Is a defensive 4-3 change coming to KC?

[arrwheader]

I saw this article from arrowhead addict. The guy had an interesting theory that KC might be thinking about switching to the 4-3 scheme based on some recent draft picks and other things. Thought it was worth discussing. What do you say experts? Any merit to what this guys saying?

Full article here:

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/10/...ges-andy-reid/

Does Brett Veach have a secret master plan to fix the defense?

Thomas Welte1 h ago
Has Brett Veach been planning on a long-term defensive overhaul for 2019 that includes a change at defensive coordinator?

Patrick Mahomes has taken the NFL by storm and made believers out of even his harshest critics, and the Kansas City Chiefs are widely considered to be Super Bowl contenders this season.

In the midst of the best start to a season a quarterback in a red and gold (and possibly any other color) uniform has ever had, there is a layer of anxiety from the Kansas City faithful. The offense is firing on all cylinders and has grabbed the attention of the media, but the defense leaves anyone who has followed the Chiefs with a gnawing sensation in their gut on game day.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is bad. The Chiefs are currently last in the league in total defense. Even after a good showing against the Blake Bortles-led Jaguars, the Chiefs are still giving up nearly 20 yards more per game than the next worst defense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While many are drooling over Patrick Mahomes, there remains a great many of us who are sitting at home having flashbacks to 2003, or to the 2013 wild card playoff games against the Colts, or the infamous no punt game. There is no shortage of victories squandered away by subpar defensive units in Kansas City Chiefs history.

Is it possible though that general manager Brett Veach has a secret master plan to fix the maligned unit? Or is the young shot caller for the Chiefs in over his head? Let’s take a look.

I am an avid podcast listener and have to drive a lot for my work. This combination leaves me with plenty of time to dive into a collection of true crime stories and conspiracy theory breakdowns. It was on a particularly long drive back in May, just a few weeks after the NFL draft, that I began to ponder what on earth the Chiefs were doing to their defense. This is when I started to form my own conspiracy theory about the Chiefs and the plan they have for their defense.

The Chiefs traded Marcus Peters this offseason. That move has been discussed ad nauseum, but it is worth mentioning simply because it made (and still makes) very little sense. They brought in Anthony Hitchens who had spent the past year playing inside for Dallas in their 4-3 defense. Then the draft came.

The Chiefs selected Breeland Speaks and announced him as a linebacker, an edge defender. Breeland Speaks is 283 pounds and ran a 4.87, oversized for a linebacker and not possessing the speed you want when dropping a guy into coverage. Their next selection was Derrick Nnadi who was a run stuffing nose tackle, but a bit undersized for a traditional 0 tech nose. Next came Dorian O’Daniel, an undersized but athletic linebacker from Clemson.

What do all of these players have in common? None of them are limited to, or traditional fits, in a base 3-4 defense. I watched a lot of tape on Speaks after the Chiefs drafted him, and Ole Miss played him all over the field. In my opinion, Speaks looked like a prototypical base (left) defensive end in a 4-3. Derrick Nnadi is a natural 1 tech, lining up between the center and guard and defending the run. Dorian O’Daniel makes sense as a weak side linebacker.

So here it is, my thought out theory: Brett Veach is stocking the Chiefs with defenders to make the switch to a base 4-3 defense in 2019.

As of this writing, 7 of the top 10 defenses in the NFL run a 4-3 base defense. I will add that caveat that in today’s NFL the gap between defensive philosophies is narrowing, and no team plays out of only one formation.

That said, as the rules have changed to create a cushion around the quarterback and wide receivers the league defenses are moving away from heavy press man schemes that rely on jarring the quarterback with a pass rush. That is not to say that teams are straying away from pass rushers, but instead they are focusing on using athletic linebackers and safeties to create disequilibrium in the short to intermediate parts of the field, a defensive line to apply pressure, and corners who are aiming to not give up the big play.

This defensive evolution appears to be a marriage of concepts from the Tampa 2 defensive philosophy and the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom philosophy. Looking at the Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineup may help you visualize the concepts.

