Crow's Mock 11-23

[kccrow]

Re-Signings:

Rodney Hudson, OC
Sign to a 6 year, 37.5 million dollar contract with 10.5 million guaranteed. Average is 6.25 million per, the same as Jason Kelce received from Philadelphia.
Contract structure:
Year Base Bonus Cap Hit
2015 3.00 1.75 4.75
2016 4.00 1.75 5.75
2017 4.00 1.75 5.75
2018 5.00 1.75 6.75
2019 5.00 1.75 6.75
2020 6.00 1.75 7.75


Justin Houston, OLB
Sign to a 6 year, 85.5 million dollar contract with 27.5 million guaranteed. Average is 14.25 million per, between JJ Watt (16.7) and Clay Matthews (13.2).
Contract structure:
Year Base Bonus Cap Hit
2015 7.00 4.50 11.50
2016 8.00 4.50 12.50
2017 8.00 4.50 12.50
2018 11.00 4.50 15.50
2019 11.00 4.50 15.50
2020 13.00 4.50 17.50

Ron Parker, DB
Sign to a 3 year, 6.75 million dollar contract with 3.25 million guaranteed (1st year base salary of 1 million + 2.25 million signing bonus). Average is 2.25 million per, in line with about 40th highest salary amongst CBs and 28th highest salary amongst Safeties.
Contract structure:
Year Base Bonus Cap Hit
2015 1.00* 0.75 1.75
2016 1.50 0.75 2.25
2017 2.00 0.75 2.75

Kevin Vickerson, DL
Sign to a 1 year, $970,000 contract with $65,000 guaranteed. Two-year veteran cap rule means $570,000+$65,000 = $635,000 cap hit.

James-Michael Johnson, ILB
Sign to a 1 year, $660,000 contract with $65,000 guaranteed. Two-year veteran cap rule means $635,000 cap hit.

Josh Mauga, ILB
Sign to a 1 year, $745,000 contract with $65,000 guaranteed. Two-year veteran cap rule means $635,000 cap hit.

Josh Martin, OLB
Tender ERFA at $510,000 for experience.

Thomas Gafford, LS
Sign to a 1 year, $970,000 contract with $65,000 guaranteed. Two-year veteran cap rule means $635,000 cap hit.

Frankie Hammmond, WR
Tender ERFA at $510,000 for experience.

Demetrius Harris, TE
Tender ERFA at $510,000 for experience.

Junior Hemmingway, WR
Tender RFA at $585,000 for experience

Joe McKnight, RB
Sign to a 1 year, $745,000 contract with $65,000 guaranteed. Two-year veteran cap rule means $635,000 cap hit.

Kelcie McCray, DB
Tender RFA at $660,000 for experience

Total Re-Signings: $23,950,000

Free Agents:

Jeremy Maclin, WR (Philadelphia Eagles)
Sign to a 5 year, 37.5 million dollar contract with 15 million guaranteed (1s year base salary of 2.5 million fully guaranteed + 12.5 million signing bonus). Average is 7.5 million per, in line with Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Mike Williams contracts.
Model contract structure:
Year Base Bonus Cap Hit
2015 2.50 2.50 5.00
2016 4.00 2.50 6.50
2017 5.00 2.50 7.50
2018 7.50 2.50 10.00
2019 6.00 2.50 8.50

David Harris, ILB (New York Jets)
Sign to a 4 year, 23 million dollar contract with 11 million guaranteed. Average is 5.75 million per, in line with the contract D'Qwell Jackson signed with the Colts at age 30 this year.
Model contract structure:
Year Base Bonus Cap Hit
2015 1.75 2.75 4.50
2016 3.25 2.75 6.00
2017 3.25 2.75 6.00
2018 3.75 2.75 6.50

Brandon Graham, OLB/DE (Philadelphia Eagles)
Sign to a 4 year, 14 million dollar contract with 6 million guaranteed. Average is 3.50 million per, in line with Rob Ninkovich contract extension last season and about 18th highest contract for 3-4 OLBs.
Model contract structure:
Year Base Bonus Cap Hit
2015 1.00 1.50 2.50
2016 1.50 1.50 3.00
2017 2.50 1.50 4.00
2018 3.00 1.50 4.50

