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Old 04-19-2017, 08:00 AM  
Cochise Cochise is offline
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When will the Democrats win again?

Democrats begin to wonder: When do we win?

For all the roiling anger and energy at the grassroots, the party still fell short in Georgia and Kansas. And Democratic prospects in upcoming elections aren't promising.

By GABRIEL DEBENEDETTI 04/19/17 05:06 AM EDT




As it became clear late Tuesday evening that Jon Ossoff would fall just short of the 50-percent mark in the first round of voting in a suburban Atlanta special election, Democrats back in Washington started leafing through their calendars and asking: When does the winning start?

Ossoff’s moral victory — capturing 48 percent of the vote in a conservative-oriented district — was welcome, but after two successive close-but-no-cigar finishes in House special elections in Georgia and Kansas, a new worry is beginning to set in.

For all the anger, energy, and money swirling at the grassroots level, Democrats didn’t manage to pick off the first two Republican-held congressional seats they contended for in the Trump era, and the prospects aren’t markedly better in the next few House races coming up: the Montana race at the end of May, and the South Carolina contest on June 20.

Their best shot at knocking Donald Trump down a peg appears to be Ossoff’s runoff against Republican Karen Handel, also scheduled for June 20. But the Democrat will be an underdog in that contest, when there won’t be a crowded field of Republicans to splinter the vote.

After that, it’ll be another five months before the New Jersey and Virginia elections for governor, leaving some strategists and lawmakers wondering how to keep the furious rank-and-file voters engaged in fueling and funding the party’s comeback — especially given the sky-high expectations that surrounded Ossoff’s ultimately unsuccessful run at the 50-percent threshold that was necessary to win the seat outright.

“The resistance has it right: they are fighting mad, but they find joy in the fight. And so it’s not that anybody should be expected to gloss over the challenges that we have, or be Pollyanna about our situation as a country or as a party,” said Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz, decrying some of the party’s messaging describing the prospect of an Ossoff loss as devastating. “It’s just that there has to be a sense of momentum that builds over time and that requires that we define our objectives tightly — and that we are prepared to lose more than we win for the time being, but that we understand that we have the vast majority of the American people on our side, and history on our side.”

Democrats have posted a few successes in the opening months of the Trump era. They’ve slowed the new president’s agenda and overperformed in a slew of low-profile state legislative races. By any measure, Ossoff’s strong performance in Georgia and the 20-point swing toward the Democratic nominee in last week’s Kansas special election are impressive accomplishments given the conservative orientation of those districts. But they still fall under the category of loss mitigation, not victories against a president the party loathes.

Now, with Ossoff falling short of an outright win despite an unprecedented surge of campaign cash and national attention — in a district which Hillary Clinton lost by just one point in 2016 — comes the potential for another round of finger-pointing within the party. The worry: that if operatives and voters continue their practice of quietly blaming each other for losses, as they did after a narrow defeat outside of Wichita last week, the current level of runaway enthusiasm and budding trust in the national party leadership could sputter out long before the 2018 midterms.

“Whatever happens over the next few weeks, it’s critical that rank-and-file Democrats feel like the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee] left it all on the playing field,” said longtime party strategist Simon Rosenberg, president of the NDN think tank.

After attorney James Thompson came within seven points of winning the race for CIA Director Mike Pompeo’s old seat in Kansas last week, some leading progressive voices, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, were quick to blame national Democrats for not spending enough time and energy to help Thompson. Since then, DCCC and Democratic National Committee officials have been sure to detail the work they’ve done for the party ahead of Ossoff’s race.

With the approach of a Montana contest that will see national resources poured in while political celebrities like Sanders descend on the state to support candidate Rob Quist, the question Democrats are asking themselves is whether it will be enough — and how to keep the grassroots fires stoked as Trump’s administration passes its first 100 days mark. Trump won Montana by 21 points, after all, and the race in Georgia to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price illustrated that a combination of Republican infighting, the Trump factor and an avalanche of campaign cash still isn’t enough to guarantee Democratic success.

The South Carolina race to replace Budget Director Mick Mulvaney will take place under similarly difficult conditions — in a district Trump won by 18 points, and in a state where he won by 14.

