Tesla unveil Semi, new Roadster, & also teased a "pickup truck"

[aturnis]

Anyone watch the unveil last night?



The numbers on the semi destroyed what anyone thought possible.

- 0-60 in 5 sec
- 0-60 in 20 sec under max gross payload of 80k lbs
- 65mph up 5% grade under max lied, compared to 45mph for ICE semi
- 500 mile range
- 400 miles of additional range after 30 min charge
- Guaranteed 7¢/kWh fuel cost(solar) compared to volatile oil
- Nuclear explosion proof glass(apparently cracked windshield takes semi off road)
- 1 million mile guarantee it won't breakdown
- Will never need a brake change
- "Impossible" to jacknife
- Beats semis on economics day 1
- In convoy mode, beats rail on economics

300 miles of range: $150,000
500 miles of range: $180,000
Founders series: $200,000




https://youtu.be/CBTQnmUolas
The Roadster was a complete surprise, and the numbers given destroy any production car you can think of, even a Koenisegg.

- 0-60 in 1.9 sec (this is faster than most Formula 1 cars)
- 0-100 in 4.2
- 1/4 mile in 8.9 sec
- 250+ mph top speed
- 621 mile range (That's Kansas City to Denver without fueling)
- 10,000 nm torque

and that's the base model. Starting at $200k and Founders series at $250k. Destroys million dollar cars.



Also teased a rendering image of a consumer pickup truck with a normal truck in the bed.

https://youtu.be/5n9xafjynJA

[Bewbies]

I actually think if Tesla makes it the next say 5 years, maybe 10, most of those other car manufacturers won’t exist anymore.

The day of the internal combustion engine, and the car we have to drive, are ending very soon.

Which sounds crazy, but if you’d told anyone about an iPhone in 1990 nobody would have believed it was possible.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Bewbies

I actually think if Tesla makes it the next say 5 years, maybe 10, most of those other car manufacturers won’t exist anymore.

The day of the internal combustion engine, and the car we have to drive, are ending very soon.

Which sounds crazy, but if you’d told anyone about an iPhone in 1990 nobody would have believed it was possible.

Eh, I could buy ICE cars being toast in the future (though I'd put it more like 15-20 years down the road rather than 5-10). I'd imagine most of those manufacturers will pivot to serve the e-car market, though, especially if the EU mandates electric cars by 2030 like they've talked about.

I guess to clarify on my above comment, I fully expect other manufacturers to release legit e-cars in the coming years. It's the "Telsa goes under because of it" narrative that I think is really hard to believe if you really pay attention to the nuts and bolts (or electrons and atoms more accurately) of all of this.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by Bewbies

I actually think if Tesla makes it the next say 5 years, maybe 10, most of those other car manufacturers won’t exist anymore.

The day of the internal combustion engine, and the car we have to drive, are ending very soon.

Which sounds crazy, but if you’d told anyone about an iPhone in 1990 nobody would have believed it was possible.

So you believe this hype about semis that go from 0-60 in 5 seconds and the like, and think they are going to bring something like that to market soon? And their hype about making a $200k production car that's faster than a formula one car?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

So you believe this hype about semis that go from 0-60 in 5 seconds and the like, and think they are going to bring something like that to market soon? And their hype about making a $200k production car that's faster than a formula one car?

If acceleration is where you get hung up, you clearly haven't been paying attention. It's relatively easy to make an electric car that can burn a gas car 0-60. The hard part if you're talking about racing is making one that can sustain 100+ mph speeds without overheating.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

So you believe this hype about semis that go from 0-60 in 5 seconds and the like, and think they are going to bring something like that to market soon? And their hype about making a $200k production car that's faster than a formula one car?

You know both of these things currently exist and are being tested/driven daily right?

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Eh, I could buy ICE cars being toast in the future (though I'd put it more like 15-20 years down the road rather than 5-10). I'd imagine most of those manufacturers will pivot to serve the e-car market, though, especially if the EU mandates electric cars by 2030 like they've talked about.

I guess to clarify on my above comment, I fully expect other manufacturers to release legit e-cars in the coming years. It's the "Telsa goes under because of it" narrative that I think is really hard to believe if you really pay attention to the nuts and bolts (or electrons and atoms more accurately) of all of this.

Electric is near, and it's going to be here fast. And it's going to decimate oil company profits. If the US doesn't invest in it, China and Europe will (and have). Private passenger will take a while. But public transportation and commercial use will use a lot more electric and a lot more driverless (which needs to run on electric). The big game changer, though, is Uber/Lyft. They've tipped the scales. As the tech increases adoption, you'll see more charging stations and a competitor arms race to build a better mouse trap.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Na, I frankly think you're completely off on all of that. I think part of the issue with the way people evaluate Tesla is that they say "Well, Toyota can crank out XXX number of cars without a problem. Why is it so hard for Tesla?" That completely ignores the fact that electric car technology is still in its infancy and that building them is still really, really hard compared to a gas car.

