David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[rico]

This speaks volumes. If there is anyone who knows Alex Smith it's David "WE WANT CARR!!!WE WANT CARR" Carr. Glad to see him give what appears to be an honest opinion.

[wazu]

The stats about how Alex gets shittier as the year goes on are amazing.

[BlackHelicopters]

If anyone knows a shitty QB, it’s David Carr.

[BigCatDaddy]

And water is wet

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

I don't think it will happen. I think we'll get the usual steady Alex against the Bills.

But if it does happen....and Reid doesn't bench him. Then Reid can be gone with Alex as far as I'm concerned.

I think it WILL happen. Both Smith AND Reid are NOT "bounce back" guys. When this team has come back the following week after an ass kicking, it wasn't Reid and Smith doing the leading. From time to time, the defense just gets tired of this shit and throws down the juice. And of course, Reid and "Shitty" get to profit from it.

This defense COULD feast on Buffalo. The question is, will they?

[yeti]

So Smith is dome soft. What is Mahomes like in cold weather?

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by yeti

So Smith is dome soft. What is Mahomes like in cold weather?

wasn't that cold but he put up a million yards on ou in 30mph wind last year

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Hate

I think it WILL happen. Both Smith AND Reid are NOT "bounce back" guys. When this team has come back the following week after an ass kicking, it wasn't Reid and Smith doing the leading. From time to time, the defense just gets tired of this shit and throws down the juice. And of course, Reid and "Shitty" get to profit from it.

This defense COULD feast on Buffalo. The question is, will they?

This D ain't got no juice.

[prhom]

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Hate

I think it WILL happen. Both Smith AND Reid are NOT "bounce back" guys. When this team has come back the following week after an ass kicking, it wasn't Reid and Smith doing the leading. From time to time, the defense just gets tired of this shit and throws down the juice. And of course, Reid and "Shitty" get to profit from it.

This defense COULD feast on Buffalo. The question is, will they?

I could easily see Tyrod starting this week and having a great game against us to prove he shouldn’t have been benched. The chiefs haven’t had a stretch like this since the 1-5 start a few years ago. Some of the guys on the team now will remember that. Will anyone step up? Let’s see. I share your doubt that it’s Smith. The offensive line might and that could be enough if Hunt were to have a monster game with multiple TDs.

[RobBlake]

Alex will finish the season

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by RobBlake

Alex will finish the season

I think that decision sets us back 1 more year. Let Mahomes finish, get his feet wet in a playoff game, reap the rewards next year.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by ARROW2

2 TDs?

I was about to say, a 2 touchdown 235 yard game is a pretty decent game. I wouldn't complain if he did that every game lol

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Coogs

I think that decision sets us back 1 more year. Let Mahomes finish, get his feet wet in a playoff game, reap the rewards next year.

This. Why waste a whole year just so Alex doesn't get his feelings hurt. We're going no where this season. I think if we fall to .500 there is a pretty good chance Andy will put in Mahomes.

[ARROW2]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

I was about to say, a 2 touchdown 235 yard game is a pretty decent game. I wouldn't complain if he did that every game lol

he is not gonna throw 2 TDs. Hasn't in 4 of the last 5.




No, Tyreek in Dallas doesn't count, so don't even try it.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by prhom

I could easily see Tyrod starting this week and having a great game against us to prove he shouldn’t have been benched. The chiefs haven’t had a stretch like this since the 1-5 start a few years ago. Some of the guys on the team now will remember that. Will anyone step up? Let’s see. I share your doubt that it’s Smith. The offensive line might and that could be enough if Hunt were to have a monster game with multiple TDs.

Agreed. There are offensive options outside of Smith as well. Smith is so cursed in that he has NO ability to be that guy that fires up the team and marches them out breathing fire.
The defense has lost its leaders due to injury and when that happens, the discipline breaks down, the gut goes un-checked, and shitty teams can put some points up. That said, the D did its job against NYG.
Frankly, I'm ready to start Mahomes if only to get the rest of this team out of its funk.