Andy Reid ran a 4-3 defense in Philadelphia, but inherited a 3-4 team in Kansas City. Reid brought in Bob Sutton who, despite the teams recent struggles, did an excellent job of coaching in his beginning years in Kansas City. Things have changed drastically since then and I firmly believe Sutton will retire this offseason. This opens the door for the Chiefs to make a change on defense since, as their defense sits right now, they are not married to any particular defensive philosophy. They have several players who could play in either scheme.

So who could the Chiefs bring in to coordinate a new defense? Let’s look at some options.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

I don't think it matters what we do. This draft class was so bad, Hitchens has been a bust of a signing, and our highest paid defensive players are all broken and/or will be leaving soon. There are very few building blocks on defense. The defense will likely be just as bad if not worse in 2019.

Well....I mean you ARE an idiot.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

I don't think it matters what we do. This draft class was so bad, Hitchens has been a bust of a signing, and our highest paid defensive players are all broken and/or will be leaving soon. There are very few building blocks on defense. The defense will likely be just as bad if not worse in 2019.

This -

Unless they can begin drafting talent on defense it's not going to matter what they do.

We have exactly one impact player on defense who's young and in uniform every week. That's an issue and it's on Reid and Veach.

[OKchiefs]

Originally Posted by The Pest

Well....I mean you ARE an idiot.

Thanks for the compliment. By the way, what does this comment say about a fool who can't debate without making ad hominem attacks? Are you too ignorant to debate the subject at hand without making personal attacks?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

Thanks for the compliment. By the way, what does this comment say about a fool who can't debate without making ad hominem attacks? Are you too ignorant to debate the subject at hand without making personal attacks?

No....I can debate and still call you a ****ing idiot. I just generally try and stay out of debates with posters like you. It literally goes nowhere. It's like debating Black Bob or Tiger.

[OKchiefs]

Originally Posted by The Pest

No....I can debate and still call you a ****ing idiot. I just generally try and stay out of debates with posters like you. It literally goes nowhere. It's like debating Black Bob or Tiger.

Again with the ad hominem. It's okay buddy, those with little intelligence or intellect just can't help themselves.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

Again with the ad hominem. It's okay buddy, those with little intelligence or intellect just can't help themselves.

Sure thing, pal. Keep up with the same tired ****ing argument.

[OKchiefs]

Originally Posted by The Pest

Sure thing, pal. Keep up with the same tired ****ing argument.

You're the one who can't help but go off topic with the personal attacks. I posted my opinion that was on topic. I don't think it was a particularly outrageous opinion. My opinion very well may be wrong, as opinions often can be.

Personally, I'd suggest either debating the opinion or just ignoring me all together if you just can't help yourself. But if you just can't help yourself and have to use ad hominem arguments then more power to you. I guess you haven't changed much since the days on Warpaint Illustrated.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Shoes

The 4-3/3-4 conversation I don't think is as big of a deal as it used to be. The NFL is dominated by sub packages and the most valuable defensive players tend to be guys who can stay on the field and be successful against multiple personnel. The "base" defense that I am more interested in is who is on the field against 3 WR sets (most commonly used personnel package by offenses these days).

That's why I am so high on a guy like O'Daniel- should be a defender who isn't overwhelmed against the run in 3 WR sets, but matches up well against RB's and TE's.

While most teams run a 3-4, they also employ 4-3 looks, even if it's not their base.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

You're the one who can't help but go off topic with the personal attacks. I posted my opinion that was on topic. I don't think it was a particularly outrageous opinion. My opinion very well may be wrong, as opinions often can be.

Personally, I'd suggest either debating the opinion or just ignoring me all together if you just can't help yourself. But if you just can't help yourself and have to use ad hominem arguments then more power to you. I guess you haven't changed much since the days on Warpaint Illustrated.

You were at Warpaint when I was there? Now I'm intrigued.

[bigjosh]

I feel like this team is never in base defense.

At this point I don’t think many teams are in base all that often. The game has passed it by.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by bigjosh

I feel like this team is never in base defense.

At this point I don’t think many teams are in base all that often. The game has passed it by.

If Ragland is on the field, they're in their base defense. So check how many snaps he has in a given day and you can pretty much assume that's how many snaps they played in their base.

[ChiefsFanatic]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Yeah I mean it’s not like he fielded top 5 defenses two years in a row or anything when Houston and DJ were both healthy.

