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Old 06-28-2012, 06:21 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Please, god: the housing market may be starting to recover.

Took us long enough. Jesus.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/bu...-way.html?_r=2

After Years of False Hopes, Signs of a Turn in Housing
By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
Published: June 27, 2012

WASHINGTON — Announcements of a housing recovery have become a wrongheaded rite of summer, but after several years of false hopes, evidence is accumulating that the optimists may finally be right.

The housing market is starting to recover. Prices are rising. Sales are increasing. Home builders are clearing lots and raising frames.

Joe Niece, a real estate agent in the Minneapolis suburb of Eden Prairie, said he recently concluded a streak of 13 consecutive bidding wars over homes that his clients wanted to buy. Each sold above the asking price.

“I just had a home that wasn’t supposed to go on the market for two weeks sold before it even went on the market,” Mr. Niece said. “It’s definitely a lot different than what we saw” during the last few summers.

Like the economic recovery that began three years ago, what happens next is likely to prove a little disappointing. The pace of recovery will probably be slow, and the prices of many homes will continue to decline.

Millions of people remain underwater, owing more on their homes than the homes are worth, and unable to sell. Millions of families still face foreclosure. And a setback in the still-fragile economic recovery could easily reverse the uptick in housing prices, too.

But roughly six years after the housing market began its longest and deepest slide since the Great Depression, a growing number of experts and people who actually put money into housing believe the end has come.

“Our sense is that the market is recovering, and we’re extremely confident that it’s not going to get worse,” said Ronnie Morgan, a San Diego real estate professional who recently created a $10 million partnership to buy foreclosed homes. The group, Alegria Real Estate Funds, already has bought about 20 homes in suburban communities, most of which they plan to hold as rental properties.

“It feels very much like we’ve hit a bottom and we’re starting to come off of that bottom,” said Stuart Miller, chief executive of Lennar, a major national home builder based in Miami. The company said Wednesday that second-quarter profits were higher than expected, and orders for new homes rose 40 percent.

“I’m a little nervous,” Mr. Miller quickly added in a conference call with analysts, “about saying the word ‘recovery.’ ”

The trend is clear in the data. The widely respected S.&P./Case-Shiller index reported earlier this week that sales prices for existing homes rose in April for the first time this year. Several other measures, including a seasonally adjusted version of the index, show that price increases began in February. The pace of housing construction has increased. And the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that pending home sales climbed to the highest level since the end of a federal tax credit for first-time buyers in September 2010.

This is the fourth consecutive year that the housing market has shown signs of revival, and each previous episode ended with prices renewing their downward slide.

But with each passing year, an eventual recovery has grown more likely. Prices have continued to fall, and the economy has continued to recover, a combination that has expanded the pool of potential buyers. The population has continued to grow while few new homes have been built.

Basic indicators of market health that bulged during the bubble, like the ratio of housing prices to income, have returned to more normal levels.

Government efforts to help homeowners have intensified, allowing more borrowers to refinance or avoid foreclosure.

“All bets are off if anything happens to the economy, but apart from that, I think the fundamentals look better than they’ve looked in 17 or 18 years,” said Richard K. Green, a professor of real estate at the University of Southern California.

Professor Green cited the combination of rising rents and low mortgage rates as a powerful inducement to potential buyers, both renters who would prefer to own and investors who want to become landlords.

“Compared to a lot of other investments right now this looks pretty good,” he said.

The influx of investors is a major reason that the market is looking stronger. Mr. Morgan, 56, built apartments before the housing crash. In 2010, seeing a new opportunity, he and some friends started bidding at the foreclosure auctions then held on the steps of the San Diego County Courthouse.

At first they bought properties to renovate and resell. Now they are focused on potential rental properties in the kinds of gated, planned communities in suburban San Diego that once were populated almost exclusively by people who owned their homes. Some of their tenants are former homeowners.

And competition has increased. The auctions were moved from the courthouse steps last year because the crowds had grown too large.

“There’s not a whole lot of other places to put your money,” Mr. Morgan said.

There are still reasons for caution. An unusually warm winter seems to have given a temporary and misleading boost to a range of economic indicators.

The pace of economic growth remains slow and fragile, shadowed by the risk that politicians in Europe and Washington will fail to address looming problems.

And the rise in prices is happening despite the vast number of vacant houses awaiting buyers, up to two million more than the normal level, with several million more houses still at risk of being foreclosed.