If nothing else, all of those other companies are probably 10+ years behind Tesla in battery production capabilities. Telsa itself (in partnership with Panasonic) is currently producing about as many Li-ion batteries as the entire rest of the world combined (including phones, laptops, etc.), and they're already planning for at least 2-3 more in the coming years. None of the companies you listed have anywhere near that level of capability, and it costs a **** ton of money to build them (even in big car company terms).

And even ignoring all that...some might recall that Tesla gave away all of its patents on battery technology years ago. Why? Because Elon doesn't give a shit about "winning." He just wants more electric cars on the road no matter who makes them.

It should be easier. There are far fewer components and moving pieces to electric. Is it the batteries they struggle with?

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Electric is near, and it's going to be here fast. And it's going to decimate oil company profits. If the US doesn't invest in it, China and Europe will (and have). Private passenger will take a while. But public transportation and commercial use will use a lot more electric and a lot more driverless (which needs to run on electric). The big game changer, though, is Uber/Lyft. They've tipped the scales. As the tech increases adoption, you'll see more charging stations and a competitor arms race to build a better mouse trap.

Calm down there turbo. I think adoption will be slower than you are thinking. The thing about commercial adaptation is it generates revenue so there can't be downtime. Like at all. You can be as cheap as you want, but if there is downtime, it kills any margin you gain through electric. Not a great place for beta testing.

Maybe Uber/Lyft, will work, but if you want to tip the scales on fossil fuel consumption, it needs to be in trucks and trucks can't break down. They just ****ing can't.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

It should be easier. There are far fewer components and moving pieces to electric. Is it the batteries they struggle with?

It's the main one at least, at least as far as I understand it.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

It should be easier. There are far fewer components and moving pieces to electric. Is it the batteries they struggle with?

If you're going to build an electric car "right", it cannot be a normal car merely converted to run on electricity. Your main powertrain components need to be in/on the skate as compact as possible, like an iphone. Sure, it's less parts, but if done right, it's loads of complexity. For example, after you've produced the 7,104 battery cells for 100kWh pack, you need to make 14,208 welds just to connect the batteries, and the pack STILL isn't finished.

Of course you could do like all the other OEMs who are feverishly trying to play catchup, and use lightweight prismatic cells. Problem with that is, while they make production/range/cooling/etc easier, they result in a shit product.(that expensive battery pack that'll need replaced after 10 years you always heard about). This will result in lemons that will kill consumer confidence in existing OEMs.

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Calm down there turbo. I think adoption will be slower than you are thinking. The thing about commercial adaptation is it generates revenue so there can't be downtime. Like at all. You can be as cheap as you want, but if there is downtime, it kills any margin you gain through electric. Not a great place for beta testing.

Electrification will happen quickly. Every OEM has committed to electrifying save Toyota. Fiat was holding out like a bratty child refusing to eat broccoli, but have now started they have their eyes set on Tesla. They had better too, b/c Tesla is eating everyone's lunch in the auto categories they compete in.

On top of that, multiple countries have set drop dead dates for internal combustion engine sales. China is full throttle in on electric and India's not far behind. If you're out of those markets, you may as well consider yourself a boutique auto manufacturer.

As for adaptation, that's for the existing OEMs to worry about. Tesla is fine, China has 487 electric car manufactures and the field is racing to the finish to play catchup.

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Uber/Lyft, will work, but if you want to tip the scales on fossil fuel consumption, it needs to be in trucks and trucks can't break down. They just ****ing can't.

Not sure the point about "trucks can't break down". Electric should pretty much always be more reliable than combustion. Cars and trucks today have become Rube Goldberg machines. Very few run at engineered efficiency. All that complexity creates too many points of failure.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by vailpass

One is a start-up struggling to stay alive who can't exist without subsidies, has massive production shortfalls, does not currently offer a single product that is price pointed for 95% of the market and whose stock value just got downgraded to 'buy'.

The other is BMW.

But other than that.

I think you're ignoring the fact that traditional OEMs spend over $50 billion per year in advertising and Tesla spends $0. Their growth has been organic to this point. I'm still shocked at how many people I come across who've never heard of them, or have, but don't know s thing about them. Tesla has a supply problem, not a demand problem. 7,000 orders last week. That's 100% of current known production capacity.

Also, Teslas products have great margins. MUCH better than industry average. They just invest >100% back into the company. The Silicon Valley model may not be for other OEMs, then again, they have fully deployed manufacturing capacity and haven't really done much innovating since electronic fuel injection.

I'll never understand the "Tesla will die" argument.

First, the tax incentives are icing, obviously not necessary given their customer bases willingness to shell out huge sums of cash for the cars. Other OEMs might have that problem as they don't offer much else beyond transportation, but Teslas will become a value proposition. 20 years ago nobody thought they'd ever spend $600-800 on a phone, or $2,000 on a TV, but here we are.

Mostly though, it's that the private investors who have already committed billions aren't going to let Tesla sink with nearly $25 billion in reservations sitting on the table. Not to mention that Tesla hasn't even begun to leverage all of its assets at this point.