Denarius Moore, WR (Oakland Raiders)
Sign to a 3 year, 9 million dollar contract with 3.75 million guaranteed (1st year base salary of $750,000 plus $3 million signing bonus). Average is $3.00 million per, in line with contracts like Donnie Avery and Brandon LaFell the past couple seasons.
Model contract structure:
Year Base Bonus Cap Hit
2015 0.75 1.00 1.75
2016 2.25 1.00 3.25
2017 3.00 1.00 4.00

Total Free Agent Signings: $14,000,000

Let Walk:
Chris Owens, CB
Nick Williams, DT
Kurt Coleman, FS
Jeff Linkenbach, OG
Mike McGlynn, OG
Ryan Harris, OT
Phillip Supernaw, TE
Jason Avant, WR

Cuts (Savings):
Jeff Allen, OL ($1,023,249)
Mike DeVito, DE (4,000,000)
Cyrus Gray, RB (668,500)
A.J. Jenkins, WR (1,337,390)
Derrick Johnson, ILB (5,250,000)
Eric Berry, FS (5,455,000)
Donnie Avery, WR (3,550,000)
Dwayne Bowe, WR (5,000,000)
Chase Daniel, QB (3,800,000)
Joe Mays, ILB (3,000,000)
Tamba Hali, OLB (9,000,000)
Vance Walker, DL (1,750,000)
Total Savings: $43,834,139

Estimated Needed Rookie Cap Space (based on pick 21 in draft + 3rd, 5th, 5th, and 7th round comps) is $6.56 million.

Total Cap Space after Moves and Draft: -$670,398
Add Cap Rollover from 2014: $1,196,121-670,398 = $525,723
Remaining Savings likely to be realized after cut-downs: 56 players on roster, less 5 estimated at $2.1 million as a minimum (5 rookies at 420,000 each).
Cap Space 2015 season: $525,723 + 2,100,000 = $2,625,723


NFL Draft
Round 1: DeVante Parker, WR - Louisville (6'3" 209)
Round 2: Cameron Erving, OT - Florida State (6'5" 308)
Round 3: Jake Ryan, LB - Michigan (6'3" 235)
Round 3: Cam Thomas, DB - Western Kentucky (6'1" 190)
Round 4: Quentin Rollins, DB - Miami (Ohio) (6'0" 203)
Round 5: John Miller, OG - Louisville (6'2" 321)
Round 5: Darius Kilgo, DT - Maryland (6'2" 310)
Round 5: Adam Shead, OG - Oklahoma (6'4" 339)
Round 6: Nick Boyle, TE - Delaware (6'5" 270)
Round 7: Henry Anderson, DE - Stanford (6'6" 295)
Round 7: Tre McBride, WR - William & Mary (6'1" 205)

Roster Breakdown:
QB Alex Smith
QB Aaron Murray
QB Tyler Bray

RB Jamaal Charles
RB Knile Davis
RB De'Anthony Thomas
RB Joe McKnight

WR Jeremy Maclin
WR DeVante Parker
WR Denarius Moore
WR Albert Wilson
WR Tre McBride
WR Frankie Hammond
WR Junior Hemmingway

TE Travis Kelce
TE Anthony Fasano
TE Demetrius Harris
TE Nick Boyle

LT Eric Fisher
RT Cameron Erving
OT Donald Stephenson

LG John Miller
RG Zach Fulton
OG Adam Shead
OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff

OC Rodney Hudson
OC Eric Kush

DE Allen Bailey
DE Jaye Howard
DE Kevin Vickerson
DE Mike Catapano
DE Henry Anderson

NT Dontari Poe
NT Darius Kilgo

SOLB Justin Houston
WOLB Brandon Graham
OLB Dee Ford
OLB Josh Martin
OLB Frank Zombo

ILB David Harris
ILB Jake Ryan
ILB Josh Mauga
ILB James-Michael Johnson

CB Sean Smith
CB Phillip Gaines
CB Cam Thomas
CB Marcus Cooper
CB Jamell Fleming

SS Husain Abdullah
FS Ron Parker
DB Kelcie McCray
DB Quentin Rollins

K Cairo Santos
P Dustin Colquitt
LS Thomas Gafford

Draft Picks Likely to go to PS: Henry Anderson - DE, Tre McBride - WR
Potential Late Cuts: Frankie Hammond - WR
Additional thoughts on Free Agents acquisitions...

