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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).
Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:55 PM   #316
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Yeah, and I think traveling to the west coast is really gonna make it tough.
We would lose if Oakland had to travel to Mars to play us.
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:03 PM   #317
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Can't see the Jaguars winning another game. Chiefs need to lose out.
They could beat Tennessee but I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:16 PM   #318
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I'm sure it's been discussed somewhere, but if the Jags get the first pick would they go for a quarterback? If not, we could be saved by all the whining that Geno's not worth a #1 pick, because if that's true then no one will trade up for him.
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:34 PM   #319
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****ing Jags.
We need the #1 pick. Both Oakland and the Jags could take a QB. We need to identify our QOTF and pick him #1.

I don't give a shit that our QOTF is slotted on mocks to go at pick #5. We have blew two top 5 picks in the last few years. Get the best QB and go on to round 2.
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:37 PM   #320
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Can't see the Jaguars winning another game. Chiefs need to lose out.
yep, Tennessee looked good today.
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Old 12-09-2012, 07:07 PM   #321
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For whatever reason, their defensive line destroy our offensive line every time,
I'm gonna go with, "Their D-line isn't bad and our offensive line sucks balls" for $1000.
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Old 12-09-2012, 07:12 PM   #322
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There are two top notch QB's in this draft. We'll end up with the 3rd pick.
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:32 PM   #323
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Here's the weirdest stuff I can come up with for the final three weeks.

The Colts will win the AFC South if they win their final three games now. There are actually scenarios out there where they could be the #1 overall seed, but it would require the Pats to stumble against someone they shouldn't lose to. If they won out a #2 seed wouldn't be completely unrealistic given the other teams' schedules though.

The funniest thing though while playing with ESPN's playoff machine... Cleveland still technically has a shot if they win out. I was able to get them in as a 6 seed. Never going to happen with their schedule though. The really funny thing was the Chargers still have a chance too at 8-8. Still a complete longshot but really not completely unrealistic if the Bengals and Steelers slipped up. Nothing like Pittsburgh having to lose to Jacksonville would be required. Four more years of Norv!
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:35 PM   #324
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If we lose vs. OAK and JAX wins vs. TEN do we own the #1 pick at that point even if we beat Denver?
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:55 PM   #325
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Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
Here's the weirdest stuff I can come up with for the final three weeks.

The Colts will win the AFC South if they win their final three games now. There are actually scenarios out there where they could be the #1 overall seed, but it would require the Pats to stumble against someone they shouldn't lose to. If they won out a #2 seed wouldn't be completely unrealistic given the other teams' schedules though.

The funniest thing though while playing with ESPN's playoff machine... Cleveland still technically has a shot if they win out. I was able to get them in as a 6 seed. Never going to happen with their schedule though. The really funny thing was the Chargers still have a chance too at 8-8. Still a complete longshot but really not completely unrealistic if the Bengals and Steelers slipped up. Nothing like Pittsburgh having to lose to Jacksonville would be required. Four more years of Norv!
If Indy wins out, they have a 16% chance of getting the number 1 seed and a 48% chance of getting the 2 seed.

If Cleveland wins out, they have a 20% shot of making the playoffs.

If San Diego wins out, they have a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

This took about 3 minutes with my software.
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:56 PM   #326
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It's good to know we'll get Indy's best shot.
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:56 PM   #327
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If we lose vs. OAK and JAX wins vs. TEN do we own the #1 pick at that point even if we beat Denver?
Yes, as long as we lose to Indy.
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:06 AM   #328
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I figured you'd have the numbers. I guess those numbers aren't surprising. Although Cleveland's schedule is brutal, no way they win out. San Diego actually has a legit shot to win out with their schedule. It would require Cincy and Pittsburgh to stumble a bit though.

Still, I think Denver quitting will be a bigger concern for us than Indy. It's now set up where New England could win out and make Denver's last game pointless at 4:25 that last Sunday. The Niners winning in NE next week could actually help the Chiefs draft chances by keeping Denver in play.
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:10 AM   #329
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Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:58 AM   #330
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There are two top notch QB's in this draft. We'll end up with the 3rd pick.
possibly 3 if Bray gets his shit together
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