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Old 01-31-2012, 01:52 PM  
Saul Good Saul Good is offline
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****The official NEW new conference realignment thread.****

the second thread has been pronounced dead.
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Old 05-07-2012, 09:57 PM   #1591
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Originally Posted by Saulbadguy View Post
NC State and Virginia Tech have been linked to the SEC in multiple rumors. Not so much with UNC or Duke. I wonder why that is?
Duke and UNC are tied at the hip much like K-State and KU. Duke is complete and utter shit in football.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:00 PM   #1592
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Originally Posted by Wickedson View Post
I'd take UNC over any of them. They are so much more prominent it's not even comparable.
You are out of your mind. No one is going to watch a UNC football game. Clemson on the other hand, creates at least 1 or 2 new interesting football games per year that people around the country would be interested in seeing.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:01 PM   #1593
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Originally Posted by UCF Knight View Post
Duke and UNC are tied at the hip much like K-State and KU. Duke is complete and utter shit in football.
I'd have gone with a one word answer. "football"
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:12 PM   #1594
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
You are out of your mind. No one is going to watch a UNC football game. Clemson on the other hand, creates at least 1 or 2 new interesting football games per year that people around the country would be interested in seeing.
Really? I watched a Clemson football game once to see CJ Spiller. It was boring and they lost.

They are a completely overrated program with a shit endowment. I'm not interested in them at all, and the Big 12 isn't either...
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:13 PM   #1595
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
The contract has automatic escalators if quality schools are added in an expansion. If the FSU/Clemson rumors pan out, we're at about 24. Then the conference championship game is worth at least another 2 million per, putting it at 26. Finally, everyone owns their tier 3 rights, and most schools worth a damn can get at least 4. So, basically if the Big 12 picks off 2 good schools from the ACC, they are all in the $30 million club.
yep. One would definitely assume that the Big 12 is looking to expand and bust this deal wide open.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:16 PM   #1596
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Originally Posted by Saulbadguy View Post
NC State and Virginia Tech have been linked to the SEC in multiple rumors. Not so much with UNC or Duke. I wonder why that is?
UNC would never join the SEC. For the same reasons many schools would never join that conference. Nothing against them, just how it is.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:24 PM   #1597
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Originally Posted by Wickedson View Post
Really? I watched a Clemson football game once to see CJ Spiller. It was boring and they lost.

They are a completely overrated program with a shit endowment. I'm not interested in them at all, and the Big 12 isn't either...
Now, imagine how uninteresting a UNC football game must be.

Clemson is not a FSU, OU, or Texas. But, they are a very solid #2 who can more than pay their way into the conference. They went to the Orange bowl just LAST YEAR, went to a bowl every year in the prior 10 years, and have played in the ACC championship game a couple times recently.

North Carolina is a steaming pile in football who would add almost nothing to the conference. Clemson is 1 of only 5 schools in the ACC who are worth a damn in football, and would also be taken ahead of Louisville.

If the most recent rumors that the Big 12 is looking at expanding to 14 schools, and UL and BYU aren't on the list are true, then we may be looking at a full-blown ACC jailbreak soon. My guess (if its true, maybe it isnt): FSU, CU, the U, and VT. That added to the Big 12 would be one HELL of a conference.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:26 PM   #1598
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wickedson View Post
Really? I watched a Clemson football game once to see CJ Spiller. It was boring and they lost.

They are a completely overrated program with a shit endowment. I'm not interested in them at all, and the Big 12 isn't either...
Sorry, I disagree. Clemson has a very passionate football fan base, history and market share. What they don't have is a marquee slate of conference games in the ACC. No matter you personal taste about Clemson, they are a football name that "move the needles" when TV picks their big games. They're ranked 18 in the early ESPN poll.

You match Clemson up with OU, UT and whatever Big 12 program is ranked that year and you will get the average "college football fan" to watch it, not just people connected to one of the two programs.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:30 PM   #1599
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Now, imagine how uninteresting a UNC football game must be.

Clemson is not a FSU, OU, or Texas. But, they are a very solid #2 who can more than pay their way into the conference. They went to the Orange bowl just LAST YEAR, went to a bowl every year in the prior 10 years, and have played in the ACC championship game a couple times recently.

North Carolina is a steaming pile in football who would add almost nothing to the conference. Clemson is 1 of only 5 schools in the ACC who are worth a damn in football, and would also be taken ahead of Louisville.