WR Jeremy Maclin - Obviously familiar with Reid's system. An explosive receiver that can gain immediate separate with his quickness, which will aid Alex Smith and his complex.

ILB David Harris - One of the best ILBs in the game in the 3-4. A good player nearing the end of his prime. Should be able to sign him to a relatively "friendly" final contract. Obviously familiar with Bob Sutton's system.

WR Denarius Moore - Explosive receiver that has shown the ability to produce in an anemic offensive system. Is in the dog house this year, and much of it is to do with his frustrations in Oakland. His price should be low because of this, and one thinks he might want to hit Oakland in the mouth and stay within the division.

OLB Brandon Graham - A Reid draft pick familiar with his philosophies, but would be learning a new system with Sutton. Has shown the ability to be a spot starter and situational pass rusher. Could flourish as a 3-4 OLB in Sutton's more aggressive rush schemes, and would at least be legitimate depth.

Additional thoughts on the volume of turnover...

KC will obviously have to make critical decisions this offseason and it starts with some big names that fans have become accustomed to. Dwayne Bowe, Derrick Johnson, Mike DeVito, Tamba Hali, and Eric Berry have become staples over the past few years, but their contracts are becoming prohibitive to the Chiefs.

Johnson and DeVito are both coming off of Achilles injuries at the end of their careers, and its hard to want to invest 9.25 million in two guys that likely will not be the same players in 2015 as they have been in the past. While DeVito is a good run stopper, the defensive line has played rather solid over this season, so it seems easy to move on from his loss. The loss that stings is Johnson, as the run defense at the 2nd level has been porous. Adding Harris in place of Johnson would provide a player that isn't coming off injury and is as proven of a stud. It seems a draft pick should also be invested. The only way I can see the Chiefs keeping Johnson in 2015 is a cut and re-sign at a lower salary situation, or a re-structure/extension.

Eric Berry has health issues outside of football that could end his career. It seems that the Chiefs will be without him regardless, so it seems senseless to carry even a portion of his contract.

So that brings us to the two biggest decisions in Dwayne Bowe and Tamba Hali. Obviously KC drafted Dee Ford with the idea of replacing and aging Hali with a monster contract. So far, the consensus opinion is that Ford isn't ready. It seems likely though that KC will have to part ways with Hali, unless he is willing to re-structure for a much more modest salary. Even a re-structure limits KC's ability to fix other important areas, like ILB, WR, and O-Line. A more modest signing like a Brandon Graham, coupled with Hali's exit, seems like a logical choice. Ford will need to step up.

As for Dwayne Bowe, he's anything but worth his enormous cap figure in 2015. The Chiefs can just about add 2 receivers with legitimate separation quickness that can better aid Alex Smith on Bowe's cap savings alone. I find it hard to imagine a scenario where retaining Bowe is a good idea, especially if KC can land players such as Maclin and Moore in his place.

The rest of the cuts are players that add little legitimate value to an NFL team. Most are backups and bargain bin disasters. Let them go. Considering potential cap space, may consider keeping Jeff Allen to see how he performs in pre-season.

[RealSNR]

If we ditch Derrick Johnson in the offseason, I'm really not all that comfortable rolling with JMJ again at ILB. I'd hope we'd find our replacement in free agency or in the upper levels of the draft (thought I'm not seeing guys that can really do what we need them to do-- what we need is a Kiko Alonso and I'm not seeing one projected in the 1st and 2nd round mocks out there. A lot of dudes like McKinney, but we've already got Mays for that.

What do you like about Jake Ryan? I admittedly don't know much about him.

[Direckshun]

This is a really interesting offseason.

