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Old 11-21-2018, 12:19 AM  
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB
Spoiler!


Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR
Spoiler!


There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers arenít the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I donít want him for that coin, but heís a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? Iím not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I donít know.

DL
Spoiler!


That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw heís not Donald, and heís probably not Watt. I donít think I want him up there.

Pass Rush
Spoiler!


We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ainít carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isnít contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but theyíre obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner
Spoiler!


I donít I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isnít very good.

Iíd argue that paying guys top contracts donít work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I donít see it.

Thatís not to say donít pay anybody anything. Obviously that wonít work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. Iíd probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts Ė contracts that donít provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts Ė maybe guarantee more of it, but I donít want these giant contracts.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:27 AM   #2
kcpasco kcpasco is offline
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2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:32 AM   #3
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The value of RBs has plummeted as the passing rules have relaxed.

It's honestly kinda shitty.

I would pine for 90s football if we didn't have Patrick Mahomes.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:37 AM   #4
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Good post.

I would pay Tyreek Hill right now and be fine with it. I think he’s worth it. I’d also offer a contract to Chris Jones, but not at or higher than Aaron Donald’s.
Dee Ford will probably get the tag, but if he gets a contract I’d like it to be a 3 year deal like Sammy’s. That would mean his money is off the books when Mahomes starts getting big money to the cap on his deal.

Everyone else is expendable. Hunt, Fuller, Nelson, Ragland, Conley, Butker, Morse.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:38 AM   #5
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcpasco View Post
2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable.
I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.

OBJ is legit. But the Giants are total **** even with him on there. Obviously he's not contributing to wins.

Plus if we extend him after next year he'll be 30 by the end of a 5 year deal and will probably have lost a step. I'm not all about speed guys who are aging.

Christ it sucks ass, but I think it's the thing to do. He's going to get PAID and I don't think it should be us.

Remember when Manning had Marvin Harrison and everyone thought he was the best ever. Remember when Manning didn't have Marvin Harrison?

I think Hill is better than Harrison, but looking through that list, particularly OBJ, it's tough for me to pay a guy that doesn't contribute to wins.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:43 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Buehler445 View Post
I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.
You're insane.

He makes everyone on the offense better.

He is invaluable.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:45 AM   #7
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Good post.

I would pay Tyreek Hill right now and be fine with it. I think heís worth it. Iíd also offer a contract to Chris Jones, but not at or higher than Aaron Donaldís.
Dee Ford will probably get the tag, but if he gets a contract Iíd like it to be a 3 year deal like Sammyís. That would mean his money is off the books when Mahomes starts getting big money to the cap on his deal.

Everyone else is expendable. Hunt, Fuller, Nelson, Ragland, Conley, Butker, Morse.
I don't think you can extend Hill until after next season. I think that's right anyway.

Sammy's at 15, Houston is at 17. I can't justify wrapping up that kind of money in 2 OLB with so many games missed to injury.

Jones, even if he's below Donald, is still a ****LOAD of cash. And there are games when Jones disappears. That shit just gives me heebeejeebees.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:49 AM   #8
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You're insane.

He makes everyone on the offense better.

He is invaluable.
So is OBJ. And they have 2 mother****ing wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull away from $20M per on the bench.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:49 AM   #9
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WADR, I don’t really think the argument of guys getting paid a lot but not winning games is good when evaluating this. It’s not OBJ or David Johnson’s fault that their teams suck. Look at the QB situations, the offensive line, etc.

Tyreek is developing into a top 3 WR if he isn’t already and he literally is the most dangerous player in football right now. He can’t get away. Watkins’ contract right now is a luxury and once he’s off the books, we basically replace his salary with Tyreek. I understand letting Ford go after tagging him for a year because of his injury history, but Jones is starting to look like a true game wrecker and that’s hard to pass up.

You can’t pinch pennies with superstars. Absolutely can’t do it. I mean just look at what Oakland did getting rid of Mack and what he has done for Chicago.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:53 AM   #10
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It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:54 AM   #11
kcpasco kcpasco is offline
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It would be like the Steelers not paying Brown and I think Hill is as good or even better. It’s just talent you aren’t gonna replace in the draft.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:55 AM   #12
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It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.
Yeah I love Hunt but I’m not paying top money to a RB unless I have no QB and desperate for offense.

Look at all those years of JC being our best player got us.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:57 AM   #13
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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WADR, I donít really think the argument of guys getting paid a lot but not winning games is good when evaluating this. Itís not OBJ or David Johnsonís fault that their teams suck. Look at the QB situations, the offensive line, etc.

Tyreek is developing into a top 3 WR if he isnít already and he literally is the most dangerous player in football right now. He canít get away. Watkinsí contract right now is a luxury and once heís off the books, we basically replace his salary with Tyreek. I understand letting Ford go after tagging him for a year because of his injury history, but Jones is starting to look like a true game wrecker and thatís hard to pass up.

You canít pinch pennies with superstars. Absolutely canít do it. I mean just look at what Oakland did getting rid of Mack and what he has done for Chicago.
We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel . Flowers got injured a ****ton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:00 AM   #14
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We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel . Flowers got injured a ****ton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.
Maybe Iím being naive but I donít see Hill turning into a bum like Bowe. Houston and Berry have been snake bit with injuries.
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:02 AM   #15
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We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel . Flowers got injured a ****ton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.
Youíre highlighting some of KCs flops, and with the case of Berry and Houston it has been freak injuries (although I donít think the book is fully written for those twoís legacy in KC).. but what about other teams?

Antonio Brownís deal has been great for Pittsburgh. Aaron Donald is off to a hell of start, as well as Mack. Chandler Jones too. Belichick paid Gilmore a ton and it has paid off. Thereís a ton of positive examples too.

Iím sure thereís a happy medium in there somewhere, but you canít just let every star player walk out of fear that theyíre going to have fluke injuries or whatever. Like Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel werenít even very good players. Weíre talking about Hill, Jones, etc. here.
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