If the most recent rumors that the Big 12 is looking at expanding to 14 schools, and UL and BYU aren't on the list are true, then we may be looking at a full-blown ACC jailbreak soon. My guess (if its true, maybe it isnt): FSU, CU, the U, and VT. That added to the Big 12 would be one HELL of a conference.
Yes, getting those 4 schools would be a tremendous haul. I wouldn't be so sure the ACC is just going to "break up" though. There is too much tradition between so many of those schools just to give it up. Most of the schools we see changing conferences don't value their past and I'm not sure the ACC guys fit into that category. They have accomplished too much where they are. They will hold strong just like the core of the Big 12 has...
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:49 PM   #1600
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Yes, getting those 4 schools would be a tremendous haul. I wouldn't be so sure the ACC is just going to "break up" though. There is too much tradition between so many of those schools just to give it up. Most of the schools we see changing conferences don't value their past and I'm not sure the ACC guys fit into that category. They have accomplished too much where they are. They will hold strong just like the core of the Big 12 has...
Depends on which schools. Consider this, Maryland is in deep financial trouble and the new ACC contract they are trying to finalize isn't going to solve what ails them, making them prime for the picking.

If FSU (who announced financial shortfalls as well despite one of their best all around seasons in history) and Clemson say no to an ACC GoR and instead go t the Big XII, it could start off a domino effect.

The SEC has "an alignment problem" with Missouri. I saw one SEC article that intimated that the Missouri in the East Division would be temporary until they add two more. They want states outside their footprint that increase their market share for the network they want to put together. Virginia Tech and NC State fit this scenario to a T.

Now, the ACC has lost four members and its ability to host a championship game, which would probably put their contract with ESPN in jeopardy. This makes the other schools who think they have something valuable (a football brand, not many left unless you include G Tech and Miami or TV market share, like G Tech, Maryland, Miami, and Virginia). The Big East is also shaky exposing teams like Rutgers and Louisville.

Guess who has spots to fill: the B!G and the Big 12. If I had to guess:

B!G : Rutgers, Maryland, UNC and Virginia/G-Tech

Big XII : Louisville and Miami/G-Tech

But it all depends on who moves first and what Notre Dame does, if anything.

After that, the remaining ACC and BEAST teams form a basketball first conference. UNC will part with Duke as long as they are guaranteed to continue the series with them. Hell, the B!G might even take Duke if they go the UNC route.

There is definite unrest in Clemson about the ACC and FSU regarding being undervalued in a basketball conference. Maryland needs cash. Sometimes, tradition only goes so far.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:49 PM   #1601
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They may prefer to stay in the ACC. In fact, I bet they wish they could.

However, the ACC is in very, very serious trouble, and most of it is their own fault. We're now at a point where a concept that would seem hilariously unlikely less than a year ago, is now looking very probable. This is a bit of a complicated perfect storm miraculously breaking our way, but briefly:

A year ago the Big 12 was a wreck. It almost died at the hands of the PAC 12, but dysfunctional Texas politics inadvertantly saved the conference. Meanwhile the ACC, thinking they were being proactive for their survival, decided to expand. WVU publicly applied, and all the southern football schools voted for them. However, WVU fell one vote short, the UNC/Duke tobacco road overlords won the day, and voted in Syracuse and Pitt. Two schools who are crap in football but eh, who cares, the ACC has an auto-bid so the football schools should be satisfied with that, basketball is strengthened, and they get into new markets. After the Big 12 comes together in a shotgun marriage and votes for the 6-year grant of rights, TCU happily applies for membership, and WVU reluctantly follows, applying to their second choice. Fast forward. Against all odds, somehow the Big 12 begins to get along. They get a well-respected man across college sports to be commissioner, work out a deal with ESPN, and are about to get PAID. They also agree to a THIRTEEN YEAR grant of rights, locking every team down in iron chains. In the world of college sports, 13 years is nuts. The Big 12 is now probably one of the most stable conferences in the country with a rich contract.

Now, what about the ACC?

The BCS

Last year, the ACC had an auto-bid. Beginning in 2014 (I think) auto-bids are going away, most likely in favor of the best-4-conference-champs-ranked-in-the-top-6 scheme. Before, strength of schedule didn't matter much, if you had an auto-bid, your golden. Now, SOS is everything. The ACC's invitation of two horrible football teams HAMMERS the ACC's SOS. If you back-test what would have happened the prior TEN years if the proposed BCS system were in place, the ACC would have made the playoffs only once. Because the ACC voted for basketball instead of WVU, the few football powers in the conference are staring down the barrel of needing an undefeated season just to qualify for the playoffs. If, say, FSU lost just 1 game, they'd have to pray that 1 of the big 4 conferences had a major down year, or they wont make the playoffs.

So, the ACC schools will now probably have a very tough road to the post-season, and they really have no one to blame but themselves.

