Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

[jd1020]

They should be able to get more.

Reyes, Kelly, and Hudson would probably keep the Rays from hanging up on a deal for Archer but it likely doesnt get it done.

And Grichuk + Carlson, at the very best, doesnt get you Colome + Longoria unless the Rays are treating Longoria as a salary dump with negative value which I highly doubt.

[jd1020]

This shit is funny...

Marlins depth chart after trading the NL MVP and a guy who hit 37 HR's and 124 RBI's making his 2nd All-Star game, his first gold glove, and a silver slugger award.

http://miami.marlins.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/?c_id=mia

Yelich...

[jd1020]

Yankees potentially discussing a Frazier deal for Gerrit Cole.

According to a person with knowledge of the situation, the Yankees and Pirates are discussing a deal that would bring right-hander Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh and possibly would include outfielder Clint Frazier leaving The Bronx.

https://nypost.com/2017/12/14/it-may...otation-needs/

[DJ's left nut]

Poor Justin Bour.

Yelich is gonna be alright - he'll get traded soon enough. But Bour doesn't cost enough to get salary dumped and as 1b only, doesn't have the versatility or positional scarcity to demand enough in trade to force anyone's hand.

So he's almost certainly stuck there. As is Realmuto because the team can say dumb shit like "he improves our entire pitching staff" and folks will buy it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

They should be able to get more.

Reyes, Kelly, and Hudson would probably keep the Rays from hanging up on a deal for Archer but it likely doesnt get it done.

And Grichuk + Carlson, at the very best, doesnt get you Colome + Longoria unless the Rays are treating Longoria as a salary dump with negative value which I highly doubt.

Longoria SHOULD be treated as a salary dump.

He isn't even an upgrade on Gyorko at this stage of his career.

[jd1020]

He's still a 3.6 WAR player on a down year that provides very good defense at 3B with only $86M in guarantees on his contract. His yearly salary doesnt start becoming a red flag at his current offensive numbers until 2021. Someone will take that deal.

Not exactly fair to compare what he makes to Gyorko considering Gyorko doesnt even have enough accrued service time to qualify for FA and signed a 5 year deal when he was a bum with the Padres.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Longoria SHOULD be treated as a salary dump.

He isn't even an upgrade on Gyorko at this stage of his career.

owed $86 million, right? At his age....but people Down here love the guy for his hustle down here. STL could use someone other than Pham who hustles.

[BigRedChief]

Carp
Pham
Ozuna
Fowler
dejong
Longoria
Molina
Wong
P

Id like that lineup for the next couple of years.

[bdj23]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

George Brett has never struck me as anything other than an abusive, loud alcoholic. I legit despise that guy.

George Brett flat out didn't acknowledge me when i was about 8 years old and asked him for his autograph.

[duncan_idaho]

If Longoria is a 2-win player on average the rest of that deal (10 WAR over the next five years), his contract is neutral value. Anything more than that, and you're in surplus territory. Seems like a safe and smart bet to me, especially if in taking him you can lower the acquisition cost for other pieces.

I know he and Gyorko had similar value last year, but that was in a career year for Gyorko and a meh year for Longo.


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[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If Longoria is a 2-win player on average the rest of that deal (10 WAR over the next five years), his contract is neutral value. Anything more than that, and you're in surplus territory. Seems like a safe and smart bet to me, especially if in taking him you can lower the acquisition cost for other pieces.

I know he and Gyorko had similar value last year, but that was in a career year for Gyorko and a meh year for Longo.


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So you think the Rays should have took that deal because it was fair? Or the Cardinals would have won that trade based on value?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

So you think the Rays should have took that deal because it was fair? Or the Cardinals would have won that trade based on value?

The one with Reyes, Kelly, Grichuk, etc going to Longoria, Archer and Colome?

No, I wouldn't have taken that if I were the Rays. That's what I'd want for Archer by himself. They're basically giving Colome and Longo away for free in that deal.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

He's still a 3.6 WAR player on a down year that provides very good defense at 3B with only $86M in guarantees on his contract. His yearly salary doesnt start becoming a red flag at his current offensive numbers until 2021. Someone will take that deal.

Not exactly fair to compare what he makes to Gyorko considering Gyorko doesnt even have enough accrued service time to qualify for FA and signed a 5 year deal when he was a bum with the Padres.

He's a 2.5 fWAR player and fWAR doesn't overweight iffy defensive win shares like bWAR does (good ol' bWAR; made Jason Heyward $100 million).

His OBP has declined to well below average and his power has been falling off for years with the notable exception of 2016. He can't blame health so when you look at a 4-5 year trend of declining power/OBP you're seeing age-related decline.

So you can look at good ol' aging curves at that point. Over the 5 years he's guaranteed on his present deal, he's likely to generate somewhere in the area of 8-10 wins.

On the high side, it makes him worth pretty much exactly his contract. On the low side he's not. In either event, you're in the margins either way. He has next to no surplus value when his contract is taken into account. Some team might throw a nominal asset the Rays way, but ultimately the Rays are going to have to make the same choice the Marlins did but on a lesser scale - talent or salary relief.

If they want to unload his entire deal, they won't get much back in return for him at all.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If Longoria is a 2-win player on average the rest of that deal (10 WAR over the next five years), his contract is neutral value. Anything more than that, and you're in surplus territory. Seems like a safe and smart bet to me, especially if in taking him you can lower the acquisition cost for other pieces.

I know he and Gyorko had similar value last year, but that was in a career year for Gyorko and a meh year for Longo.


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That was a prime year for Gyorko and the first year of the 'exit' period of Longoria's prime as well as another data point establishing an increasingly poor trend.

Moreover, Gyorko demonstrated a new skill - premier defense at 3b. That's enormous and suggests a new floor for him.

Where Longoria is an improvement on Gyorko is definitely durability. But the Cardinals have a backup plan for Gyorko anyway and that's the Matt Carpenter/Jose Martinez plan. You essentially shell-game Martinez for Gyorko through a defensive shift if Gyorko gets hurt.

Give Jedd 400 ABs and I think he gives you 2.5 wins. Give Jose the other 200 and I think he gives you 1-1.5. That combination of Gyorko and Martinez is worth 3.5-4.5 wins; maybe a little more fudge either direction given the volatility in Martinez's projections.

But there's no need - none at all - for the Cardinals to consider Evan Longoria. He'd be an expensive and completely unnecessary addition, IMO.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Carp
Ozuna
Fowler
dejong
Longoria
Molina
Wong
P

Id like that lineup for the next couple of years.

Not bad