market may be starting to recover.

[Direckshun]

Took us long enough. Jesus.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/bu...-way.html?_r=2

After Years of False Hopes, Signs of a Turn in Housing
By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
Published: June 27, 2012

WASHINGTON — Announcements of a housing recovery have become a wrongheaded rite of summer, but after several years of false hopes, evidence is accumulating that the optimists may finally be right.

The housing market is starting to recover. Prices are rising. Sales are increasing. Home builders are clearing lots and raising frames.

Joe Niece, a real estate agent in the Minneapolis suburb of Eden Prairie, said he recently concluded a streak of 13 consecutive bidding wars over homes that his clients wanted to buy. Each sold above the asking price.

“I just had a home that wasn’t supposed to go on the market for two weeks sold before it even went on the market,” Mr. Niece said. “It’s definitely a lot different than what we saw” during the last few summers.

Like the economic recovery that began three years ago, what happens next is likely to prove a little disappointing. The pace of recovery will probably be slow, and the prices of many homes will continue to decline.

Millions of people remain underwater, owing more on their homes than the homes are worth, and unable to sell. Millions of families still face foreclosure. And a setback in the still-fragile economic recovery could easily reverse the uptick in housing prices, too.

But roughly six years after the housing market began its longest and deepest slide since the Great Depression, a growing number of experts and people who actually put money into housing believe the end has come.

“Our sense is that the market is recovering, and we’re extremely confident that it’s not going to get worse,” said Ronnie Morgan, a San Diego real estate professional who recently created a $10 million partnership to buy foreclosed homes. The group, Alegria Real Estate Funds, already has bought about 20 homes in suburban communities, most of which they plan to hold as rental properties.

“It feels very much like we’ve hit a bottom and we’re starting to come off of that bottom,” said Stuart Miller, chief executive of Lennar, a major national home builder based in Miami. The company said Wednesday that second-quarter profits were higher than expected, and orders for new homes rose 40 percent.

“I’m a little nervous,” Mr. Miller quickly added in a conference call with analysts, “about saying the word ‘recovery.’ ”

The trend is clear in the data. The widely respected S.&P./Case-Shiller index reported earlier this week that sales prices for existing homes rose in April for the first time this year. Several other measures, including a seasonally adjusted version of the index, show that price increases began in February. The pace of housing construction has increased. And the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that pending home sales climbed to the highest level since the end of a federal tax credit for first-time buyers in September 2010.

This is the fourth consecutive year that the housing market has shown signs of revival, and each previous episode ended with prices renewing their downward slide.

But with each passing year, an eventual recovery has grown more likely. Prices have continued to fall, and the economy has continued to recover, a combination that has expanded the pool of potential buyers. The population has continued to grow while few new homes have been built.

Basic indicators of market health that bulged during the bubble, like the ratio of housing prices to income, have returned to more normal levels.

Government efforts to help homeowners have intensified, allowing more borrowers to refinance or avoid foreclosure.

“All bets are off if anything happens to the economy, but apart from that, I think the fundamentals look better than they’ve looked in 17 or 18 years,” said Richard K. Green, a professor of real estate at the University of Southern California.

Professor Green cited the combination of rising rents and low mortgage rates as a powerful inducement to potential buyers, both renters who would prefer to own and investors who want to become landlords.

“Compared to a lot of other investments right now this looks pretty good,” he said.

The influx of investors is a major reason that the market is looking stronger. Mr. Morgan, 56, built apartments before the housing crash. In 2010, seeing a new opportunity, he and some friends started bidding at the foreclosure auctions then held on the steps of the San Diego County Courthouse.

At first they bought properties to renovate and resell. Now they are focused on potential rental properties in the kinds of gated, planned communities in suburban San Diego that once were populated almost exclusively by people who owned their homes. Some of their tenants are former homeowners.

And competition has increased. The auctions were moved from the courthouse steps last year because the crowds had grown too large.

“There’s not a whole lot of other places to put your money,” Mr. Morgan said.

There are still reasons for caution. An unusually warm winter seems to have given a temporary and misleading boost to a range of economic indicators.

The pace of economic growth remains slow and fragile, shadowed by the risk that politicians in Europe and Washington will fail to address looming problems.

And the rise in prices is happening despite the vast number of vacant houses awaiting buyers, up to two million more than the normal level, with several million more houses still at risk of being foreclosed.

But this “shadow inventory” is not distributed uniformly, according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs. Even within metropolitan areas like Phoenix, the vacant houses are clustered in less desirable neighborhoods, while buyers are seeking homes in areas where there are few vacancies.

Under these circumstances, the researchers concluded, “It is possible for us to see both house price increases and excess housing supply at the same time.”

Indeed, in a growing number of areas demand for homes is outstripping supply.

The number of homes for sale has been falling for more than a year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Some owners are waiting for prices to rise; some of them must wait because they are underwater.

Mr. Niece, the Minnesota real estate agent, said he and his partner had seen their book of listings decline from about 120 properties to 70 properties, about 45 of which already are under contract.