I know we have been having this disagreement, and I did respond with defensive rankings in response to you saying Sutton fielded the 3 best post-merger Chiefs defenses. And while I think I proved that wasn't true, but I also admitted that Sutton's rankings were much better than I remembered.

But I absolutely stand by my statement that Sutton doesn't adapt to the skills of his players. He is very rigid in his defensive concepts. Maybe it's the era in which he came up as a coach, or his time coaching a military team, but he is either unwilling or unable to change.

But, talking about speed at LB, DJ and Houston have never been fast. I know that I am not an NFL coach, but after years of watching all levels of football, I believe that slower linebackers can be protected a little more in a 4-3 defense, with true defensive tackles and defensive ends.

In a 4-3 a good defensive line can keep the offensive line from getting their hands on the second level, allowing slower linebackers to get to the ball carrier fairly unmolested. But we are playing a 3-4, and our slow linebackers seem to always have someone's hands, an offensive lineman or TE, on them and we continue to get gashed on run defense.

So, my statement saying that Sutton wouldn't know how to put fast linebackers in a position to win stands, because Sutton doesn't see fast, slow, or any other specific talent his players have or don't have. He sees LB, CB, SS, FS, DE, DT, etc. etc.

Sent from my LG-H932 using Tapatalk

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFanatic

I know we have been having this disagreement, and I did respond with defensive rankings in response to you saying Sutton fielded the 3 best post-merger Chiefs defenses. And while I think I proved that wasn't true, but I also admitted that Sutton's rankings were much better than I remembered.

The problem with what you posted is that sandwiched in between 1995 and 1997 was 1996, in which the defense finished 11th in scoring defense and 18th in total yards.

From 2013 to 2016, the Chiefs finished 5th, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th in scoring. In 2013 and 2016, they were 24th in yards. So whether you take the period of 2013 to 2015 or the period from 2014 to 2016, those 3 years together are better than 1995-1997 because 1996 wasn't even top 10.

Forget "best 3-year stint", let's go 4 years. You can use 1994, in which they were 7th in scoring or you can use 1998, in which they were 22nd.

Bob's first 4 years here were the best of any DC since the AFL days. It's really not disputable. Marty's teams never put together back to back seasons of top 5 defense, ever.

Originally Posted by ChiefsFanatic

But I absolutely stand by my statement that Sutton doesn't adapt to the skills of his players. He is very rigid in his defensive concepts. Maybe it's the era in which he came up as a coach, or his time coaching a military team, but he is either unwilling or unable to change.

What does he need to change? When given the talent, they were a top 5 scoring defense in multiple years.

Originally Posted by ChiefsFanatic

So, my statement saying that Sutton wouldn't know how to put fast linebackers in a position to win stands, because Sutton doesn't see fast, slow, or any other specific talent his players have or don't have. He sees LB, CB, SS, FS, DE, DT, etc. etc.

Talk about semantics.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFanatic

But, talking about speed at LB, DJ and Houston have never been fast.

DJ ran a 4.5 and Houston ran a 4.6.

You are talking out your ass.

Our linebackers aren't even slow.

Hitchens and Ragland are 4.7 guys, which is fine for ILB. Ford is a freak.

The problem with this defense isn't speed. It's tackling and just general lack of coverage ability, and total shit at safety.

[Bewbies]

Originally Posted by bowener

I think NFL defenses are going to shift toward a 4-2-5 defense. We will probably see all D-Line personnel weighing 300+ and specialize in stuffing the run. ILBs are going to become the premium position going forward. NFL offenses have everything stacked in their favor and the college spread is here to stay.

This article does make a lot of sense and I can easily see us going with a 4 front and using Houston and Speaks as our pass rushing end that will be rotated often to keep them fresh. Ford is gone after this season if that happens. I’d love to see somebody similar to Jabrill Peppers added to our secondary/LB Corp too. That hybrid position is going to become very popular.

You gotta wade through a lot of shit here anymore to get something like this, but it’s gold Jerry!

The new defensive metrics we pay attention to won’t be yards, cause the NFL makes you play defense with your hands and feet tied together and blindfolded. Getting off the field on 3rd down, and points will be about all that matters.

It’s interesting to see how the league adapts to this.