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Old 01-27-2010, 12:12 PM  
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New Apple Tablet

Cool stuff. On Engadget live right now

http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/27/l...est&refresh=30

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Old 03-29-2011, 10:27 PM   #1381
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I just bought an Android tablet and wasn't even in the market for one...because of the price.
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Old 03-29-2011, 10:31 PM   #1382
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC Fish View Post
I would definitely bet against Apple lowering its tablet market share to <16% in 18 months. Absolutely.
October 1st 2012? OK, I will revise my bet to be <16% by Jan 1st 2013... so let's make it 21 months. I want to catch the Christmas season!

I think we have barely scratched the surface regarding the TOTAL number of tablets that will be selling over the next few years and 2012 looks to be the BIG year for sales. 2012 should see the "average Joe" and the enterprise buying into the space.

Right now we measure tablet sales in the 10s of millions... I'm talking about 100s of millions of sales. Of course I'll be dead wrong if the prices don't drop like I think they will.

On a side note, I'd like to point out that I appreciate all the debate in this thread. Most people have put forth well constructed logical arguments. Now I still think you're all idiots to disagree with me but logical idiots nonetheless.
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Old 03-29-2011, 10:32 PM   #1383
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Originally Posted by The Meat Dragon View Post
I just bought an Android tablet and wasn't even in the market for one...because of the price.
Exactly, and this trend is only going to snowball over the next 21 months.
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Old 03-29-2011, 11:23 PM   #1384
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Huh? My predictions in this thread were mostly about HTML5 adoption rates and the phasing out of FLASH... and guess what.. now that it is one year later... I was right. Flash is still HUGE on the web and HTML5 support is spotty at best. Yes "there's an app for that" but I STILL don't want a goddamn app for every website I might want to go to. And a perfect FAIL example is the YouTube app. It works great if you only want access to half the content out there.

The only other "prediction" I made was regarding the Gemini tablet which had great specs and just never got released here in the States. I was dead wrong on that one.

BTW I was not a fan of Android back when this thread started either... I preferred WebOS. Android has made huge strides since then though.

I really haven't predicted much until recently. Which I assume you aren't talking about since they are all predictions in the last couple months and it'd be kinda hard to judge those so soon.
LOL...

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I still don't get it guys... why not wait a month(Date 04-06-2010) and get the ICD Gemini... runs on Android 2.1(so you can actually view a FLASH website) - it is 2" longer - faster processor - sdcard slot - fm radio - makes VOICE CALLS - can receive/send SMS and MMS - has both a forward facing and rear camera with autofocus - HD VIDEO SUPPORT - can support USB peripherals - AND has built in GPS.

Personally I will wait until the MS Courier comes out to look into that space...
Or....

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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
AND.. if 12-18 months(date 05-01-2010) is how long it takes to get a majority of the web converted to a standard that AS OF RIGHT NOW has yet to be determined... why buy a device NOW that will be outdated by the time it is useful?

Also, I don't care if IE and Safari are 60 or even 80% of the browser market.. if Google decided to put it's weight behind VP8... either IE and Safari will support it as well OR Chrome, Mozilla and Opera will replace them... end of story.

People will use whatever browser supports the content .. and right now Google controls the lion's share of content.
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But as I pointed out, people are excited about WebM for good reasons. It will drastically cut storage size while still performing marginally better than h.264 (all the big players have signed on for hardware support). Combine that with the fact that since it is TRULY open source, we should see pretty serious community development.

WebM is a good thing... but just like h.264/html5 supposedly replacing Flash video... it too will take awhile. Flash simply isn't going anywhere soon.

Now that Android 2.2 is ready for prime time... there isn't much reason (unless battery life is the key factor) to go with an ipad over an Android tablet(05-20-2010.... like 20 million iPad sales ago...). The prototypes are all making the rounds now, so expect them to hit market in June and July.
Or....

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ok, NO I said 100 apps due to the fact that I may vist 100 sites for video content.. each requiring a different app... try to keep up.

Seriously, bet me on the APP versus standards based web model ... let's see which is more sustainable. It's a proprietary crap, half-assed model that will FAIL. It simply fullfills a need NOW that in 12-18 months is gone. I made this same Apple bet 15 years ago and won it.. please tell me you'll put your money where your mouth is on this. You don't ACTUALLY believe that an APP based model isn't going BACKWARDS? As I said before, even Jobs knows better.
And you predicted Youtube to drop H264 support a year ago(very likely)...