“I have buyers every single day complaining that they can’t find houses,” he said.

Driving through a neighboring suburb last week, Mr. Niece said that he passed a sign outside another real estate office that read, “The market is great. We’ve sold all of our inventory. We need listings.”

[Direckshun]

http://www.crgraphs.com/2011/10/housing-graphs.html

[BucEyedPea]

Bubble, Bubble; Toil and Trouble


another bubble on the way....

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by Mister Slave

Took us long enough. Jesus.

This is what happens when you vote for communists...

Housing picture: 65 percent of markets worse off than before the bust

By Brady Dennis, Tuesday, October 23, 2:17 AM
The Washington Post


The past four years have hardly been a joyride for many of the nation’s homeowners.

But the economic suffering brought on by the housing bust has hit communities across America in vastly different ways, with some markets still ailing and others healthy, according to a new analysis released Monday by the research firm RealtyTrac.

The economic jolt from the housing bust has hit communities across the country in vastly different ways.

The company looked at how housing markets in 919 counties across the country have fared since 2008, based on such factors as changes in home prices, unemployment rates and foreclosure activity. The result: 65 percent of those communities were worse off than they were in 2008.

“A house often represents a homeowner’s biggest asset — or liability,” the RealtyTrac report stated. “Unfortunately many houses fall into the liability column for U.S. homeowners.”

The list of worse-off communities include places such as Cook County in Illinois (home to Chicago), where home prices have fallen nearly 20 percent, unemployment has risen and the inventory of foreclosures has soared. Areas around Atlanta, Tucson and Salt Late City also have suffered overall declines during the past four years.

Not surprisingly, the Washington area has fared better than most places. Specifically, the RealtyTrac report cites Fairfax County as a bright spot because house prices have increases slightly, while foreclosure starts and foreclosure inventories have fallen.

The report shows that counties where home prices have declined from four years ago have seen an average price drop of $69,000. Counties where prices have risen have seen an average price increase of $49,000.

In addition, RealtyTrac noted that counties won by Republican nominee John McCain in 2008 have fared slightly better than those won by President Obama — 29 percent of the GOP-voting counties studied showed increases in home prices during the past four years, compared with 26 percent of Democratic-voting counties.

While Monday’s RealtyTrac report offers another interesting glimpse at how different housing markets have fared in recent years, it’s unlikely by itself to provide much insight how housing issues will affect the outcome of the coming election.

Housing represents a significant part of the economy — not to mention one of the main drags on growth in recent years — and the most tangible, personal investment for many Americans. But house prices and foreclosure trends are simply one factor in a much broader economic picture that voters are likely consider when placing their ballots on Nov. 6. Tax reform, energy policy, approaches to national debt — all are prominent campaign issues.

In addition, whatever the data says about the housing market over the past four years, what actually matters to the voters might come down to a question of perspective and momentum.

On the one hand, when Obama was elected in 2008, the housing boom was already becoming the biggest housing bust in generations. On the other, critic’s say the administration’s efforts during Obama’s first term haven’t been nearly enough to repair the damage caused by that collapse.

The president has argued that the situation could have been much worse without the array of efforts he took to aid struggling homeowners, including helping more people refinance their loans and forging a major settlement with the big banks. And over the past year there has been marked improvement, with prices stabilizing in many markets and homebuilders ramping up construction again.

Neither candidate has done much talking about the housing conundrum on the campaign trail. But whether voters around the country believe the housing market is headed toward better days or still mired in its post-bubble slump could influence which box they check in the voting booth.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...314_story.html

[Direckshun]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000....html?mod=e2tw

New-Home Sales Rise 5.7%
BY ROBBIE WHELAN
Updated October 24, 2012, 5:12 p.m. ET

Sales of new homes jumped in September to their highest level in more than two years, the latest sign that the housing market is on firmer ground after a bruising five-year downturn.

Builders were on pace to sell new single-family homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000 units in September, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, up 5.7% from August, and 27.1% higher than September 2011's annual pace of 306,000. The level is the highest since April 2010, when first-time home buyers were rushing to qualify for a tax credit.

[Direckshun]

Phenomenal news.

***Edit: NBC News links are the worst.***

Home prices rose at faster pace in August
By The Associated Press

Home prices rose in nearly all U.S. cities last month, the latest evidence of a steady recovery in housing.

The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index reports that national home prices increased 2 percent in August compared with the same month a year ago. That's the third straight increase and a faster pace than in July.

And prices in hard-hit Las Vegas rose 0.9 percent, the first year-over-year gain since January 2007.

The report also says prices rose in August from July in 19 of the 20 cities tracked by the index. Prices had risen in all 20 cities in the previous three months.

Seattle reported a small decline of 0.1 percent in August from July. Prices are still 3.4 percent higher than a year ago.

[Direckshun]

Up.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/econ...ears-1C7172738

Housing starts hit highest in four years

Housing starts rose to their highest rate in more than four years in October, suggesting the housing market recovery was gaining steam, even though permits for future construction fell.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday housing starts increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000 units -- the highest since July 2008.

