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Old 04-21-2018, 04:51 PM  
TimBone TimBone is offline
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Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

I know in the hearts of every planeteer, Mahomes has already led us to multiple Super Bowls, and that this whole career thing is just a formality before his HOF induction ceremony, but what is everyone realistically looking for from him this season?

Maybe I'm just letting my battered fan syndrome take over, but I feel like we need to pump the brakes a little bit. He looked solid against Denver, sure, but he's still just a second year guy that was pretty raw coming out of college.

So, what kind of numbers would everyone be happy with? What kind of things will you all be personally looking for from him?

Lastly, if you think I'm being a pussy and need to shut up and buckle up for the Mahomes show, please hit me with your best neg rep. The funnier the better.
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Old 04-21-2018, 06:56 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by SAUTO View Post
Marino did it in 84
I'm not saying it's impossible, just extraordinarily unlikely. And definitely not "realistic" to expect 5k yards, which has never been done in a QBs first year as a starter.

Marino had 11 games of experience in the '83 season, so it also wasn't his first year starting.
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Old 04-21-2018, 06:56 PM   #47
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He's done the same things at every level so far. I think it will continue. Only with much better skill players.


He's going to blow this mother ****er apart
Yep.

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Old 04-21-2018, 06:57 PM   #48
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.
You don't think Mahomes will put up an average of 59 more passing yards per game than Alex Smith?

Watkins averages 15.9 yds/catch
Hill averages 15.8
Kelce averages 12.7
Hunt averages 8.7

The Chiefs brass traded away Smith because they thought they could get more output from Mahomes; they doubled down on that bet by giving Watkins a big contract.

Its not just Mahomes; it is the weapons he has at his disposal. I think the Chiefs probably have the best set of offensive skill position players in the NFL.
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Old 04-21-2018, 07:09 PM   #49
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You don't think Mahomes will put up an average of 59 more passing yards per game than Alex Smith?

Watkins averages 15.9 yds/catch
Hill averages 15.8
Kelce averages 12.7
Hunt averages 8.7

The Chiefs brass traded away Smith because they thought they could get more output from Mahomes; they doubled down on that bet by giving Watkins a big contract.

Its not just Mahomes; it is the weapons he has at his disposal. I think the Chiefs probably have the best set of offensive skill position players in the NFL.
Considering that across the NFL, teams have an average of 11.5 possessions per game, you're telling me that it is unrealistic to think that Mahomes will average 5 passing yards more per possession than Alex Smith?

I was (am) a big fan of Alex Smith, but the big difference between Mahomes and Smith is that Mahomes throws the ball *downfield*; he isn't looking for the dump-off, he is looking for the first down and more each and every time.
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Old 04-21-2018, 07:15 PM   #50
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He sat for a year to learn, has a great offensive mi def coach and legit starting cast around him. No training wheels, it’s time to take off and be legi
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Old 04-21-2018, 07:18 PM   #51
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The brakes do need to be pumped a bit. He'll be elite in time, but probably not 2018.

I expect 4k yards, 26 TD/14 INT year one. Chiefs go 8-8. His first year will be pretty similar to Aaron's.
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Old 04-21-2018, 07:24 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
Considering that across the NFL, teams have an average of 11.5 possessions per game, you're telling me that it is unrealistic to think that Mahomes will average 5 passing yards more per possession than Alex Smith?



I was (am) a big fan of Alex Smith, but the big difference between Mahomes and Smith is that Mahomes throws the ball *downfield*; he isn't looking for the dump-off, he is looking for the first down and more each and every time.

That sounds like a small number, but if you factor in the likely increase in turnovers, those 5 yards per possession become much larger and difficult to attain.

Everybody says he's Brett Favre. Well, for a good chunk of Favre's career, he had many seasons where he didn't crack 4000. And factor in the consecutive games started- the guy never got hurt.

