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Old 09-27-2019, 02:36 PM  
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Should Trump make the following threat....

This thread isn't intended to concern itself with Trump's guilt or innocence regarding his real possibility of being impeached and removed from office. Those discussion are happening elsewhere. This thread is intended to discuss what strategies Trump should take to maximizing his chance of remaining president. With that topic in mind I present the follow question.

Should Trump threaten to run as an independent in 2020 in the event he is removed from office in his first term? Doing so would all but insure a democrat victory in the 2020 presidential race. It would force the Senate republicans to choose between rallying behind him, voting not to convict, or concede the White House to the democrats.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:40 PM   #2
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Well the notion that an impeached and convicted president would be forever banned from holding public office is going to be discussed and I would assume find "bipartisan" support so..
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:42 PM   #3
AdolfOliverBush AdolfOliverBush is offline
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Nobody would believe him if he did. He has established a pattern of making big threats, then backing down.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:46 PM   #4
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Article I, section iii, clause 7

Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law

So it sounds like he would not be able to hold office. I would think he could still run though asking people to write his name in.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:47 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo View Post
This thread isn't intended to concern itself with Trump's guilt or innocence regarding his real possibility of being impeached and removed from office. Those discussion are happening elsewhere. This thread is intended to discuss what strategies Trump should take to maximizing his chance of remaining president. With that topic in mind I present the follow question.

Should Trump threaten to run as an independent in 2020 in the event he is removed from office in his first term? Doing so would all but insure a democrat victory in the 2020 presidential race. It would force the Senate republicans to choose between rallying behind him, voting not to convict, or concede the White House to the democrats.
Why? If he has lost the 2/3 of the Senate, does it really matter at that point. I mean who do the Republicans run that would have any shot if Trump goes down in flames? If 2/3 are set to vote him out including 20 Republicans I think the Senators only concern is their own jobs and really are not concerned with 2020 Presidential race.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:48 PM   #6
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush View Post
Nobody would believe him if he did. He has established a pattern of making big threats, then backing down.
If the republicans in the senate urge him to resign because they have decided to vote for conviction, what does Trump have to lose by making such a threat to run a write in campaign?
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:52 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo View Post
If the republicans in the senate urge him to resign because they have decided to vote for conviction, what does Trump have to lose by making such a threat to run a write in campaign?
I am guessing a guy who has upset 1/2 the country and runs a lot of golf and hotel businesses probably does not want to go after the other 1/2 of the country. If he losses 20 Republicans he might as well walk away by saying I am done, worth 10 billion and do not need another 4 years.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:52 PM   #8
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Why? If he has lost the 2/3 of the Senate, does it really matter at that point. I mean who do the Republicans run that would have any shot if Trump goes down in flames? If 2/3 are set to vote him out including 20 Republicans I think the Senators only concern is their own jobs and really are not concerned with 2020 Presidential race.
If Trump makes this threat, the republicans who vote to convict will draw the ire of voters who would prefer Trump over the democrat candidate. It makes their re-elections a bit harder.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:55 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo View Post
If the republicans in the senate urge him to resign because they have decided to vote for conviction, what does Trump have to lose by making such a threat to run a write in campaign?
A lot of time, effort and money.

You know damned well a large number of write-in votes are going to be written off from the get-go because of clerical errors and the like from voters being unable to follow correct write-in procedures.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:55 PM   #10
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Originally Posted by Shields68 View Post
I am guessing a guy who has upset 1/2 the country and runs a lot of golf and hotel businesses probably does not want to go after the other 1/2 of the country. If he losses 20 Republicans he might as well walk away by saying I am done, worth 10 billion and do not need another 4 years.
You moved away from the subject of the thread which is what should Trump do to maximize his chances of remaining president. If the game is keep the presidency...how should he play it? Giving up is not a winning option.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:57 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo View Post
If Trump makes this threat, the republicans who vote to convict will draw the ire of voters who would prefer Trump over the democrat candidate. It makes their re-elections a bit harder.
Guess I do not see it that way. I only see the reason for 20+ Republicans shifting is because the base also has shifted so much that keeping Trump would draw the ire of their constituents. But if Trump goes down or losses most of the Republican base then it is going to end ugly for the Republicans in 2020 regardless and even 2022 may not be enough to recover.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:58 PM   #12
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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A lot of time, effort and money.

You know damned well a large number of write-in votes are going to be written off from the get-go because of clerical errors and the like from voters being unable to follow correct write-in procedures.
Trump won't win a write in campaign. His supporters could write in the Mickey Mouse and it has the same effect. More total votes for the democrat candidate. What this strategy is attempting to do is force the Senate republicans to decide between a possible President Trump and for sure President Democrat.

Enough Trump supporters would write his name in knowing he has no chance just to voice their support for him.
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Old 09-27-2019, 03:01 PM   #13
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You moved away from the subject of the thread which is what should Trump do to maximize his chances of remaining president. If the game is keep the presidency...how should he play it? Giving up is not a winning option.
Trump only needs to keep the vast majority of Republicans behind him. So to keep the message that this is a political stunt by the Democrats.
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Old 09-27-2019, 03:04 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo View Post
Trump won't win a write in campaign. His supporters could write in the Mickey Mouse and it has the same effect. More total votes for the democrat candidate. What this strategy is attempting to do is force the Senate republicans to decide between a President Trump and President Democrat.

Enough Trump supporters would write his name in knowing he has no chance just to voice their support for him.
Well you're thinking about this very... well... like thinking strapping two Rolls Royce turbofans and wings to a school bus is going to get you a usable passenger airplane.


If Trump wanted to make a Westminster-esque parliamentary political move by forcing the Senate to fall in line, he'd be better off threatening to switch party identification to an established one willing to let him hang their banners and promise to campaign hard against any sitting GOP senators in tossup and weak GOP-lean states by propping up downticket candidates on the party he jumped to.
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Old 09-27-2019, 03:12 PM   #15
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Well you're thinking about this very... well... like thinking strapping two Rolls Royce turbofans and wings to a school bus is going to get you a usable passenger airplane.


If Trump wanted to make a Westminster-esque parliamentary political move by forcing the Senate to fall in line, he'd be better off threatening to switch party identification to an established one willing to let him hang their banners and promise to campaign hard against any sitting GOP senators in tossup and weak GOP-lean states by propping up downticket candidates on the party he jumped to.
I don't know if it would be better, but I think that is a reasonable threat/move for him to make. I also think Sheilds68 is correct that Trump needs to continue to drum the message this a political stunt by the democrats.
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