Mock (1/11)

[Direckshun]

Assumptions:

1. Chiefs outlast the Steelers 32-28 in the divisional round. But the Chiefs go to Foxborough and lose handily to the Patriots. GM John Dorsey leaves to become GM of the Green Bay Packers, because we are the Chiefs. Chris Ballard becomes the new GM. HC Andy Reid and QB Alex Smith are retained.

2. ILB Derrick Johnson does not retire, and will return like Justin Houston did this season.

3. RB Jamaal Charles renegotiates a contract down to 2 years, $4m; P Dustin Colquitt renegotiates his contract down to 2 years, $5m.

4. S Eric Berry is re-signed for 4 years, $44m ($19m guaranteed).

5. The Chiefs sign the following players at minimal deals: DE Kendall Reyes

6. The Chiefs tender the following players: WR Albert Wilson, S Daniel Sorensen, K Cairo Santos, LS James Winchester.

7. The following players walk in free agency: QB Nick Foles, RB Knile Davis, FB Trey Millard, OG Mike Person, NT Dontari Poe, DE Jarvis Jenkins

8. The following players are cut: TE Ross Travis, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Kenneth Acker

9. The Chiefs bring in 4 compensatory picks: a 3rd (Sean Smith), a 5th (Chase Daniel), and two 6ths (Donald Stephenson & Tyvon Branch).

On with the show:

1.30. QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson

I've seen grades for Watson all over the place, but here is the one I find most ingriguing:

Deshaun Watson just beat Alabama in the national championship. in the weeks prior to the game, Walt and I surveyed teams around the league to see where their initial draft grades were for Watson. Two playoff teams told me they had third-round grades on Watson. One said it was on the low end as a third- to fourth-rounder. A high-ranking personnel man on a playoff team told Walt that they had a third-round grade on Watson. Two other teams said they had second-round grades on Watson. Another team thought that Watson still could be a late first-round quarterback, similar to Teddy Bridgewater, because of the dire need at the position across the NFL.

The Chiefs, as it stands, have a pretty packed roster. They have the QB they need, a RB stable they like, receivers they like, an OL roster that is completely returning, a stout DL even without Poe, good passrushers and linebackers, and with the emergence of Terrance Mitchell, a close-to-complete secondary.

The Chiefs will still operate by the Dorsey/Ballard method of drafting to replace future FAs, but you don't get any smarter or safer of a gamble by taking Deshaun Watson, a QB with a ton of tools and intangibles and a good fit for Andy Reid/Brad Childress's offense. Watson has franchise QB upside, and the Chiefs know the spread offense as well as anyone, and can provide the best bridge to the pros for Watson should they take him.

Alex Smith remains the starter, and probably plays out his contract. At which point, by 2019 (if not sooner), the Chiefs will have a two-year-seasoned QB in the wings with elite intangibles and lots of tools to potentially take this team to the next level.

2.61. NT Lowell Lotulelei, Utah

The Chiefs have lost Poe in this hypothetical, in part because he's too pricey, and also in part because they need to plug in Chris Jones as a starter in 2017 and the best way to do that is by moving Jaye Howard to the NT. Howard has played well at NT in spot duty, but he is a free agent after the 2017 season. The Chiefs like T.J. Barnes in spot duty, but he probably isn't an NFL starter. Lotulelei almost certainly is, however. He's not as dominant as Star, but he's a guy who should clog up the gut of the OL.

3.92. RB Alvin Kamara, Tennessee

Not a power back, who I've been in the custom of taking in the off chance we lose Ware for a game or two. Neither Jamaal or Charcandrick are smashmouth RBs, but I'm going to say that Dorsey/Ballard will opt for the perfect fit for Andy Reid's offense in Kamara than he will try to shoehorn in a bigger-bodied back into the Chiefs offense. Kamara is a ton of fun to watch, and could dart up draft boards after the Combine.

3.98 (compensatory). CB Howard Wilson, Houston

A long, rangey CB who can redshirt for a year like Steven Nelson did. With Mitchell, the Chiefs are currently four-deep at CB -- five deep if you count DJ White (which I don't). Wilson has NFL starter upside.

4.128. OLB Tarell Basham, Ohio

A physically gifted athlete who has some passrushing chops at the FBS level, with physical tools that can translate to the next level. With Tamba still in the fold in this hypothetical, the Chiefs have three really good OLBs ahead of Basham, allowing him a good season or two to groom and develop.

5.167. ILB Marquel Lee, Wake Forest

5.173 (compensatory). WR Chad Hansen, California

6.204 (compensatory). TE Hayden Plinke, Texas-El Paso

6.210 (compensatory). OT/G J.J. Dielman, Utah

7.251. QB Sefo Liufau, Colorado

Physical specimen who will need significant time to work on the mental aspect on the game, a la Tyler Bray.

