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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 11-16-2017, 10:08 PM   #7246
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Old 11-16-2017, 10:32 PM   #7247
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Rany has the chance of retaining Hosmer at 25%. Seems high.
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Old 11-17-2017, 12:58 PM   #7248
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It looks like we got the 36th overall pick for the competitive balance round. We could have 5 picks in the first 50. I still don't have much faith Dayton and co. can find the right guys or that our minor league system can successfully develop them.
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Old 11-17-2017, 02:22 PM   #7249
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Thought this was kindof an interesting take on Hosmer. Granted, I'm not vested in him and it mirrors my position but it may also be a little bit of salve for Royals fans in the likely event he leaves...

https://www.101sports.com/2017/11/16...on-vs-reality/

The thesis:

Quote:
Hosmer is an inkblot talent … when folks look at him, they’ll see whatever the hell they want to see based on bias or just personal preference.

Hosmer fanatics probably think he’s a poor man’s Joey Votto.

Hosmer skeptics put him slightly above, say, Matt Adams.
And he's right in the respect that there aren't a lot of people in the middle on him. He's one of the stranger, more polarizing FAs we've seen in awhile. I'd say Heyward was something similar in that people questioned if he was worth what his WAR says he is, what was his potential worth and just how valuable was his production since it oft lagged in traditional areas.

Heyward was obviously a gamble lost and Hosmer appears to be in a similar territory to me.
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Old 11-17-2017, 04:38 PM   #7250
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Thought this was kindof an interesting take on Hosmer. Granted, I'm not vested in him and it mirrors my position but it may also be a little bit of salve for Royals fans in the likely event he leaves...

https://www.101sports.com/2017/11/16...on-vs-reality/

The thesis:



And he's right in the respect that there aren't a lot of people in the middle on him. He's one of the stranger, more polarizing FAs we've seen in awhile. I'd say Heyward was something similar in that people questioned if he was worth what his WAR says he is, what was his potential worth and just how valuable was his production since it oft lagged in traditional areas.

Heyward was obviously a gamble lost and Hosmer appears to be in a similar territory to me.

Oh, I think he will, and I think the Royals could better allocate the overall funds it would take for him (unless they really can afford to sign both Hosmer and Moustakas), but I think Carlos Santana is an interesting comparison for Hosmer.

Santana has definitely benefited from playing in a great park for LH power while Hosmer has played in a park that saps power.

What would Santana's numbers look like playing at Kaufman Stafium full time? Well, over the past five years, the ESPN HR tracker shows that 25 of Santana's HR would not have left the K. Many of them would have been routine outs in right field. If you convert all of those to outs , Santana looks much different. He'll, just converting 15 makes him look a ton different.

The defensive first base metrics are also totally ****ed. I don't care what the stats guys say, if they can say something SO different from what all the scouts and players see (which is that Hosmer is an excellent defensive first baseman, particularly adept at scoops, stretches, and catches outside his normal radius, with quick feet and the ability to adjust), there's something wrong.

He definitely has some risk associated with him. I laugh a little when I see articles speculating that Hosmer could be convinced to change his swing to hit more fly balls (good luck with that. Better convince his brother the professional fireman to do it, or it isn't happening).

Those are just things that stand out from the counterpoints Miklasz presented.

That said, I'll take the 32nd pick in the MLB draft, and what I can buy with the 6-7 years of $21 million a year (for starters, I'm thinking Carlos Gomez and Logan Morrison on 2-3 year deals).
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Old 11-17-2017, 08:26 PM   #7251
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2018 Offseason Repo is posted. I'll get to Prospects soon, probably over the holidays.

http://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=311616
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Old 11-17-2017, 09:22 PM   #7252
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2018 Offseason Repo is posted. I'll get to Prospects soon, probably over the holidays.



http://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=311616


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Old 11-17-2017, 10:15 PM   #7253
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Old 11-17-2017, 10:18 PM   #7254
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Old 11-18-2017, 07:14 AM   #7255
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Old 11-18-2017, 07:17 AM   #7256
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Old 11-18-2017, 07:20 AM   #7257
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Old 11-18-2017, 07:29 AM   #7258
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one last post from me.

r.i.p. a great run.

time to begin anew.
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Old 11-18-2017, 10:57 AM   #7259
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