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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
For how long? YouTube is encoding HD video in WebM format from now on... what happens if they stop support for h264 all together (very likely)... YouTube, Google and the rest are adopting something crazy called.. OPEN SOURCE STANDARDS... if Apple is smart (and so far they have been stubborn) they will follow suit.. if not.. they wil ONCE AGAIN face bankruptcy due to Jobs' piss ignorant arogance... I have never seen a man take GREAT technology and piss away opportunity like he can... (NeXT)
Yeah... they almost bankrupt on the iPad...

And WebM..... yeah...

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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Those sites COULD serve h.264 via HTML5... but they don't and now it looks like they never will... why invest in and chase a dying codec?. And NO h.264 is not a de facto standard (it was headed that way, I will admit)... the open source community resisted it and looks to have won this battle (with Google's considerable help). The state of web video will remain a fragmented mess for the next year or two while WebM takes hold...

Fact: The industry is moving towards WebM because it performs as well, has a smaller footprint and is FREE. All the major mobile hardware manufacturers are on board and even Intel has said they are willing to optimize for it as it becomes popular. It's popularity is assured by the fact that YouTube is migrating to it.
Nope... you haven't been predicting anything through this thread...

Just sayin....
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Old 03-29-2011, 11:38 PM   #1385
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
October 1st 2012? OK, I will revise my bet to be <16% by Jan 1st 2013... so let's make it 21 months. I want to catch the Christmas season!

I think we have barely scratched the surface regarding the TOTAL number of tablets that will be selling over the next few years and 2012 looks to be the BIG year for sales. 2012 should see the "average Joe" and the enterprise buying into the space.

Right now we measure tablet sales in the 10s of millions... I'm talking about 100s of millions of sales. Of course I'll be dead wrong if the prices don't drop like I think they will.

On a side note, I'd like to point out that I appreciate all the debate in this thread. Most people have put forth well constructed logical arguments. Now I still think you're all idiots to disagree with me but logical idiots nonetheless.
Sounds good. Let's say something crazy like, if Apple's tablet market share is < 16% on Jan 1st, 2013, I'll buy you the current iPad. But if Apple's share is > 16%, you buy me the current equivalent Android tablet. That should make it interesting no? Hopefully prices won't have quadrupled in that time...

I'm not going anywhere, and I don't figure you to be leaving in 20 months. So... Bring it......
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Old 03-29-2011, 11:50 PM   #1386
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On a side note, the predicted jump in Windows Mobile phones is striking. I wouldn't have thought that the Nokia partnership would have made THAT big of a difference, but I guess we'll see.
There is no way that Blackberry gains though. Those things are trash.
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Old 03-29-2011, 11:51 PM   #1387
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC Fish View Post
Nope... you haven't been predicting anything through this thread...

Just sayin....
I'll address each quoted piece in order... You may want to do some fact checking because MOST of what I said has been spot on...

#1 yes, I admitted to being wrong on the Gemini

#2 I was RIGHT, HTML5 is STILL not a standard .. far far from it, so thank you. I stand by the fact that I can do more on my phone or my Win7 tablet than you can on an iPad simply by the fact that they ignore FLASH and the "magic bullet" of HTML5 is still not here yet.

#3 Again I was right, Android 2.2 came out and the early Tablets followed soon after... they sucked.. and they were still better than iPads because they actually worked. MISQuote sales all you want...(it's been 15 million iPads sold)but back then I wasn't predicting market share. I was talking functionality

#4 I'll admit I was wrong here... for now.. I still think web standards is going to be the way to go and "apps" aren't the long term solution... I was dead wrong on the time frame.

#5 Again I was right... nothing I said in that post was wrong.. WebM IS YouTube's video standard now.. they haven't turned off h.264... but they are moving more that way and still could turn it off completely if they wanted to. The bankruptcy part was a long long long term prediction if Jobs and Apple don't adapt to the market and instead stubbornly try to dictate.

#6 Again I was correct... tons of sites STOPPED converting to h.264 based html5 video because they are waiting for a standard now that WebM is out there... Google even dropped h.264 support from Chrome... the biggest hurdle right now is waiting for the hardware vendors to catch up on optimization.

Ok so let's recap...

I make a prediction that the Gemini tablet would be out in a few months...so did EVERYONE by the way... and I was wrong.. I already admitted that.

I also dogged on the app model and I was wrong on it's longevity.. I still hate the model but it's gonna take awhile to get rid of it unfortunately. So score 2 wrong predictions.