[Direckshun]

QB: Smith, Watson, Bray vs. Liufau
RB: Ware, Charles, Kamara, West
FB: Sherman

WR: Maclin, Hill, Conley, Wilson, Thomas, Hansen
TE: Kelce, Harris, O'Shaughnessy, Plinke

LT: Fisher, Schwartz
LG: Ehinger, Fulton
C: Morse, Fulton
RG: Duvarney-Tardif, Dielman
RT: Schwartz, Reid, Witzmann

DE: Jones, Reyes
NT: Howard, Lotulelei, Barnes
DE: Bailey, Nunez-Roches

OLB: Ford, Hali
ILB: Mauga, March
ILB: Wilson, Lee, Johnson (PUP)
OLB: Houston, Basham

CB: Peters, Mitchell, Nelson, Gaines, Wilson, White
S: Berry, Parker, Sorensen, Murray

K: Santos
P: Colquitt
LS: Winchester

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

7.251. QB Sefo Liufau, Colorado

Physical specimen who will need significant time to work on the mental aspect on the game, a la Tyler Bray.

He's made of glass.

[Dunerdr]

Two qbs? Made sense when Washington was against the wall but that would push out everyone but smith now and leave us with now system experienced back up unless they can stash one on ir.

[Titty Meat]

You do this every year man all the guys in the draft are never #1 on the depth chart!

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by BigMeatballBillay

You do this every year man all the guys in the draft are never #1 on the depth chart!

Well, the team is really good right now.

I've been doing this since 2007 on ChiefsPlanet. Back in those days, as much as five guys I'd draft would end up as hypothetical starters.

[DaneMcCloud]

Watson at #30?

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Well, the team is really good right now.

I've been doing this since 2007 on ChiefsPlanet. Back in those days, as much as five guys I'd draft would end up as hypothetical starters.

Put a ILB as starter and I'll and agree with everything you say

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Watson at #30?

More likely than Kamara at 92.

I don't think he sees the end of round 2 after the combine results allow him to show off his explosiveness. Dude's going to be electric as a pass-catcher out of the backfield from day 1 and will eventually be a solid 200-225 carry back as well, IMO.

[dj56dt58]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Watson at #30?

Other mocks show him going late 1st as well

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by dj56dt58

Other mocks show him going late 1st as well

That's not going to happen.

He'll go Top 5 because he's a QB and there are QB needy teams like the Browns, Jets, 49ers, Bills, etc.

Trubisky started only 1 year in college, which will scare off a lot of teams. While I think that Watson needs to sit for at least a full season, if not 24 games, he won big in college and there will be a team or two that falls in love with him.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

That's not going to happen.

He'll go Top 5 because he's a QB and there are QB needy teams like the Browns, Jets, 49ers, Bills, etc.

Trubisky started only 1 year in college, which will scare off a lot of teams. While I think that Watson needs to sit for at least a full season, if not 24 games, he won big in college and there will be a team or two that falls in love with him.

I would still be stunned if he goes in the top 15. QB needy or not, most of these teams aren't run by idiots anymore. Even a QB needy team would have to have a 1-2 year answer in place right this very second to bridge a gap to Watson.

Watson's a perfect late 1st prospect in that a team that has a fringe/average QB can make due with that guy until Watson's ready. Honestly, he'd seem to be a nice fit for the Texans. The Texans are stuck with Osweiler for another year anyway due to his contract so they could draft Watson, sit him behind Osweiler and when Osweiler is cutable again, they can turn over the keys.

[DJ's left nut]

So what do we think the trade-up cost would be to get to, say, 8th overall?

2017: 1st, 2nd
2018: 1st, 3rd

Think that gets it done? Seems like it would be in the ballpark. And Carolina's a team with a young QB and a fair number of smaller issues but nothing seemingly catastrophic; they may be willing to move down further than most teams.

If you're willing to be extremely aggressive, that seems to be the money spot, does it not? If Kizer or Trubisky fell out of the top 5 and you felt like one of them were your guy, that's probably where you have to get. Jumps you ahead of the Bills and the Browns 2nd pick (a natural spot for their QB selection).

Otherwise you're going to have to give up a 1st and 2nd to move up around Baltimore's spot and grab Mahomes and frankly, that's a roll of the dice as I could see him easily not making it to 16.

My early WAG as to quarterback selections without trades:

49ers (2): Trubisky
Jets: (6): Kizer
Browns (12): Mahomes
Texans (25): Watson

I think trades shake this up a fair amount but you can't predict 'em so this is my best guess based on a stock draft order.

If Mahomes slid into the teens, I'd be working the phones pretty hard to get up there for him.