But if the Raiders loss taught us anything, it's that Mauga and JMJ are unserviceable at ILB.

[O.city]

Lotta turnover of the roster

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by SNR

If we ditch Derrick Johnson in the offseason, I'm really not all that comfortable rolling with JMJ again at ILB. I'd hope we'd find our replacement in free agency or in the upper levels of the draft (thought I'm not seeing guys that can really do what we need them to do-- what we need is a Kiko Alonso and I'm not seeing one projected in the 1st and 2nd round mocks out there. A lot of dudes like McKinney, but we've already got Mays for that.

What do you like about Jake Ryan? I admittedly don't know much about him.

What I like about Ryan is the following:

1. Tenancity. This guy brings it to the table every week. He's fiercely competitive. You don't have to worry about A grade effort.

2. Attacks Downhill. This guy will attack the line of scrimmage and make plays. He gets in the backfield. He can stuff the run.

3. Speed. This guy plays fast. He's got great speed. He can flow from the backside. He can get out and make a tackle in space.

4. Tackling. If he gets there, he makes the tackle. He's got over 90 tackles this year again. He's just aroudn the action and makes the tackles a linebacker is supposed to make.

5. Physique. He's not a 250 lb linebacker, but he's thickly built and plays that way. He's all of 235, which isn't much smaller than DJ.

6. Cover capable. He can cover a tight end. He's 6'3" with good speed. He isn't a midget, and he isn't slow. He won't be a 2 down liability.

7. I'm an Ohio State Fan. Pimping a U of M player is not in my nature, so to do that a player has to be pretty damn solid

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by O.city

Lotta turnover of the roster

I anticipate there will be quite a bit with the sheer volume of free agents KC has going into the offseason. I have them re-signing a healthy dose of those. Remember some 9 players are additions because of injury since the opening day.

Only 2 of my cuts are guys that will have played any significant time this season so far (Avery, Jenkins). I don't think I'm disrupting much with the cuts. Of the "let walk" guys, only 3 will have seen much time (McGlynn, Hemmingway, Hammond).

Of those 5 players - Avery, Jenkins, McGlynn, Hemmingway, Hammond - perhaps only Avery is any good at all.

[Otter]

Originally Posted by kccrow

What I like about Ryan is the following:

1. Tenancity. This guy brings it to the table every week. He's fiercely competitive. You don't have to worry about A grade effort.

2. Attacks Downhill. This guy will attack the line of scrimmage and make plays. He gets in the backfield. He can stuff the run.

3. Speed. This guy plays fast. He's got great speed. He can flow from the backside. He can get out and make a tackle in space.

4. Tackling. If he gets there, he makes the tackle. He's got over 90 tackles this year again. He's just aroudn the action and makes the tackles a linebacker is supposed to make.

5. Physique. He's not a 250 lb linebacker, but he's thickly built and plays that way. He's all of 235, which isn't much smaller than DJ.

6. Cover capable. He can cover a tight end. He's 6'3" with good speed. He isn't a midget, and he isn't slow. He won't be a 2 down liability.

7. I'm an Ohio State Fan. Pimping a U of M player is not in my nature, so to do that a player has to be pretty damn solid

8. He remember Molly Ringwald's birthday.

[Hoover]

I like it, but my only concern is that we don't really address our offensive line issues. A fourth and sixth round OT does not address our issues up front. This is especially troubling in a draft where you have 11 picks.

WR and ILB is a need. I don't know if a second round FS is a need. I think we need to grab an interior lineman in the first three rounds. I also don't know if I resign Harris. He's a project, and if we are going to run 3 TE sets, he needs to be a legit NFL TE. And I kind of doubt that we will keep Fasano.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Hoover

I like it, but my only concern is that we don't really address our offensive line issues. A fourth and sixth round OT does not address our issues up front. This is especially troubling in a draft where you have 11 picks.

WR and ILB is a need. I don't know if a second round FS is a need. I think we need to grab an interior lineman in the first three rounds. I also don't know if I resign Harris. He's a project, and if we are going to run 3 TE sets, he needs to be a legit NFL TE. And I kind of doubt that we will keep Fasano.

