Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Like I said - look at what their comparables have gone for and tell me I'm that far off.

If you think Reyes/Grichuk would be too much for even one of those guys, let alone both of them, I have some really bad news for you.

You're simply way off on what the market is for arms right now. That's why the Cardinals would be wise to stay the hell out of it.

Go sign Tommy Hunter and Brian Shaw. Tell them that they can compete for the 9th and see where the chips fall. If neither of them do it, throw Lyons out there; he's not idea but he'd convert 80-85%, IMO. They don't need to pay for games that Colome saved for the Rays. That has very little to do with what he'll do for the Cardinals.

I was not disputing what you said is market value. I'm sure your spot on. I just think it's stupid to gut our system for pitchers. We have good pitchers, why trade them for pitching?

My thoughts are we can again compete in 2019. Reyes will be ready for a full load as a starter. Flaherty, Hudson, alcantra and Weaver will all be further along and ready to help at the MLB level. If starting pitching is so valuable, why sell low now. Let your assets mature then sell.

We need to spend some of the new cable money and buy some bats. Moose or Hosmer this year. 2018 off season pay Marchado $300 million. We need a banger at 3B and defense. We have the damn money, spend it on the real deal.

Is it possible to make a prospective mid season trade with Baltimore and then approach Marchado with a $300 million long term deal? Is that allowed under the MLB rules?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I was not disputing what you said is market value. I'm sure your spot on. I just think it's stupid to gut our system for pitchers. We have good pitchers, why trade them for pitching?

My thoughts are we can again compete in 2019. Reyes will be ready for a full load as a starter. Flaherty, Hudson, alcantra and Weaver will all be further along and ready to help at the MLB level. If starting pitching is so valuable, why sell low now. Let your assets mature then sell.

We need to spend some of the new cable money and buy some bats. Moose or Hosmer this year. 2018 off season pay Marchado $300 million. We need a banger at 3B and defense. We have the damn money, spend it on the real deal.

I would argue that the Cardinals pitching is pretty anemic.

You have Martinez who is a solid pitcher. In years past I would have called him an ace but if last year becomes more of the norm then I would drop him to a #2.

Wainwright is done.

Wacha would probably slot in as the 4 with Mikolas the #5, but who the **** knows what you are going to get with Mikolas now that hes back in the majors. He had good years in Japan but Japan is not MLB and he wasn't good at all during his previous time in the majors.

The rest of your rotation is filled with question marks. Weaver and Flaherty may turn out to be good pitchers but what they have to shown so far in the majors isnt inspiring of anything great, maybe a couple of passable mid rotation arms.

Reyes was suppose to be the future headliner of the rotation but even before he blew out his arm he couldn't help but walk nearly 5 batters per 9. He's going to spend at least a year trying to get back to where he was and who knows if he's ever able to make it out of the bullpen and be an effective starter. By then you've already used up 2 years of service time until you are ready to see if he can be that ace.

Thats why teams make trades for known commodities. You are trading question marks for certainty.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I would argue that the Cardinals pitching is pretty anemic.

You have Martinez who is a solid pitcher. In years past I would have called him an ace but if last year becomes more of the norm then I would drop him to a #2.

Wainwright is done.

Wacha would probably slot in as the 4 with Mikolas the #5, but who the **** knows what you are going to get with Mikolas now that hes back in the majors. He had good years in Japan but Japan is not MLB and he wasn't good at all during his previous time in the majors.

The rest of your rotation is filled with question marks. Weaver and Flaherty may turn out to be good pitchers but what they have to show so far in the majors is inspiring of anything great.

Reyes was suppose to be the future headliner of the rotation but even before he blew out his arm he couldn't help but walk nearly 5 batter per 9. He's going to spend at least a year trying to get back to where he was and who knows if he's ever able to make it out of the bullpen and be an effective starter. By then you've already used up 2 years of service time until you are ready to see if he can be that ace.

Thats why teams make trades for known commodities. You are trading question marks for certainty.

I agree with your assessment of our current staff. Disagree with your assessment of our future pitching talent. The difference here is that I don't care about 2018. Let the staff suck and or learn. Archer and Colume don't make us legitmate playoff winners, maybe contenders.

We Will probably suck this year. Works for me to save our talent to compete in 2019.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Herrera lost his job and is very possibly damaged goods who's approaching his FA year. And honestly, I don't trust any part of that 3-headed monster that Yost assembled. He spent 4 years absolutely flogging those guys and it's no surprise that Holland got injured, Davis appears to be held together with duct tape and Herrera mysteriously lost effectiveness last year. I don't judge Yost for it at all - he did what he had to do and won 2 pennants and a WS - you make that deal every single time. But that doesn't mean I have to have any faith in his discards. Beyond that, I'm still not convinced Herrera didn't quit on you guys late in the year.