The 90s were a different era of football, which is why it's not at all a stretch to confidently predict 4000 for Mahomes in his first year. But that's as far as I'll go. Gunslinger does not always mean 5000 yards
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Old 04-21-2018, 07:41 PM   #53
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That sounds like a small number, but if you factor in the likely increase in turnovers, those 5 yards per possession become much larger and difficult to attain.

Everybody says he's Brett Favre. Well, for a good chunk of Favre's career, he had many seasons where he didn't crack 4000. And factor in the consecutive games started- the guy never got hurt.

The 90s were a different era of football, which is why it's not at all a stretch to confidently predict 4000 for Mahomes in his first year. But that's as far as I'll go. Gunslinger does not always mean 5000 yards
Hell, Rodgers, who Mahomes has also been compared to, and a better QB than Favre, hasn't even threatened 5k. Only one season over 4500.
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Old 04-21-2018, 07:46 PM   #54
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anything over 3600 yards and under 20 INTs I would consider a success statistically.
lead the offense to average 26 points or over would be a successful output too
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Old 04-21-2018, 08:02 PM   #55
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Hell, Rodgers, who Mahomes has also been compared to, and a better QB than Favre, hasn't even threatened 5k. Only one season over 4500.
Does that mean you think Brees is better than Rodgers?
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Old 04-21-2018, 08:05 PM   #56
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I’d prefer not to see Mahomes over 5000 yards. That’d mean bad things about our complete lack of running game and no defense.
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Old 04-21-2018, 08:09 PM   #57
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Does that mean you think Brees is better than Rodgers?
Brees is a lot better than he gets credit for. If Brady wasnít doing what he has I think Brees would be in the conversation as best in the league for the last 10 years or so.

Rodgers is the only guy (Manning and Brady included) that Iíd take over Brees as competitors of his era.
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Old 04-21-2018, 08:18 PM   #58
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Does that mean you think Brees is better than Rodgers?
Not sure what that has to do with the conversation. I'm not using yardage as a singular indicator of anything, other than the likelihood of surpassing 5k yards in a season. Mahomes is often compared to both Rogers and Favre - strong arms, gunslinger mentality, pass-first offense. Neither QB has ever threatened 5k.

Brees is the ONLY QB to ever crest 5k yards more than once - he's done it 5 times. Didn't do it until his 8th year in the league.

Personally, I'd take Rodgers over Brees, but I wouldn't fault someone for choosing Brees.
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Old 04-21-2018, 08:29 PM   #59
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Grew up around a father who was in pro sports, drafted by one of the best QB developers in football, spent time with one of the best OCís his rookie year who is now a HC, sat a year learned from a veteran QB who was willing to help him...and finally will have 2 pro bowl receivers, pro bowl TE, pro bowl RB and a solid pass protecting OL.

I canít think of a better situation in any time in league history for any young QB to step in and start his career.

Environment is the most predictable element for any young QB. Look at every good young QB. Wentz had below average numbers his first year and then looked amazing year 2 bc the Eagles stocked a ton of talent around him. Same with Goff. Watson and Dak walked into talented teams and look at what they did?

I will be shocked if Mahomes (barring injury) has less than 30 TDís and 4,000 yards. Jared ****ing Goff didnít have as good of surrounding receivers and was in his first year with McVay and he had 3,800 yards and 28 TDís. Yup I think Mahomes can top that bc he has a higher ceiling and better environment.

DeShaun Watson was on pace to throw 17 INTís last season and nobody gave a shit about it. I think youíll see very similar things from Mahomes this year that you saw from Watson last year.

If I had to guess, Iíd say something around 34 TDís, 16 INTís and 4,400 yards.
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Mahomes stat prediction: 30 TDís/14 INTís/4,200 yards
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Old 04-21-2018, 08:36 PM   #60
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I feel pretty confident saying Mahomes will throw for over 30 tds. Thats two per game average. He doesn't have the redzone limitations Smith had. The ints are the real x factor. He will throw more than Smith did but he will also score more.
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