Tesla also has a lower debt to equity ratio than the industry average. Ford on the other hand is nearly double average.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

It should be easier. There are far fewer components and moving pieces to electric. Is it the batteries they struggle with?



Calm down there turbo. I think adoption will be slower than you are thinking. The thing about commercial adaptation is it generates revenue so there can't be downtime. Like at all. You can be as cheap as you want, but if there is downtime, it kills any margin you gain through electric. Not a great place for beta testing.

Maybe Uber/Lyft, will work, but if you want to tip the scales on fossil fuel consumption, it needs to be in trucks and trucks can't break down. They just ****ing can't.

I don't think adoption will happen even close to overnight. My point is that even big auto and big oil, who've blocked the tech for years, have resigned themselves to the fact that this is inevitable.

Fastest adoption will be public sector. They want EVs and driverless on the roads yesterday. EVs will save a shitload on public transit gas costs and driverless may take a while for actual public transit, but will be huge for "last mile" type transit. Commercially, I agree... transport will take a while especially considering unions, but there are a ton of commercial operations where a driverless off-road vehicle would have huge value with minimal risk. But Uber/Lyft are really what tipped the scales. Big Auto is working with them, not against them. They're extremely motivated to get EVs and eventually driverless on the roads for practical business reasons.

The reason Uber/Lyft and public transit is important isn't mass adoption. It's that it motivates scalability. EVs' biggest obstacle by a mile today is scale. Scale means more charging stations, an innovation arms race, and investors taking bigger and bolder risks. More importantly, scale will ultimately create more charging stations and cheaper prices, which will be huge for adoption.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by aturnis

I think you're ignoring the fact that traditional OEMs spend over $50 billion per year in advertising and Tesla spends $0. Their growth has been organic to this point. I'm still shocked at how many people I come across who've never heard of them, or have, but don't know s thing about them. Tesla has a supply problem, not a demand problem. 7,000 orders last week. That's 100% of current known production capacity.

Also, Teslas products have great margins. MUCH better than industry average. They just invest >100% back into the company. The Silicon Valley model may not be for other OEMs, then again, they have fully deployed manufacturing capacity and haven't really done much innovating since electronic fuel injection.

I'll never understand the "Tesla will die" argument.

First, the tax incentives are icing, obviously not necessary given their customer bases willingness to shell out huge sums of cash for the cars. Other OEMs might have that problem as they don't offer much else beyond transportation, but Teslas will become a value proposition. 20 years ago nobody thought they'd ever spend $600-800 on a phone, or $2,000 on a TV, but here we are.

Mostly though, it's that the private investors who have already committed billions aren't going to let Tesla sink with nearly $25 billion in reservations sitting on the table. Not to mention that Tesla hasn't even begun to leverage all of its assets at this point.

Tesla also has a lower debt to equity ratio than the industry average. Ford on the other hand is nearly double average.

The only thing I could see sinking Tesla is Elon Musk. Not for the tech, but because his business savvy can be a bit of a wild card. But the idea that tax incentives juiced the market is just crazy. Musk had to do it with not just daggers, but knives being thrown directly into his back and he did it entirely on his own. That's not the case now. Now the patents are all open sourced, his key partners are now working with him vs. against him, and you have lots of investors really interested in scaling this. Not because of "social responsibility" but because they see value in making the technology work.

[Bewbies]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

So you believe this hype about semis that go from 0-60 in 5 seconds and the like, and think they are going to bring something like that to market soon? And their hype about making a $200k production car that's faster than a formula one car?

That new Roadster is going to be THE car kids dream about when it comes out. The present day version of the muscle cars of the kids of the 60's, the Countach & Testarossa of kids my age, McClaren's etc.

Only that car today will be electric. That's going to create a huge mental shift in future generations.

Change like this is always slowly, then suddenly. One day everyone is making fun of the new thing, and the next day it seems they're gone.

Look at how Blackberry treated the iPhone...

[Bewbies]

Also, there are only 2 car brands I've ever had the experience of every single person that owns one loves them. You never hear people say they were happy when they sold them.

Porsche. And Tesla.

People underestimate that, or try to dismiss it as being sheep. At least with Tesla, nobody really thinks of sheep when you think of a Porsche owner.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Bewbies

Also, there are only 2 car brands I've ever had the experience of every single person that owns one loves them. You never hear people say they were happy when they sold them.

Porsche. And Tesla.

People underestimate that, or try to dismiss it as being sheep. At least with Tesla, nobody really thinks of sheep when you think of a Porsche owner.

If you don't view Tesla (or at least e-cars generally) as the cars of the future, you haven't ridden in one. To quote a guy from the WSJ yesterday:

“If you were hoping Tesla would fail on account of the Model 3 I’ve got bad news: This thing is magnificent”
"The Model 3 is more than futuristic. It's optimistic. This is what ordinary cars should be, which is to say, better than they are.
"This thing is magnificent, a little rainbow-farting space ship..."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-e...vel-1532022533