But this “shadow inventory” is not distributed uniformly, according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs. Even within metropolitan areas like Phoenix, the vacant houses are clustered in less desirable neighborhoods, while buyers are seeking homes in areas where there are few vacancies.

Under these circumstances, the researchers concluded, “It is possible for us to see both house price increases and excess housing supply at the same time.”

Indeed, in a growing number of areas demand for homes is outstripping supply.

The number of homes for sale has been falling for more than a year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Some owners are waiting for prices to rise; some of them must wait because they are underwater.

Mr. Niece, the Minnesota real estate agent, said he and his partner had seen their book of listings decline from about 120 properties to 70 properties, about 45 of which already are under contract.

“I have buyers every single day complaining that they can’t find houses,” he said.

Driving through a neighboring suburb last week, Mr. Niece said that he passed a sign outside another real estate office that read, “The market is great. We’ve sold all of our inventory. We need listings.”
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:33 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
#1 shouldn't have taken this long
#2 we still have at least one correction to come BUT I think it will only negate the growth not set us back.. so I agree that we are at bottom now, but we may have to stay here a little while longer
Why shouldn't it have taken this long? I'd like to see your well versed opinion here as well.
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:38 PM   #62
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To be fair, he's basing his projections on the election....

Romney wins, vast and somewhat immediate relief/improvement.

Obama wins, straight to the sewer.

He's a pretty sharp guy when it comes to the economy. I've come to take what he says when talking about such issues pretty seriously. Time will tell.
I'm sorry but that is terrible reasoning.

There is a tremendous inventory overhang. We won't see any significant price increases for a long time but we also won't see price declines.

Private equity is raising money in a hurry to buy large tracts of homes from banks for nice prices and the PE firms intend to hold onto the properties and lease them out.

The banks are in much better capital positions now, so they don't have to rush on foreclosures.

Who ever the president is will have no effect on this.
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:39 PM   #63
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Wait till interest rates go up, ouch
And when do you expect this? Right now the world is content to loan money to the government at extremely low yields. What's going to change that dynamic within the next couple of years?
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:17 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
And when do you expect this? Right now the world is content to loan money to the government at extremely low yields. What's going to change that dynamic within the next couple of years?
Well if you can tell me exactly when they will go up you should make a lot of money however with our debt and spending out of control and printing presses running non-stop it can't be that far away. Short term housing may go up, I'll give you that.

The markets usually give you a second chance to get out but if you have the right property at a very low fixed rate you can always pay it off with cheaper dollars so there is the trade off. When interest rates rise though look out.
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Old 08-26-2012, 11:13 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Why shouldn't it have taken this long? I'd like to see your well versed opinion here as well.
Quote:
Neil Barofsky, the former Special Inspector General for TARP, writes that it was clear by late 2009 that the signature effort to boost the housing market, a mortgage modification plan called HAMP with $50 billion in available funding, would be a failure. Yet the administration has neither fully abandoned the effort nor tried to do it the right way. Only this past month, a similar plan to offer debt relief to homeowners through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was rebuffed by an independent regulator. For those who are counting, that’s three-plus years of uncertainty about the assistance that would be given to homeowners. As Barofsky writes,

It may be a fair debate whether we should have gone with the “all in” approach that I and others have advocated or the “do nothing and let the market find its natural bottom” approach advocated by many conservatives. There should, though, be little question that the chosen policy – a “foam the runway” approach that assisted the banks and only a fraction of the homeowners that could have benefited – has been a failure and has left us stuck in economic mediocrity.

Nor are homeowner assistance efforts the only source of uncertainty in the housing sector. E21’s Christopher Papagianis argues that “there is perhaps no other major industry that faces more micro-policy uncertainty than housing today,” because of pending regulations regarding servicing and underwriting.
bam. but please... tell everyone here how you know more then Barofsky.
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Old 08-27-2012, 09:24 AM   #66
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bam. but please... tell everyone here how you know more then Barofsky.
No, I just watned to see if you would cite some obscure papers and misinterpret them again.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:21 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Took us long enough. Jesus.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/bu...-way.html?_r=2

After Years of False Hopes, Signs of a Turn in Housing
By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
Published: June 27, 2012
Another good call, Ereckshun.



