MELLINGER: Should The Chiefs Move On From Smith?

[OnTheWarpath15]

Yep, another Alex Smith thread - but a solid and fair read from Sam Mellinger.

The only way forward is through brutal honesty and realistic self-evaluation. No sport moves as quickly, or with such little empathy, as the NFL.

Only fools assume what happened in the past will continue to happen in the future, unless that assumption is “the Patriots will win every year from now until armageddon because Bill Belichick is an alien.”

And so it is that this particular group of Chiefs players and executives attempt to solve a puzzle that no group of Chiefs players and executives has solved since 1970, which is so long ago CBS erased the tape to save money:

Get to the Super Bowl.

And it’s hard to believe that will happen without addressing the quarterback situation.

This is not a call for the Chiefs to walk away from Alex Smith, even though this is the first offseason since his arrival in which they could do it without a fatal salary cap hit. This is a call for them to look, to try, to make sure they don’t have access to a better option — whether that’s Tony Romo in a trade, Deshaun Watson in the draft (which would almost certainly require a trade up), or anything else.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...#storylink=cpy

[Black Bob]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

So then it's just a coincidence that throughout the entire season the same pattern has occurred.

start the game - good offense,good smith

middle of the game - shit offense,shit smith

End of the game with the lead - shit offense,shit smith

End of the game without the lead - good offense,good smith

All year long we have shut down our offense after getting a lead.


That's absolutely on Reid.

Yep, this was not the same offense we ran during Reid's first three years here.

[MahiMike]

I thought Andy/Dorsey said they liked to draft a QB every draft. I think they have all but this year, correct?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

I thought Andy/Dorsey said they liked to draft a QB every draft. I think they have all but this year, correct?

2013: None drafted but signed Bray.
2014: Murray in the 5th
2015: None but brought in Pryor (I think)
2016: Hogan in the 5th or 6th.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

So then it's just a coincidence that throughout the entire season the same pattern has occurred.

start the game - good offense,good smith

middle of the game - shit offense,shit smith

End of the game with the lead - shit offense,shit smith

End of the game without the lead - good offense,good smith

All year long we have shut down our offense after getting a lead.


That's absolutely on Reid.

How do they shit the offense down? I mean shit, it's not as if it's run run pass punt shit.

I dunno, who knows

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

You switch QBs for sunday's game, Steelers would have won by at least 10

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Think about it. Alex Smith is the one shutting down the offense. He literally won't do shit until his back is against the wall. Hence the come from behind in Week 1 and what you saw against Pittsburgh in the 4th quarter. He has no choice but to make tough throws. If it's a close game....he's so ****ing scared that he's going to make a mistake....that he ****ing shuts down and goes fetal.

Alex Smith is not the one calling sideway plays over and over again once we get a lead. Smith is not the one calling bubble screens.

Some play has reads where Smith can chicken out but several of the plays we have are catch/throw plays where Smith is not making reads to not throw it deep.

Hell, some plays we call don't have a single receiver beyond 5 yards from the Los.

[Black Bob]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

Alex Smith is not the one calling sideway plays over and over again once we get a lead. Smith is not the one calling bubble screens.

Some play has reads where Smith can chicken out but several of the plays we have are catch/throw plays where Smith is not making reads to not throw it deep.

Hell, some plays we call don't have a single receiver beyond 5 yards from the Los.

No shit. Why do we have to run plays that require a lot of setting up and time to develop? I mean those TE tosses seem really desperate.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by O.city

How do they shit the offense down? I mean shit, it's not as if it's run run pass punt shit.

I dunno, who knows

We gain the lead by throwing the ball where the receivers are moving forward and are down the field. The receivers catch the ball while running and are already 5-15 yards down the field. Mix in some runs and our offense looks great.

We shut our offense down when we start getting cute and throwing the ball sideways. Our receivers are stationary when catching the ball and they are within 5 yards of the LoS, often even behind it. No Yac, no play mixture ... defense gets aggressive because every play is in front of them.

Watch the tape, as soon as Reid start "going sideway" our offense turns to complete shit.

I'm not absolving Alex Smith from bad plays. His vision and accuracy are mediocre. Doesn't change that our play calling is inconsistent as hell and is a big part of the problem.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Black Bob

No shit. Why do we have to run plays that require a lot of setting up and time to develop? I mean those TE tosses seem really desperate.