Scott Alexander is a JAG. And I don't say that to diminish the guy - JAGS are fine, most bullpens have several of them. But the Cardinals have several of those guys as well and frankly, Matheny won't use them.



So what the hell use do we have for another one? Alexander is John Brebbia. He might be a little better. He might be a little worse. He's almost certainly not enough outside of those margins either way to matter.

He's what Matt Bowman was for 4 months before Matheny finally finished the job in August (lord, what Matheny did to that poor guy was borderline criminal).



If your system doesn't have 5 Scott Alexanders in it and you've dedicated the kind of organizational capital to pitching that the Cardinals have, there's really no sense in keeping anyone around.

Not pitching it as the key deal, just something that would be a better option, IMO, that Colome.

I disagree with the JAG take on Alexander. He led the majors in groundball rate (at 74 percent) and posted the same K/9, basically, as Colome.

He's a lefty who sits 93-94 with a power sinker that induces groundballs at a tremendous rate.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Not pitching it as the key deal, just something that would be a better option, IMO, that Colome.

I disagree with the JAG take on Alexander. He led the majors in groundball rate (at 74 percent) and posted the same K/9, basically, as Colome.

He's a lefty who sits 93-94 with a power sinker that induces groundballs at a tremendous rate.

He's a late arriving relief pitcher who puts on a lot of baserunners and had a middling minor league career as well despite being pretty much exclusively a relief pitcher his entire minor league career. You know the track record on guys with that career arc. You might get a couple of solid seasons but the margin for error is just razor thin and it doesn't take much for them to lose effectiveness completely.

I'd give up Grichuk for him. Maybe. But only if I couldn't get him moved as part of a deal for Givens first. He's gonna be like Seth Maness and if the league adjusts to him even a little bit, he simply won't have a plan B to fall back on. He's a 1-pitch pitcher who doesn't command that one pitch particularly well.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He's a late arriving relief pitcher who puts on a lot of baserunners and had a middling minor league career as well despite being pretty much exclusively a relief pitcher his entire minor league career. You know the track record on guys with that career arc. You might get a couple of solid seasons but the margin for error is just razor thin and it doesn't take much for them to lose effectiveness completely.

I'd give up Grichuk for him. Maybe. But only if I couldn't get him moved as part of a deal for Givens first. He's gonna be like Seth Maness and if the league adjusts to him even a little bit, he simply won't have a plan B to fall back on. He's a 1-pitch pitcher who doesn't command that one pitch particularly well.

I'd be right with you if I wasn't aware of a few extenuating circumstances.

First, he was diagnosed with diabetes in 2016 and got that in order. This allowed him to add and hold velocity.

He also adjusted his approach - to throw the sinker more, almost exclusively.

The pitch is not just a good sinker. It's a really great one. He isn't Zach Britton, but the pitch is good enough to stand on its own as a weapon.

Here's a good read on it from Royals Review:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.roy...xanders-sinker

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I agree with your assessment of our current staff. Disagree with your assessment of our future pitching talent. The difference here is that I don't care about 2018. Let the staff suck and or learn. Archer and Colume don't make us legitmate playoff winners, maybe contenders.

We Will probably suck this year. Works for me to save our talent to compete in 2019.

You have to take into account that Archer would still be around through 2021 and for dirt cheap. The team would still be competitive in 2019 with Archer. They may be competitive without him. They may also still suck ass without him and be left holding their dicks. That's the gamble you make with prospects.

Archer may not have the numbers to put him in the conversation with Kershaw, Bumgarner, and Sale, but I have no issue with calling him a top 20 pitcher in MLB.

I'm not saying the Cardinals should or shouldn't go after Archer, but there's a reason why guys of similar talent and financial saving cost so damn much.

[jd1020]

The market for @Marlins Marcell Ozuna is starting to build. I'm hearing 6-8 clubs have some level of interest in the All-Star outfielder. The #Nationals #STLCards and #SFGiants are among teams interested.

— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) December 11, 2017

Well... have fun with that bidding war.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Herrera lost his job and is very possibly damaged goods who's approaching his FA year. And honestly, I don't trust any part of that 3-headed monster that Yost assembled. He spent 4 years absolutely flogging those guys and it's no surprise that Holland got injured, Davis appears to be held together with duct tape and Herrera mysteriously lost effectiveness last year. I don't judge Yost for it at all - he did what he had to do and won 2 pennants and a WS - you make that deal every single time. But that doesn't mean I have to have any faith in his discards. Beyond that, I'm still not convinced Herrera didn't quit on you guys late in the year.

Scott Alexander is a JAG. And I don't say that to diminish the guy - JAGS are fine, most bullpens have several of them. But the Cardinals have several of those guys as well and frankly, Matheny won't use them.

