Chiefs Justin Houston SHOULD be traded - Page 3

kcbubb · 11:57 PM

Update 4/17:

I did not fully explain my rational for trading Houston in the original post. Houston should be traded because the Chiefs do not have history of paying big contracts. The most likely outcome of this negotiation is that we will franchise Houston for the next two years and then let him walk. This is an unacceptable outcome. The Chiefs have the opportunity to build the team for the long term rather than see our best player leave with nothing in return. I am assuming that the Chiefs won't pay a huge contract, and I am assuming that Houston will demand a huge contract. The likely outcome of those assumptions are Houston being franchised for two years and then leaving to get the big contract he desires from another team.

Houston will likely demand a better contract than JJ Watts because Suh's contract is really a lot more upfront money than JJ Watts' contract. Compare the two contracts here:
Suh: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dol...ndamukong-suh/
Watt: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/

Suh is getting about $50 million over the first two years where Watt is getting closer to $20 million over the first two years. I included the signing bonus in those totals. I believe that Watt's contract is now the minimum. In today's market, Houston should command a bigger contract than Watt based on the other free agents that have been signed. Here's a good article on the upward trending contracts. http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_...ource=infinite I do realize that Suh was a free agent while Watt was still under contract. But Watt signed with a year remaining on his deal. This is what we should have done with Houston. We should have signed him to a cheaper deal a year ago. Houston will most likely command a higher contract than Watt.

With all of this bad news, we could potentially have some luck. And we are due for some luck as Chiefs fans. We have waited for high draft picks to see them used on Tyson Jackson and Eric Berry. Maybe we could be fortunate and see some talent fall to us at 18 this year. I believe that there is a good chance that Randy Gregory could fall to 18. He was almost kicked off his team because of repeated pot use and he still made the choice to use pot to the point that he failed the drug test at the combine. This year has several good edge rushers and I think Gregory could fall to us because Fowler, Beasley, Ray and Dupree are such good prospects. Gregory had a 1.57 ten yard split at 6'5" and 240 lbs. He has 34" arms and did 24 reps on the bench press. His 3 cone is 6.79! http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ory?id=2552446 I don't think I need to talk about Gregory too much. I think most of you know that he is a great player. I don't think that Gregory will be suspended for pot use in the future. If Gregory falls to us, we should take him and trade Houston.

If we draft Gregory, I think we have to trade Houston. We should not have that many edge rushers on the roster. The young guys need to play as much as possible and we don't need to wrap that much $$$ in one position. The value of two first round picks for Houston with Houston receiving the type of contract that he will likely command is very unlikely. We will have to take less. I have a scenario that I believe is possible and that I believe could work for us. We could trade Houston to the Colts for their 29th pick this year, 2nd & 4th round picks in 2016 and their center, Jonotthan Harrison. With the 29th pick, we should take Jalen Collins. His ability best fits our bump and run style of defense. A CB like Collins should transition quickly to our defense because of the lack of complexity.

Harrison started 10 games for the Colts last year. You can read about him here. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profil...son?id=2543578 Here's another review of Harrison. http://coltsacademy.com/?p=3743 His run blocking ability has me salivating. I don't consider Harrison a huge value, but he does fit Reid's mauler type and hopefully he can improve in pass blocking. He's a cheap addition with a cost of about $500k per year. He can provide starting experience and if we can help him in the passing game with our improved guard play because of Grubbs, he could be a suitable center for us. The Colts can afford to trade him because they have Holmes returning from injury. Holmes is the likely starter. The Colts also have the cap room to sign Houston to a strong contract if they cut either Erik Walden or Robert Mathis. Mathis was injured last year, and if he doesn't get healthy, he could be cut anyway. The Colts are in position to make a superbowl run with Houston on their team.

The Chiefs would obtain 4 players for Houston with this trade and trading Houston makes picking Gregory at 18 fit. I think this trade is possible because of the assumption that Gregory falls and a top CB like Jalen Collins is available when the Colts pick. Harrison provides us with a potential starter at Center. For a trade to work, there has to be a willing partner. I think the Colts would be a willing partner under these assumptions. And we need to trade Houston since it is likely that he will only be here for two more years. The Chiefs would have time to make the trade with the Colts after picking Gregory.

I still believe #1, #2 and #5 from my original post below still apply.

Original post from 3/12 below:

The Chiefs should trade Houston to the Jags for their 2nd round pick this year and their first round pick in 2016.