When don't need all that cute bullshit.

Our offense is best when we run basic slants and outs mixed in with some run plays. Playaction passing should be the heart of our offense, not bubble screens.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

They've actually over-achieved with Smith. This is the ceiling, the high water mark with that guy.

The ceiling was 2015.

That was by far Reid's best Chiefs team. They had the best running game (6th), the best defense (3rd in pts, 7th in yards), pretty good special teams, and Smith's scrambling was a huge asset.

Smith posted his highest YPC, highest YPA, highest QBR and the offense scored plenty of points to be considered SB caliber in combination with a top 5 defense.

You can probably argue that had the team not been absolutely wrecked by injuries - Houston, Maclin, Morse, Charles - they could have gone into Foxboro and beaten the Patriots, and beating the Broncos the next week was certainly a possibility.

Everything has gone downhill since that moment, except Tyreek Hill, who basically propped up a mediocre 2016 team that never had any realistic shot at a Super Bowl.

It's anyone's guess what happens next season, but fixing the QB, the running game, the middle of the OL, the run defense and re-signing guys like Poe and Berry seems to be a tall task, and a difficult schedule looms. They'll probably have a winning season, but this team's SB window is shut as long as Smith is the QB.

[New World Order]

Smith was absolute shit for 3 quarters after that first drive.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yup. That's probably accurate.

To whatever extent Alex Smith may have been capable of winning a Super Bowl at one time, he no longer is.

We saw him get more and more skittish this year in the pocket. His arm certainly won't be getting better and I see no reason to believe he's ever going to learn any more of the offense.

So we've seen a guy who understands this offense as well as he ever will getting shell-shocked and physically declining.

There's nowhere to go but down from here with Alex Smith. Time to move on.

I'm still convinced Smith's peak as a passing QB ( versus dual-threat QB) is still to come. He showed improvement in many categories this year. The decrease in TD numbers has more to do with Maclin being off his game.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Because Smith misses one big play everyone goes nuts. His receivers miss 5 important passes, nobody says a peep.

This is why Dorsey and Reid call the shots and make the millions, not a bunch of overweight unemployed/retired folk.

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

I'm still convinced Smith's peak as a passing QB ( versus dual-threat QB) is still to come. He showed improvement in many categories this year. The decrease in TD numbers has more to do with Maclin being off his game.

[KranzDictum]

Originally Posted by Black Bob

No shit. Why do we have to run plays that require a lot of setting up and time to develop? I mean those TE tosses seem really desperate.

Reids O is built like a basketball team O. It is designed to be a high percentage pass play (usually around the LOS) to get one guy wide open with space to move the ball.

All the motion and misdirection like on the TD to the FB is necessary. Everything needs to be set up by power runs which have been less and less productive or consistent.

In the passing game they cannot line up and throw it downfield with Smith, and with most QB's in the NFL for that matter so Reid figures that D's cannot cover everyone and someone is going to be wide open so his WR's tend to be Judas Goats downfield to open up the underneath for TE and RB's out of the flat or in the seam. That is why your leading pass catcher by Yards is Ware and used to be JC and the 2nd leading catcher is the TE because they give him easy catches in space with room to run.

Travis's stock falls downfield where he has to make big time catches in traffic while covered that is why I think he is overrated because his yards are dinks with YAC where he is not contacted until 20 yards downfield. Put at guy on him and make him make a big catch downfield on the run and he is just another dude and his play proves that.

I do enjoy some of Andy's innovations, he has a 2 TE set where he brings them into a Wing formation on either side and motions the RB down behind the strong side and you don't know if the TE's are going to block, leak out into routes or if the RB is going to run a screen, lots of options off that one play and they didn't run it once Sunday night, it is the perfect play against a rushing team like Denver because the rush LB's have to account for the route options rather than sell out and rush the QB.

The problem with not being a downfield passing O is that when you need to use it there are not enough game reps to execute it. Sure there are nights where anything will work, especially against teams who are hurt or not strong D's but you cannot count on that in the playoffs.

Steelers played everyone the right way, they kept everything in front of them, they accounted for Hill and attacked him behind the LOS rather than backing off. They knew the tendency's to run and they pressed on 3rd and shorts. The sad thing was this is your best OL for years and they didn't establish the run game and stay with it like Pitt was willing to.