Pretty much everything else was right... and that's not even counting a multitude of posts on the Flash vs HTML5 debate where I was right as well.
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Old 03-29-2011, 11:54 PM   #1388
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Originally Posted by KC Fish View Post
Sounds good. Let's say something crazy like, if Apple's tablet market share is < 16% on Jan 1st, 2013, I'll buy you the current iPad. But if Apple's share is > 16%, you buy me the current equivalent Android tablet. That should make it interesting no? Hopefully prices won't have quadrupled in that time...

I'm not going anywhere, and I don't figure you to be leaving in 20 months. So... Bring it......
HA, I'd go for that but I don't need a paperweight! Also, you are getting screwed in that deal.. the iPad would cost you ~$500 and the equivalent Android tablet would only cost me ~$250
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:07 AM   #1389
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HA, I'd go for that but I don't need a paperweight! Also, you are getting screwed in that deal.. the iPad would cost you ~$500 and the equivalent Android tablet would only cost me ~$250
Well let's say we'd donate the winning tablet to the nearest local church or equivalent social donation.... I'm willing to bet regardless of the obvious price differences (that you perceive).... Part of the punishment will be convincing the receiving party that the tablet you bet against will be good for their need....

2 years from now... don't tell me you're worried about your bet.......
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:16 AM   #1390
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Well let's say we'd donate the winning tablet to the nearest local church or equivalent social donation.... I'm willing to bet regardless of the obvious price differences (that you perceive)....

2 years from now... don't tell me you're worried about your bet.......
Nope not in the least worried about the bet... we'll need to agree on the exact parameters though. It's easy to tell what an iPad tablet is... with Android it gets a bit stickier... you'll probably want to set some guidelines. I will say that I DO want to count any size over 7"... but does a Nook Color count for example? I would imagine it would since it (starting in April) has almost full tablet functionality... I may concede that it would have to have access to at least ONE app market to qualify.
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:18 AM   #1391
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Nope not in the least worried about the bet... we'll need to agree on the exact parameters though. It's easy to tell what an iPad tablet is... with Android it gets a bit stickier... you'll probably want to set some guidelines. I will say that I DO want to count any size over 7"... but does a Nook Color count for example? I would imagine it would since it (starting in April) has almost full tablet functionality... I may concede that it would have to have access to at least ONE app market to qualify.
If it comes to that much of a decision, we'll let the mob vote on it.... added plus.....
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:22 AM   #1392
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Nope not in the least worried about the bet... we'll need to agree on the exact parameters though. It's easy to tell what an iPad tablet is... with Android it gets a bit stickier... you'll probably want to set some guidelines. I will say that I DO want to count any size over 7"... but does a Nook Color count for example? I would imagine it would since it (starting in April) has almost full tablet functionality... I may concede that it would have to have access to at least ONE app market to qualify.
Shit, I already forgot the bet is not Android vs Apple it's iPad <16% .. which means we need a definition for "tablet".. because it's going to include the RIM, HP, Microsoft and even Linux offerings as well... I am guessing you don't want to count hybrids like my Win7 tablet that is a netbook with a screen that flips around... this is where it gets complicated
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:28 AM   #1393
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If it comes to that much of a decision, we'll let the mob vote on it.... added plus.....
Not sure I would trust the mob.. they would just vote for me for fear of being banned!

How about this... we take the bet ... we put forth our respective figures at the time and then WE both decide if there is a clear cut winner. How does that sound? Don't worry, if I am wrong I am perfectly willing to admit it and pay up!

I truly think it will be close... I think you are looking at about 50 million iPads sold by then. Which puts the total of tablets sales needed for me to win at 320 million.

You are starting at 15 million right now... I am starting at considerably less... (I'll have to see if that figure is even available right now)

Oh and we ARE talking worldwide sales.. the figures are much easier to find...

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Old 03-30-2011, 12:29 AM   #1394
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Some standardization will have to be established, sure. Maybe we can choose a website we agree on that calculates market share that will likely be around in 21 months...

Dammit this is getting complicated.. I wonder if there is an app for this.....
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:31 AM   #1395
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Not sure I would trust the mob.. they would just vote for me for fear of being banned!

How about this... we take the bet ... we put forth our respective figures at the time and then WE both decide if there is a clear cut winner. How does that sound? Don't worry, if I am wrong I am perfectly willing to admit it and pay up!

I truly think it will be close... I think you are looking at about 80 million iPads sold by then. Which puts the total of tablets sales needed for me to win at 500+ million.

You are staring at 15 million right now... I am starting at considerably less... (I'll have to see if that figure is even available right now)
Fine with me. I'm willing to keep this light hearted, and I'm fully intent on following through.
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