The Chiefs should do this bc:

1. Our roster does not have enough talent to make a run at the Super Bowl. Most position groups on the Chiefs roster are aging, average or below average. If we resign Houston to a JJ Watt level contract, we will mortgage our future and prohibit the rebuilding of our roster. We will have cap problems for years to come and this will limit our future potential to resign quality players and seek essential free agents.

2. The Broncos have a Super Bowl roster but this roster is aging rapidly. The Broncos are the favorites for the AFC west this year but with an aging roster and with future cap restraints the Chiefs should build for future dominance in 2016 and beyond.

3. Our 18th pick does not fit our biggest needs in 2015. We need to draft an OL early but the 18th pick is too high to draft an OL. The Chiefs should draft Bud Dupree with the 18th pick. He is a freak. Has anyone ever had a 42" vertical at 269 lbs? Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/...ree?id=2552289 He reminds me of Poe in that he is a freak with limited stats, but he's a worker with good character. Hali and Ford could start with Dupree rotating in and providing competition.

The second pick from the Jags allows us to take Cameron Erving, who is the most versatile player in this draft on the OL. He has experience at C, G & T. He is the highest rated C, but has the athletic ability and length to kick outside. Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ing?id=2552240

4. This gives us a first round pick in 2016 that could likely be a high pick. We would enter 2016 with a ton picks and have a real opportunity to build our roster and possibly select our QBOTF. We also will have the cap room to resign valuable players like Poe and etc. The future would be extremely bright in KC with all of those picks!

5. Houston scares me a little in that he could be another free agent that signs a big contract but doesn't produce. We just did that with Bowe. I'd rather move forward with multiple picks and give us a better chance of getting a Super Bowl in the future. Plus, we have Hali that can temporarily fill the void. Dee Ford needs to play also. You don't spend a first round pick on a non QB to let them sit the bench.

In summary, this is an exception to the rule of resigning a quality player at an important position. We have starters at the position. Our roster needs to be rebuilt. The draft favors this trade with value in Dupree rather than OL at 18. We get two #1s in 2016, and there is always the possibility that Houston doesn't produce after the big contract.

BigChiefFan · 03-12-2015, 09:48 AM

It could be a kid. Go easy on him.

**BossChief** · 03-12-2015, 09:50 AM

Don't smoke crack

suzzer99 · 03-12-2015, 09:50 AM

Strongside · 03-12-2015, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

It could be a kid. Go easy on him.

Let's say he joined when he was seven. That was in 2008. OP is now 14.

**** him.

**Meatloaf** · 03-12-2015, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

It could be a kid. Go easy on him.

HoneyBadger · 03-12-2015, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

It could be a kid. Go easy on him.

He needs to learn early in life to not be a dumbass

kcbubb · 03-12-2015, 09:55 AM

Our OL is terrible. Sean Smith is probably our best DB. Berry is gone. DJ has been hurt. Bowe is gone. Our WRs are below average even with Maclin. Our QB is average.

This is not a strong roster. We have the opportunity to build a young team with all these pics in 2016. And we have capable starters in ford in Hali. Ford needs to play.

**Mr. Kotter** · 03-12-2015, 09:58 AM

Seriously?

PhillyChiefFan · 03-12-2015, 09:58 AM

Dante84 · 03-12-2015, 10:02 AM

Why the **** wouldn't we take this years first and next years second from them???

kcbubb · 03-12-2015, 10:03 AM

The timing is perfect to take a QB high in 2016 also. Alex Smith's contract would be nearing the end and the QB could sit a year or play right away. Alex could be traded or cut. The Jags pick could be high which would give us a shot at an elite QB.

Hootie · 03-12-2015, 10:03 AM

BossChief is going to hire kcbubb as his assistant to the GM when the Chiefs finally hire him

Dante84 · 03-12-2015, 10:04 AM

Their 1st is high now.

With their additions and Houston, it will likely be a later pick.

Shitty return for the chiefs.

kcbubb · 03-12-2015, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DA_T_84

Why the **** wouldn't we take this years first and next years second from them???

They wouldn't give it. They need a pass rusher and can't get one in round 2. There are great pass rushers at the top, which meets a need for them. I thought about the chiefs trading with the colts for 2 1sts but the high first round pick of the jags in 2016 is worth more. The colts will pick late in 2016, especially with Houston.

I'd rather have the jags 2nd this year and first next year than the colts two firsts. Bc the jags 1st pick should be pretty high in 2016.