One way to avoid a letdown, some Democrats say, is to train the focus on legislative fights where Democrats have slowed the White House, from its travel ban to the attempt to repeal Obamacare. Party operatives figure pushes like that might be enough to keep the base energized as opportunities to push back on individual policies surface.

“People are responding to Trump, and as long as Trump is in office they will continue to respond,” said Democratic pollster Margie Omero. “There are plenty of other avenues for engagement. Constant meetings and groups popping up all over the country. You have corporate motivated efforts that people are taking to make sure that companies they support have political views that line up with their own. You have the groundswell of activism against [Neil] Gorsuch, and then you have the protests like the tax protest or the climate ones coming down the pike. So there’s lots of opportunity for opposing the president. [Yes,] as long there’s voting people are going to be paying a lot of attention to it. But it goes beyond that.”

The fact that Democrats have picked themselves up off the ground since Election Day to mount a resistance at all creates a positive feedback loop, they believe — pointing to local legislative races as evidence of an optimistic trend.

“The biggest driver of enthusiasm right now is the rejection of Trump and the Trump agenda,” said party strategist Jesse Ferguson, a former top official at the party’s House campaign wing. “There have been far more successes in resisting the Trump administration than anyone would have expected on November 10, whether it’s beating back the health care repeal or some of these special elections in state legislatures, or closer-than-expected congressional races.”

With the political map glaringly free of obvious near-term win opportunities, Schatz believes the party’s messaging needs some refining. In his view, that means officials at the DCCC should cut the doom-and-gloom messaging in their fundraising emails — a significant way the party communicates with backers.

“I don’t mind the occasional call to action that is based on a negative emotion, it’s the declaring final defeat at the start of the third quarter that bugs me. ‘All is lost’ is a preposterous thing to say to a voter or a donor, and to use words like ‘crushing’ is a total misunderstanding of how to motivate people,” he said on Tuesday, just hours before the DCCC sent out a Nancy Pelosi-signed note with the subject line "crushing loss."

“The point to be made here is this is Tom Price’s seat,” he added. "One of the most conservative people in the United States House. And when he vacated his seat nobody thought it was going to be a problem for national Republicans and competitive for us. So if we can keep up this competitiveness, it’s going to be a really interesting year in 2018. But if we define our success as winning in Kansas, Montana, and Georgia, we’re setting ourselves up for potential disappointment.”


http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...-ossoff-237348
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Old 04-20-2017, 10:16 AM   #61
vailpass vailpass is offline
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Oh dear. Sounds like the apocalypse is upon us.

Right? The last 8 years have really cut some people loose from the docks of reality.
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Old 04-20-2017, 10:18 AM   #62
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Once they quit shitting on white working class voters and gun rights.
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They also need to change their tune on Islam.

Those are the 3 biggest reasons i will never vote D.
That would be a good start
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Old 04-20-2017, 10:19 AM   #63
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Old 04-20-2017, 10:33 AM   #64
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Old 04-20-2017, 12:42 PM   #65
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Right? The last 8 years have really cut some people loose from the docks of reality.
Okay. Tell me how right to work is good for anyone except business owners. While you're at it, tell me why you think it's a good idea to give tax exempt religious organizations state grants.
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Old 04-20-2017, 12:51 PM   #66
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Okay. Tell me how right to work is good for anyone except business owners.
It means that people aren't forced to join a union, or to pay union dues, just to get a job. That's obviously good for those people.

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While you're at it, tell me why you think it's a good idea to give tax exempt religious organizations state grants.
If you're giving those grants to non-religious organizations, it's anti-religious discrimination not to give them to religious organizations, if the reason for denial is the fact that the organization is religious. Is it your position that anti-religious discrimination is acceptable under the First Amendment?
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Old 04-20-2017, 12:54 PM   #67
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It means that people aren't forced to join a union, or to pay union dues, just to get a job. That's obviously good for those people.
Unless those people are looking for better wages or better benefits.

In which case not having a union is demonstrably worse.