September's starts were revised down to show a 863,000-unit pace instead of the previously reported 872,000 units. Economists had expected groundbreaking to slow to a 840,000-unit rate last month.

The department said superstorm Sandy, which slammed the East Coast in late October, had a minimal impact on the data. The Northeast accounted for about 8 percent of overall housing starts. Groundbreaking in the Northeast fell 6.5 percent.

The housing market has turned around after an unprecedented collapse that landed the economy in its worst recession since the Great Depression. The recovery, marked by rising home sales, prices and building activity is being driven by pent-up demand against the backdrop of record low mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve has targeted housing as a channel to boost growth, announcing in September that it would buy $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month until the outlook for employment improved substantially.

Residential construction is up 41.9 percent compared to October last year. Housing starts are now about 40 percent of their 2.27 million-unit peak in January 2006.

Homebuilding is expected to add to gross domestic product growth this year for the first time since 2005.

Last month, groundbreaking for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, eased 0.2 percent to a 594,000-unit pace. Starts for multi-family homes surged 11.9 percent to a 300,000-unit rate, partly reflecting increased demand for rental apartments.

Building permits fell 2.7 percent to a 866,000-unit pace in October after jumping 11.1 percent the prior month. The drop last month was concentrated in the multifamily segment and is likely to be short-lived.

A report on Monday showed confidence among homebuilders hit its highest level in 6-1/2 years in November.

Economists had expected permits to fall to an 865,000-unit pace. Permits to build single-family homes rose 2.2 percent last month to a 562,000-unit pace. Permits for multi-family homes fell 10.6 percent to a 304,000-unit rate.

[lewdog]

I need the housing market to slow down. I am not ready to buy a house just yet!

[stonedstooge]

I just bought a house last month. Not sure what the banks are doing, but it was a foreclosure that was sold and assessed at 3x what I paid for it and, if the realtor had the right information, had 2x what I paid for it still in the red

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by stonedstooge

I just bought a house last month. Not sure what the banks are doing, but it was a foreclosure that was sold and assessed at 3x what I paid for it and, if the realtor had the right information, had 2x what I paid for it still in the red

Nice man, sounds like you scored! I am still unsure about how much money (percentage) I should have saved for a downpayment?

[Direckshun]

More details on this month's numbers:

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that builders broke ground on homes in October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000. That’s a 3.6 percent gain from September.

Single-family home construction dipped 0.2 percent to an annual rate of 594,000, down from a four-year high in the previous month. Apartment construction, which is more volatile from month to month, rose 10 percent to an annual rate of 285,000.

Applications for building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 2.7 percent to 866,000, after jumping 12 percent in September to a four-year high. Still, permit applications to build single-family homes rose to their highest level since July 2008.

[Comrade Crapski]

Without major improvements in jobs and wages the housing "market" is kerplunk, as is the entire economy.

[the steam]

Didn't the Federal Reserve announce recently that they would buy 40 billion a month worth of mortgage back securities? It's artificial but who cares as long as housing prices get back where they belong.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by the steam

Didn't the Federal Reserve announce recently that they would buy 40 billion a month worth of mortgage back securities? It's artificial but who cares as long as housing prices get back where they belong.

Good point. I just think the bold part should say inflate housing prices to a new artificial level.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Nice man, sounds like you scored! I am still unsure about how much money (percentage) I should have saved for a downpayment?

20%

[Direckshun]

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-mone...back-to-normal

Housing market crosses halfway mark back to normal
By Vicki Needham
12/21/12 11:49 AM ET

The housing market crossed the halfway mark last month on the long road back to normal.

A housing barometer that weighs three key indicators — construction starts, existing home sales and delinquencies and foreclosures — is now 51 percent back toward what is considered a healthy market, according to Trulia, a group that keeps an eye on the sector's progress.

Sales picked up pace, delinquencies and foreclosures continued their slow but steady decline, and while construction levels fell a bit, starts still hovered around the highest level of activity in four years.

Hurricane Sandy reduced activity in the Northeast with October and November showing smaller gains relative to previous months compared with the rest of the country.

Construction starts dipped in November but remain strong and are 37 percent of the way back to normal.

Starts in November were at an annual pace of 861,000, up 22 percent year-over-year.

For the past three months, construction starts have remained solidly above 800,000–the highest level since September 2008.

Existing home sales rose once again in November up 6 percent month-over-month to 5.04 million, the highest level since November 2009 and 73 percent of the way back to normal.

Even better, “distressed” sales (foreclosures and short sales) represent a declining share of overall sales, making way for more “conventional” home sales.

The delinquency and foreclosure rate maintained a new post-crisis low.

In November, 10.63 percent of mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure, down a tad from the 10.64 percent in October. The combined rate is at its lowest level in four years and is 41 percent back to normal.

The market hit bottom in 2009 and it has taken three full years just to get this far.