Money

We covered this above. The ACC is going to, at best, make about $15MM per school, and thats with tier 1, 2 AND 3 controlled by the conference. Big 12 schools will almost double that. That doesn't count money from bowl games and the postseason (shared in the conference), which the Big 12 champ will almost always make, and the ACC champ probably wont. As for the lower bowls, the Big 12's bowls are all better than the ACC's bowls.

Finally, FSU is dead-ass broke and desperate. They have a $2.4MM deficit for next season, and they have announced that they may have to cut expenses from travel and recruiting. FSU fans are now spooked and ready to run before their beloved football program becomes irrelevant. Other ACC football teams have similar problems. I don't doubt that FSU's budget problems are real, but this looks to me like they may have seen the writing on the wall, have been talking to the Big 12 for a long time, and are now making a public case to prepare their fans to accept a move. (plus it helps in any lawsuit the ACC may file, if FSU can say "hey, sorry guys, we didn't want to leave, but we're broke, and we know we can earn more elsewhere")

In just a few months, the Big 12 may, somehow, miraculously, complete a full turnaround from dead conference walking, to perhaps the undisputed #2 football conference in the country, perhaps making a run at the SEC.
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Old 05-07-2012, 11:14 PM   #1602
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One of the guys on the West Virginia board devised his own "program worth" scale. One thing it doesn't take into consideration is academic status, which could be prized by a conference like the B!G. Obviously not scientific, but interesting none the less:

Quote:
Expansion is largely based on TV market size, public interest in the team, and success on the field.

I looked at 5 categories
1)TV market size
2)wins since 2002
3)losses since 2002
4)New Year's day or later bowl appearances since 2002(aka quality bowls based on popularity and record) (I took out the January 9th big east bowl)
5)Average bowl TV rating since 2002

Then ranked the teams 1-11 in each category.

I used the tv market number twice to give it equal weight with the other two ideas expansion has been largely based on.

Once I did that added the ranks in each category for each team.

The lower the total number the more the team is worth as an expansion candidate (all numbers are based on data from 2002 on. Here is the total score for the teams.

1) FSU 19 points
2) Notre Dame 25 points
3) Virginia Tech 27 points
4) Miami 28 points
5) Georgia Tech 35 points
6) Cinncy 40 points
7) Clemson 42 points
8) Maryland 46 points
9) Louisville 47 points
10) Rutgers 48 points
11) NCstate 55 points.

Things worth noting:

*Rutger's 2002, 2003, and 2004 records drastically throw off their recent sustained successes. They would be worth more than Maryland Louisville if the wins and loss numbers were based from 2005 on. Not sure if it is fair to include "old" Rutgers numbers in this.

*Cinncy's TV rating number versus Tim Tebow and Florida drastically threw off their average TV bowl ranking. (I am pretty sure that most TV sets were on to watch Tim and not Cinncy) It was enough to get bump them 7 to 8 spots in that category. Take away Tebow and they have a score around Maryland and Louisville total in the 45 to 48 range.

*Georgia Tech had 2 bowl games that registered below a 1 by the neilson numbers, which no other team had below a a 1.5 in any bowl game. But they also some very high neilson numbers in other games. Not sure what to take away from that.

*Virginia Tech and FSU were the only team to finish 1, 2 or 3 in every category but TV market size.

*NC state was the only team that was horribly ranked in every category other than TV market size, they should be left in the ACC. They bring nothing.

*Miami's TV bowl numbers are impressive whether they have 7 wins or 10 wins. They are amazing when they are undefeated. There is a strong argument to made for there inclusion over everyone but ND and FSU, even with the prospect of NCAA sanctions.

What did I take away from looking at everything?
1)If the Big 12 can get 2 or 4 ACC school they should take them before the Big East schools.
2)There is little reason to take any of the Big East schools or Maryland......... unless the Big 12 takes Maryland and Rutgers based solely on TV market size, they both offer very little and the public doesn't care about them.
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Old 05-07-2012, 11:24 PM   #1603
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That reminds me, Notre Dame could now be in play too, if the new postseason scheme effectively shuts out independents, as seems likely. I'm not really expecting anything there though, because if they are forced into a conference, they probably go B1G, but still something to keep in mind.
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Old 05-08-2012, 05:46 AM   #1604
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I suppose if any of those schools wants to get all uppity about academics they may refuse.
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Old 05-08-2012, 06:05 AM   #1605
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Originally Posted by Wickedson View Post
Yes, getting those 4 schools would be a tremendous haul. I wouldn't be so sure the ACC is just going to "break up" though. There is too much tradition between so many of those schools just to give it up. Most of the schools we see changing conferences don't value their past and I'm not sure the ACC guys fit into that category. They have accomplished too much where they are. They will hold strong just like the core of the Big 12 has...
Some of the teams that aren't changing conferences don't seem to value their past too much either.
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