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If you're giving those grants to non-religious organizations, it's anti-religious discrimination not to give them to religious organizations, if the reason for denial is the fact that the organization is religious. Is it your position that anti-religious discrimination is acceptable under the First Amendment?
If you're giving them to anti-religious organizations, it's discrimination against religion. Giving them to secular organizations, however, is constitutionally neutral to religion, which is perfectly constitutional under the Establishment clause of the 1st amendment.
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Old 04-20-2017, 12:57 PM   #68
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Okay. Tell me how right to work is good for anyone except business owners.
If you really want an answer, off the top of my head fluidity in the job market can be a big boon for both.

If you need a job now, it helps if prospective employers aren't facing the prospect of a mountain of bureaucracy and blanket protections when deciding whether or not to hire you. ie, the future flexibility to fire you if you turn out to be a shit hire or if business needs drop off factors into whether to hire you to begin with.
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Old 04-20-2017, 12:58 PM   #69
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Democrats, by the way, are performing well above their standard showings in these districts.

That doesn't mean they'll win the seats; both districts are beat-red. But it does mean that when 2018 rolls around, they'll probably be able to hold their own in the Senate, win a dozen to two dozen seats in the House, and most importantly, make huge gains in governorships.

One hopes.
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Old 04-20-2017, 12:59 PM   #70
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If you really want an answer, off the top of my head fluidity in the job market can be a big boon for both.

If you need a job now, it helps if prospective employers aren't facing the prospect of a mountain of bureaucracy and blanket protections when deciding whether or not to hire you. ie, the future flexibility to fire you if you turn out to be a shit hire or if business needs drop off factors into whether to hire you to begin with.
I disagree with BL's conclusions on unions, but this is a solid counter-point.
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:21 PM   #71
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Democrats, by the way, are performing well above their standard showings in these districts.

That doesn't mean they'll win the seats; both districts are beat-red. But it does mean that when 2018 rolls around, they'll probably be able to hold their own in the Senate, win a dozen to two dozen seats in the House, and most importantly, make huge gains in governorships.

One hopes.
From another forum and poster that I thought was very well put:

In Kansas:

"First, James Thompson (D) got 55k votes. That's fewer votes than the Democratic challenger to Mike Pompeo got in November 2016 (the challenger, Giroux, got 78k votes). Meanwhile, Ron Estes (GOP) got roughly one third the votes that Pompeo got in November. So while the Democrats got more votes than they normally would have, there's no evidence that they actually persuaded any Pompeo voters to pull the blue lever. Usually, Republicans are more likely to vote in midterms than Democrats. If the enthusiasm gap reverses, a Democratic House is likely. But if Republicans manage to turn out in bigger numbers than Democrats in 2018 again, then it's at least another two years of Republican trifecta."

"I wouldn't make too many predictions based on special election outcomes, because the opposition party has an insane advantage in these elections. The voters of the governing party feel like they've already won the election, whereas the voters for the opposition party, filled with righteous indignation, will take any chance at a marginal victory. Special elections can produce the strangest winners. Scott Brown (GOP) won a special election in sky-blue Massachusetts after Senator Ted Kennedy passed. Granted, he was running against Coakley, the worst candidate ever to seek any public office, but still. A Republican winning a senate seat in a state Obama won by 25 points was a significant victory. However, the GOP failed to pick up a single seat House in Massachusetts in November of that year."

The positive side of things with the democrats is that there is a movement - voters are staying engaged and coming out to vote... if they can keep this up and are not apathetic after losing these races - they will have a chance to take some seats... but the democrats have to get their shit together and work as a team to do it...
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:21 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Democrats, by the way, are performing well above their standard showings in these districts.

That doesn't mean they'll win the seats; both districts are beat-red. But it does mean that when 2018 rolls around, they'll probably be able to hold their own in the Senate, win a dozen to two dozen seats in the House, and most importantly, make huge gains in governorships.

One hopes.
Moral victories, huh.

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Old 04-20-2017, 01:24 PM   #73
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Moral victories, huh.
Statistical trends based on current voting patterns.
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:27 PM   #74
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I also feel like the republicans are not getting any credit here either... trumps team can get people to vote, and they will come out in large numbers...

The November election is a prime example...

I think if it was any other republican candidate, they lose Kansas and Georgia...
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:29 PM   #75
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Statistical trends based on current voting patterns.
I think special elections do not follow the same rules as mentioned in my post above...
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