Owners Lose Possessions After Home Near Twentynine Palms Is Mistakenly Foreclosed

TWENTYNINE PALMS (CBSLA.com) — The owners of a modest home near Twentynine Palms lost their cherished possessions after a bank mistakenly foreclosed their residence.

A crew broke into Alvin and Pat Tjosaas’ desert home and took everything after being directed by Wells Fargo to secure the structure.

The couple, however, didn’t have a mortgage on the home.

Alvin said the deputy sheriff said, “Good news, we know who took (your possessions)…Wells Fargo. Bad news, your stuff is all gone.”

All the married couple has now are three generations of memories.



Alvin, a retired mason, built the home with his father when he was a teenager.

“I know every inch, every rock…my mom mixed all the cement by hand,” he said.

Alvin and his wife would later bring their six children to their desert oasis.

“My little kids (would) come out here and their dresses were the same color as the wildflowers,” said Alvin.

A spokesman for Wells Fargo released a statement apologizing to the couple.

“We are deeply sorry for the very personal losses the Tjosaas family suffered as a result of their home being mistakenly secured,” said Alfredo Padilla. “We are moving quickly to reach out to the family to resolve this unfortunate situation in an attempt to right this wrong.”

Alvin and Pat remain distraught.

“When you put your heart into something…it makes me real sad. I’m just glad I have my sweetheart. We’ve been together a long time,” said Alvin.

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/...ly-foreclosed/
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:25 AM   #68
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Another good call, Ereckshun.


First off, this has nothing to do with his post.

Secondly, how is it funny that a home was emptied by Wells Fargo by accident?

You're a worthless, dumb ****.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:52 AM   #69
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They should just stop building new houses for like 10 years. That would do the trick.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:53 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by BWillie007 View Post
They should just stop building new houses for like 10 years. That would do the trick.
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Old 09-07-2012, 10:20 AM   #71
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Nobody's building anyway. Go try to get a construction loan.
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:44 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Another good call, Ereckshun.



Owners Lose Possessions After Home Near Twentynine Palms Is Mistakenly Foreclosed

TWENTYNINE PALMS (CBSLA.com) — The owners of a modest home near Twentynine Palms lost their cherished possessions after a bank mistakenly foreclosed their residence.

A crew broke into Alvin and Pat Tjosaas’ desert home and took everything after being directed by Wells Fargo to secure the structure.

The couple, however, didn’t have a mortgage on the home.

Alvin said the deputy sheriff said, “Good news, we know who took (your possessions)…Wells Fargo. Bad news, your stuff is all gone.”

All the married couple has now are three generations of memories.



Alvin, a retired mason, built the home with his father when he was a teenager.

“I know every inch, every rock…my mom mixed all the cement by hand,” he said.

Alvin and his wife would later bring their six children to their desert oasis.

“My little kids (would) come out here and their dresses were the same color as the wildflowers,” said Alvin.

A spokesman for Wells Fargo released a statement apologizing to the couple.

“We are deeply sorry for the very personal losses the Tjosaas family suffered as a result of their home being mistakenly secured,” said Alfredo Padilla. “We are moving quickly to reach out to the family to resolve this unfortunate situation in an attempt to right this wrong.”

Alvin and Pat remain distraught.

“When you put your heart into something…it makes me real sad. I’m just glad I have my sweetheart. We’ve been together a long time,” said Alvin.

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/...ly-foreclosed/
Wells Fargo seems to have a lot of trouble getting their shit straight. This is the third or fourth story I have seen this year of them "foreclosing" on a home that they don't have a mortgage for. Sounds like they need to replace some employees and get some folks who can read and figure out what mortgages they do have.
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:45 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Wells Fargo seems to have a lot of trouble getting their shit straight. This is the third or fourth story I have seen this year of them "foreclosing" on a home that they don't have a mortgage for. Sounds like they need to replace some employees and get some folks who can read and figure out what mortgages they do have.
Maybe some prosecutions and prison time, along with multiplied reparations is what's called for.
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:54 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by LOCOChief View Post
Nobody's building anyway. Go try to get a construction loan.
There's plenty of building in Johnson County, at least as of this time last year. Lots of building in my hood as well.
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:56 AM   #75
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Maybe some prosecutions and prison time, along with multiplied reparations is what's called for.
Sounds good to me. They essentially destroyed these people's homes, they need to be held accountable for that.
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