The Future of Eric Fisher

[kccrow]

Let's discuss Eric Fisher. I'm going to give my thoughts, which are long-winded and detailed from a contractual perspective.

Coming to an agreement on an extension for Eric Fisher should be of great importance to the Chiefs this offseason. Fisher is in the final year of his rookie contract, but being a first round pick he could be optioned for a fifth year. Consideration of the option year is where the Chiefs need to be diligent. This year's transition tag value for offensive lineman will be the option year salary for Eric Fisher should the Chiefs decided to exercise it since Fisher was a top 10 selection. Based on salary data available from OverTheCap.com, the transition tag value is set to be around $10,764,053. Obviously, that figure will not be perfectly accurate but it will be a very near approximation. Nearly $10.8 million for Eric Fisher in 2017 is an unacceptable figure based on his level of play so far in his career. That salary would place Fisher, as it stands now, 9th overall in salary for offensive lineman in 2017. Not only does the transition tag figure not fit Fisher's current level of production, but it also will significantly impact the salary cap.

I do not argue that Fisher has been quietly ascending as a player, but he has performed far below his lofty draft status of first overall and certainly would not be a top 10 offensive lineman at this juncture. It makes sense on multiple fronts for the Chiefs to extend Fisher to, hopefully, reduce his 2016 cap hit ($7.06 million) and his cap hits in future years.

When it comes to Fisher, I think you have to start looking at the Will Beatty and Joe Staley type of contracts in the $7.5 million average per year range and work off of that. Even though I don't think Fisher deserves that type of salary and would argue for a Michael Oher-like low APY, I do realize this is a league where salaries are going to continue to increase. At this point, I can't fathom Fisher as anymore than a middle of the league left tackle, and a $7.5 million APY would certainly reflect that going forward. A large portion of Fisher's contract should be incentive laden without a ton of guaranteed money but we'll have to see how KC handles that.

What would I offer Eric Fisher? Let's start by converting his currently guaranteed roster bonus of $2,755,977 to a signing bonus and giving him an additional $5 million added to that, for a total signing bonus of $7,755,977. Also, give him an option bonus in 2017 of $10 million that is fully guaranteed at signing. This will allow the Chiefs to spread what is effectively a $17,755,977 signing bonus out over 6 years instead of 5. Leave his current $675,000 salary for 2016 in tact and fully guaranteed, bringing him to $18.43 million in guaranteed money. Fisher gains $15 million in new, guaranteed money for the extension, while the Chiefs receive the ability to prorate over a longer period of time. Give Fisher $250,000 workout bonuses in all 6 years of the deal. Add in $500,000 in roster bonuses as injury and performance incentives in 2017 through 2020. Add a $2,000,000 roster bonus in 2021. Give him salaries of $3.0, 3.75, 4.0, 4.75, and 6.0 million in 2017 through 2021. The new contract for the entire 6 years becomes a $49,060,612 deal with $18,430,977 fully guaranteed for an APY of $8,176,769 and 37.6% guaranteed. Annual cap hits would be approximately $6.1, 7.3, 8.0, 8.3, 9.0, and 10.3 million. The extension adds $42 million in new money to the deal, which provides $7.0 APY over the 5 new years with 36% guaranteed. Oh, and the Chiefs would free up nearly $955,000 in 2016 using this format.

Obviously old money escalates the deal slightly above my target, but I'd feel pretty good about the new money and his cap hits would be middle of the road going forward for left tackles. This is a contract that isn't that Chiefs' friendly in terms of being able to cut Fisher before 2020, but I think he's shown considerable growth and you're banking on that continuing. The only question is, how do Eric Fisher and his agent view Eric Fisher at this point? If they view his value over and above this, I think the Chiefs would be wise to not elect to use the option and see if Fisher grows in 2016. Even if Fisher turns into the best tackle in the NFL (doubtful at best) that warrants a Trent Williams deal, the Chiefs wouldn't be losing in 2017.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by milkman

You're both right.

Fisher has only had one good year, but he needs to be locked down now.

I agree, but you can't force him to sign. If he's smart, he'll do what Houston did and take a gamble on himself. Especially after the way he handled Watt.