**BigMeatballDave** · 03-12-2015, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb

The Jags have a ton of cap room. We don't.

Chiefs will have plenty next year.

03-12-2015, 09:33 AM
kcbubb Veteran Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $6116719	Justin Houston SHOULD be traded Update 4/17: I did not fully explain my rational for trading Houston in the original post. Houston should be traded because the Chiefs do not have history of paying big contracts. The most likely outcome of this negotiation is that we will franchise Houston for the next two years and then let him walk. This is an unacceptable outcome. The Chiefs have the opportunity to build the team for the long term rather than see our best player leave with nothing in return. I am assuming that the Chiefs won't pay a huge contract, and I am assuming that Houston will demand a huge contract. The likely outcome of those assumptions are Houston being franchised for two years and then leaving to get the big contract he desires from another team. Houston will likely demand a better contract than JJ Watts because Suh's contract is really a lot more upfront money than JJ Watts' contract. Compare the two contracts here: Suh: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dol...ndamukong-suh/ Watt: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/ Suh is getting about $50 million over the first two years where Watt is getting closer to $20 million over the first two years. I included the signing bonus in those totals. I believe that Watt's contract is now the minimum. In today's market, Houston should command a bigger contract than Watt based on the other free agents that have been signed. Here's a good article on the upward trending contracts. http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_...ource=infinite I do realize that Suh was a free agent while Watt was still under contract. But Watt signed with a year remaining on his deal. This is what we should have done with Houston. We should have signed him to a cheaper deal a year ago. Houston will most likely command a higher contract than Watt. With all of this bad news, we could potentially have some luck. And we are due for some luck as Chiefs fans. We have waited for high draft picks to see them used on Tyson Jackson and Eric Berry. Maybe we could be fortunate and see some talent fall to us at 18 this year. I believe that there is a good chance that Randy Gregory could fall to 18. He was almost kicked off his team because of repeated pot use and he still made the choice to use pot to the point that he failed the drug test at the combine. This year has several good edge rushers and I think Gregory could fall to us because Fowler, Beasley, Ray and Dupree are such good prospects. Gregory had a 1.57 ten yard split at 6'5" and 240 lbs. He has 34" arms and did 24 reps on the bench press. His 3 cone is 6.79! http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ory?id=2552446 I don't think I need to talk about Gregory too much. I think most of you know that he is a great player. I don't think that Gregory will be suspended for pot use in the future. If Gregory falls to us, we should take him and trade Houston. If we draft Gregory, I think we have to trade Houston. We should not have that many edge rushers on the roster. The young guys need to play as much as possible and we don't need to wrap that much $$$ in one position. The value of two first round picks for Houston with Houston receiving the type of contract that he will likely command is very unlikely. We will have to take less. I have a scenario that I believe is possible and that I believe could work for us. We could trade Houston to the Colts for their 29th pick this year, 2nd & 4th round picks in 2016 and their center, Jonotthan Harrison. With the 29th pick, we should take Jalen Collins. His ability best fits our bump and run style of defense. A CB like Collins should transition quickly to our defense because of the lack of complexity. Harrison started 10 games for the Colts last year. You can read about him here. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profil...son?id=2543578 Here's another review of Harrison. http://coltsacademy.com/?p=3743 His run blocking ability has me salivating. I don't consider Harrison a huge value, but he does fit Reid's mauler type and hopefully he can improve in pass blocking. He's a cheap addition with a cost of about $500k per year. He can provide starting experience and if we can help him in the passing game with our improved guard play because of Grubbs, he could be a suitable center for us. The Colts can afford to trade him because they have Holmes returning from injury. Holmes is the likely starter. The Colts also have the cap room to sign Houston to a strong contract if they cut either Erik Walden or Robert Mathis. Mathis was injured last year, and if he doesn't get healthy, he could be cut anyway. The Colts are in position to make a superbowl run with Houston on their team. The Chiefs would obtain 4 players for Houston with this trade and trading Houston makes picking Gregory at 18 fit. I think this trade is possible because of the assumption that Gregory falls and a top CB like Jalen Collins is available when the Colts pick. Harrison provides us with a potential starter at Center. For a trade to work, there has to be a willing partner. I think the Colts would be a willing partner under these assumptions. And we need to trade Houston since it is likely that he will only be here for two more years. The Chiefs would have time to make the trade with the Colts after picking Gregory. I still believe #1, #2 and #5 from my original post below still apply. Original post from 3/12 below: The Chiefs should trade Houston to the Jags for their 2nd round pick this year and their first round pick in 2016. The Chiefs should do this bc: 1. Our roster does not have enough talent to make a run at the Super Bowl. Most position groups on the Chiefs roster are aging, average or below average. If we resign Houston to a JJ Watt level contract, we will mortgage our future and prohibit the rebuilding of our roster. We will have cap problems for years to come and this will limit our future potential to resign quality players and seek essential free agents. 2. The Broncos have a Super Bowl roster but this roster is aging rapidly. The Broncos are the favorites for the AFC west this year but with an aging roster and with future cap restraints the Chiefs should build for future dominance in 2016 and beyond. 3. Our 18th pick does not fit our biggest needs in 2015. We need to draft an OL early but the 18th pick is too high to draft an OL. The Chiefs should draft Bud Dupree with the 18th pick. He is a freak. Has anyone ever had a 42" vertical at 269 lbs? Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/...ree?id=2552289 He reminds me of Poe in that he is a freak with limited stats, but he's a worker with good character. Hali and Ford could start with Dupree rotating in and providing competition. The second pick from the Jags allows us to take Cameron Erving, who is the most versatile player in this draft on the OL. He has experience at C, G & T. He is the highest rated C, but has the athletic ability and length to kick outside. Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ing?id=2552240 4. This gives us a first round pick in 2016 that could likely be a high pick. We would enter 2016 with a ton picks and have a real opportunity to build our roster and possibly select our QBOTF. We also will have the cap room to resign valuable players like Poe and etc. The future would be extremely bright in KC with all of those picks! 5. Houston scares me a little in that he could be another free agent that signs a big contract but doesn't produce. We just did that with Bowe. I'd rather move forward with multiple picks and give us a better chance of getting a Super Bowl in the future. Plus, we have Hali that can temporarily fill the void. Dee Ford needs to play also. You don't spend a first round pick on a non QB to let them sit the bench. In summary, this is an exception to the rule of resigning a quality player at an important position. We have starters at the position. Our roster needs to be rebuilt. The draft favors this trade with value in Dupree rather than OL at 18. We get two #1s in 2016, and there is always the possibility that Houston doesn't produce after the big contract. Last edited by kcbubb; 04-16-2015 at 11:57 PM..
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03-12-2015, 09:48 AM	#31
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03-12-2015, 09:50 AM	#32
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $1904088	Don't smoke crack
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03-12-2015, 09:50 AM	#33
suzzer99 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: L.A. Casino cash: $2994284
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03-12-2015, 09:55 AM	#37
kcbubb Veteran Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $6116719	Our OL is terrible. Sean Smith is probably our best DB. Berry is gone. DJ has been hurt. Bowe is gone. Our WRs are below average even with Maclin. Our QB is average. This is not a strong roster. We have the opportunity to build a young team with all these pics in 2016. And we have capable starters in ford in Hali. Ford needs to play.
Posts: 2,352