So what the hell use do we have for another one? Alexander is John Brebbia. He might be a little better. He might be a little worse. He's almost certainly not enough outside of those margins either way to matter.
He's what Matt Bowman was for 4 months before Matheny finally finished the job in August (lord, what Matheny did to that poor guy was borderline criminal).

If your system doesn't have 5 Scott Alexanders in it and you've dedicated the kind of organizational capital to pitching that the Cardinals have, there's really no sense in keeping anyone around.

Wades Davis was fine all year, health wise

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Wades Davis was fine all year, health wise

If you watched Wade Davis last year I would be a little weary.

There were times where he couldn't hit the strike zone if his life depended on it and if it wasn't for blind luck of having a 110 MPH line drive find a glove or coming in with a 3 run lead to give up 2 runs he would have blown quite a bit of saves.

He only pitched 58.2 innings and you could clearly tell he was running on fumes in the 2nd half. His SO/W ratio was damn near 1 for the months of July and August and 5 of the 6 HR's he gave up came in August/Sept.

I'm not completely thrilled with the Morrow signing but I'm relieved in the fact that giving him $21M in guaranteed money for 2 years all but eliminates them from signing Davis to $60-70M for 4-5 years. Wade has had 2 years in a row of solid regression.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Wades Davis was fine all year, health wise

Maddon babied him a bit most of the year hoping to keep him intact through October.

Yeah, he stayed on the active roster all year but the rumblings all season were that he was never quite 100% and Maddon was working some minor miracles to keep him healthy.

I know the guy I saw pitch this year walked a tightrope a hell of a lot more often than the peak version of him in KC. His effectiveness has waned a bit.

EDIT: It appears JD already covered this.

[O.city]

Apparently the orioles are open to moving Machado

Wonder what we’d have to send them to come in 2nd in that race

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

Apparently the orioles are open to moving Machado

Wonder what we’d have to send them to come in 2nd in that race

we weren't even a choice in Stantons mind. This specific trade failure is not on the Cardinals FO.

I asked this before. Can we agree to terms with the Orioles and then talk to Marchado about a long term deal? If we can't get a long term deal worked out, no trade?

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

we weren't even a choice in Stantons mind. This specific trade failure is not on the Cardinals FO.

I asked this before. Can we agree to terms with the Orioles and then talk to Marchado about a long term deal? If we can't get a long term deal worked out, no trade?

The better option would be for the O's to do a sign then trade. The team control would raise his value to suitors.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

we weren't even a choice in Stantons mind. This specific trade failure is not on the Cardinals FO.

I asked this before. Can we agree to terms with the Orioles and then talk to Marchado about a long term deal? If we can't get a long term deal worked out, no trade?

That's not entirely accurate; did you read/listen to his presser at all?

“They talked a lot about the history of the franchise, and the culture, which is important to him,” said Stanton’s agent and former Cardinals farmhand Joel Wolfe.

“I wanted him to hear that,” Wolfe said. “And he got it. It resonated with him. A lot.”

Stanton applauded the Cardinals’ recruitment and spoke sincerely about the team he got to see up close and personal every spring training at Roger Dean Stadium. Yet beneath the wrapping of compliments came this subtle criticism, issued so innocently Stanton didn’t even seem to notice the insult.

“They’re historic franchises, so I knew that they would figure out how have a great product on the field within a few years,” Stanton said, referring to the Cardinals and Giants. “But I wanted to be ready this year.”

We were close. Real close. But in the end this is the ultimate culmination of 5 years of failure by John Mozeliak. His inability to strengthen this roster ANYWHERE over the last half decade and his unwillingness to move on from a clearly overmatched manager has cost us a generational talent because he didn't believe in the immediate, short term future of the franchise.

Yes, that's a very clear indictment of this front office. Sure, they tried hard, but they failed because of a hole they dug.

If Joe Maddon is a Cardinal right now, so is Giancarlo Stanton. If they'd have made a move on Andrelton Simmons instead of banking on Jhonny Peralta to bounce back, who knows where we stand. If they wouldn't have pussed out on the Moncada sweepstakes so they could keep their powder dry for an incredibly underwhelming 2016 international haul, maybe they get him moved for Sale and things are entirely different. Maybe if they target Freeman instead of Heyward in the Shelby Miller deal. Maybe if they're more aggressive in 2015 and instead of getting Moss to do nothing in the post-season they get Cespedes and he helps them knock off the Cubs and changes the entire narrative around the NL Central.

John Mozeliak has done a poor job running this team for 4-5 years now and it's biting him. There are 100 different things he could've done over the last several years to put this team in a better situation but by and large he's done precisely dick. And the team is feeling the results of that.

And yes, the Cardinals could ask for a negotiating window with Machado and insist that any trade is contingent on an agreed contract extension. They may well get the window - I don't think they'll get the extension unless it has an immediate opt-out. Probably in 2020 so he can get involved in a more barren FA market and get a contract that takes him deeper into his decline years.