I understand where you're coming from. I was torn on picking up a safety too, but after today maybe it isn't a bad idea... (ugh)... As for the line, I'm making an assumption that somehow James Carpenter comes available and somehow KC signs him. If that doesn't happen, the Chiefs will need to draft a guard earlier in my opinion. I only drafted a swing tackle prospect in round 4 and a tackle to guard conversion in 6 for depth. We'll have to see. I'm sure I'll change my mind a few more times.

[kccrow]

Looking at an update...

Change Free Agency...
Retain DL Vance Walker, eliminate signing of OG James Carpenter

Round 1: WR DeVante Parker - Louisville
Round 2: OT Cameron Erving - Florida State
Round 3: LB Jake Ryan - Michigan
Round 3: CB Cam Thomas - Western Kentucky
Round 4: DB Quinten Rollins - Miami (Ohio)
Round 5: LB Lynden Trail - Norfolk State
Round 5: OG Adam Shead - Oklahoma
Round 5: DE Henry Anderson - Stanford
Round 6: OT Jamon Brown - Louisville
Round 6: WR Tre McBride - William & Mary
Round 7: TE Nick Boyle - Delaware

QB	Alex Smith
QB	Aaron Murray
QB	Tyler Bray
RB	Jamaal Charles
RB	Knile Davis
RB	De’Anthony Thomas
FB	Anthony Sherman
WR	Dwayne Bowe
WR	DeVante Parker
WR	Cecil Shorts
WR	Albert Wilson
WR	Tre McBride
TE	Travis Kelce
TE	Anthony Fasano
TE	Demetrius Harris
TE	Nick Boyle
OT	Donald Stephenson
OT	Eric Fisher
OT	Cameron Erving
OG	Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
OG	Zach Fulton
OG	Adam Shead
OL	Jamon Brown
OC	Eric Kush
OC	Rodney Hudson

DE	Allen Bailey
DE	Jaye Howard
DE	Kevin Vickerson
DE	Mike Catapano
DE	Henry Anderson
NT	Dontari Poe
DL	Vance Walker
OLB	Dee Ford
OLB	Frank Zombo
OLB	Lynden Trail
OLB	Justin Houston
OLB	Tamba Hali
ILB	James Michael Johnson
ILB	Joe Mays
ILB	Josh Mauga
ILB	Jake Ryan
CB	Jamell Fleming
CB	Marcus Cooper
CB	Phillip Gaines
CB	Sean Smith
CB	Cam Thomas
S	Eric Berry
S	Husain Abdullah
S	Quinten Rollins
S	Ron Parker
K	Cairo Santos
P	Dustin Colquitt
LS	Thomas Gafford

[Sandy Vagina]

^ very nice sleeper pick in CB Rollins. Still don't love the Jake Ryan pick, but admittedly, have not seen enough to truly judge him.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

^ very nice sleeper pick in CB Rollins. Still don't love the Jake Ryan pick, but admittedly, have not seen enough to truly judge him.

Definitely like Rollins. Could become a nice, physical CB, but can slide over to FS. Type of guy you want in the nickle package for sure.

[jonzie04]

just looked into rollins never seen him play. that guy has some ridiculous ball hawking skills. saw that espn thing as well that he was #2 in steals in miamis basketball history. great find crow! do want.

[kccrow]

What do you guys think about Maryland WR Deon Long? I contemplated putting him in this update.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I anticipate there will be quite a bit with the sheer volume of free agents KC has going into the offseason. I have them re-signing a healthy dose of those. Remember some 9 players are additions because of injury since the opening day.

Only 2 of my cuts are guys that will have played any significant time this season so far (Avery, Jenkins). I don't think I'm disrupting much with the cuts. Of the "let walk" guys, only 3 will have seen much time (McGlynn, Hemmingway, Hammond).

Of those 5 players - Avery, Jenkins, McGlynn, Hemmingway, Hammond - perhaps only Avery is any good at all.

There is no way in hell that Hemingway is cut. He is, by far and away, the best special teams player on the team as well as being the #4 receiver. He's more valuable than any of the other receivers we have on roster at this point.