03-12-2015, 09:58 AM	#38
Mr. Kotter The Dude Abides Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Dakota Country Casino cash: $5905285	Seriously? __________________ "I've always said I worry about legacy and winning rings more than making money at this moment...We see what's going on around the league, but at the same time, I'll never do anything that's going to hurt us from keeping the great players around me.”
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03-12-2015, 09:58 AM	#39
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03-12-2015, 10:02 AM	#40
Dante84 Tossed Salad & Scrambled Eggs Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: ATX & OPKS Casino cash: $1811996 VARSITY	Why the **** wouldn't we take this years first and next years second from them??? __________________ ..
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03-12-2015, 10:03 AM	#41
kcbubb Veteran Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $6116719	The timing is perfect to take a QB high in 2016 also. Alex Smith's contract would be nearing the end and the QB could sit a year or play right away. Alex could be traded or cut. The Jags pick could be high which would give us a shot at an elite QB.
Posts: 2,352

03-12-2015, 10:03 AM	#42
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	BossChief is going to hire kcbubb as his assistant to the GM when the Chiefs finally hire him
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03-12-2015, 10:04 AM	#43
Dante84 Tossed Salad & Scrambled Eggs Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: ATX & OPKS Casino cash: $1811996 VARSITY	Their 1st is high now. With their additions and Houston, it will likely be a later pick. Shitty return for the chiefs. __________________ ..
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