[beach tribe]

I'm on the "do it now" wagon.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

True

If we lock him down now and he stops getting better or regresses? Then we have another Bowe situation.


All about the calculated risk.

Fisher is hitting his prime.

Bowe was past it.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

I agree, but you can't force him to sign. If he's smart, he'll do what Houston did and take a gamble on himself. Especially after the way he handled Watt.

Personally, I don't think that's "smart".

He's entering his fourth season and if the Chiefs can't sign him to an extension in 2016, they'll exercise his fifth season option. If they can't extend him in 2017, he'll be Franchised in 2018, when he's 28 years old heading into the season.

Even if he's given the 5th year option and Franchised, he'll only earn about $27 million or so in the next three years.

But if he takes a deal like Johnson, he's locked up for 6 years, through age 31, with $36 million in guaranteed money and averaging about $11 million per with all of the contract incentives.

A bird in the hand...

[kccrow]

I'm on board with Dane here. A Lane Johnson deal is only 1 million APY more than the contract I suggested in the OP, which wouldn't make me cry too much.

I'm not sure exercising the option is the best deal for the Chiefs, its actually rather pricey compared to what the first couple of season would cost on the cap. I think the Chiefs really need to get the extension done now. Whether they'll be able to do that or not is an unknown.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Today is the deadline for 5th year options. I wonder if Dorsey can't get a longterm deal done with Fisher today if he'll go ahead and put the option on him.

[Red Dawg]

I don't see how we don't pick up his option on the cheap for now. He's our starting LT and is getting better.

[ct]

Originally Posted by KnowMo2724

Today is the deadline for 5th year options. I wonder if Dorsey can't get a longterm deal done with Fisher today if he'll go ahead and put the option on him.

i wouldnt pick up the option

[Rausch]

If ever there was a time to "draft for future replacement" I thought it would have been this year. I didn't want to reach but there were probably 5 or 6 T/G prospects who could play respectably in a pinch at either.

I really wanted to grab one of them (in the first 2 rounds) just in case. If Fisher continues to progress we have a solid G, and we desperately need on of those. If not we could kick him out to T until we land a more long term solution there...

[Quesadilla Joe]

The downside of giving Fisher the 5th year option is trying to negotiate him down from that $12M option number. That's top 5 tackle money and I don't think Fisher is worth that.

[RunKC]

He's worth the cap hit if it means keeping him. The guy shut out Von Miller, Melvin Ingram, Khalil Mack (game 2), JJ Watt and Chandler Jones in the 2nd half of the season.

He was starting to look like a top 10 tackle by the end of the year.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by RunKC

He's worth the cap hit if it means keeping him.

He's absolutely not worth $12 million. He was respectable this year.

Not great, not top 10. Respectable.

And in some games played like $3it. Not to mention the whole ankle situation where Stephenson (sucked so bad he's gone Stephenson) played great while Fish nursed a sprained ankle of questionable magnitude.

It's one thing to say he went from clear bust in year one to respectable/solid starter in year 4. I think that's fair.

To say he's worth $12 million is insane. Hell, Smith and co. managed to make the playoffs when he played like ass his rookie year.

I'd overpay Poe and Berry with that money before I gave Fisher a dime over $6 mil....

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I'd overpay Poe and Berry with that money before I gave Fisher a dime over $6 mil....

Jeff Allen, who could barely stay on the field during his 4 year tenure in KC, signed with Houston this offseason for $7 million per.

Donald Stephenson, who's one of the laziest players at any position that I've ever seen in KC, signed a deal with the Broncos for $5 million per.

There isn't a chance in hell that even an average left tackle is going to sign a deal worth $6 million per year.

Not a chance.

[ThaVirus]

I'd imagine he'll settle for something long-term at around $9-10m a year.

He's still young and, if the last half of the 2015 season is any indication, his arrow is pointing way up.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ct

i wouldnt pick up the option

Why not?

Guaranteed for injury only. Sure, he could get hurt and it backfires but if he just sucks, you can still cut him outright.

In the meantime, it locks him in for another year if you really wanted to keep him and avoids even the possibility of having to worry about who to use the franchise tag on next year (Poe). It also reduces his negotiating leverage a little since it's not fully guaranteed money but could still keep him off the FA market.

Exercising the option is a no-brainer, IMO.