Football Jaye Howard or Sean Smith - Page 9

kccrow · 01-20-2016, 08:49 PM

Which would you sign.

For the sake of argument, let's assume the following contracts (without getting into the details too much):

Sean Smith gets a 5 year, 52.5 million deal (10.5 per). First year cap hit is 6.6 m to fit cap constraints. Roughly on par with Byron Maxwell's deal (5th highest for a CB).

Jaye Howard gets a 4 year, 36 million deal (9.0 per). First year cap hit is 6.6 m to fit cap constraints. Roughly on par with Derek Wolfe's and Jurrell Casey's deals (6th and 7th highest for 3-4 DE).

kccrow · 01-22-2016, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

For the sake of conversation, here's Earl Thomas' deal.

All 3 deals TOGETHER would cost us 20m in cap space and would leave us 17m for everyone else.

Estimated cap is $150 million. I personally believe cap growth won't fall off as much as OTC has been estimating, and would probably expect $152 million.

The Chiefs have a current cap charge of $122,201,389, leaving them available cap space of $27,798,611 using OTC's estimate.

The Chiefs have potential rollover, according to OTC, of $2,951,340. I do question the accuracy of this given the recent contract extensions and the fact that prorated bonus money from those extensions will have dug into this figure. I'd expect about half of this number in reality, but we'll roll on with it. That would give the Chiefs available space of $30,749,951.

I'd expect a range of $28.9 to $32.7 million in space but I'd find it doubtful they'll reach anywhere near the $37+ you've been stating although its possible if NFL revenues are much higher than expected.

The theory is, yes, you can re-sign all of them if the Chiefs can structure contracts nicely OR they don't re-sign some older players like Hali and DJ.

For sake of argument, I'm going to use OTC's estimated 2016 cap space number of $30.75 million in this post.

First, take off approximately $7 million for your draft class. Yes, it may be a little less, but certainly at least 6 million. The Chiefs almost never put themselves in a position where they are right up against the cap, and usually maintain a reserve space of $2 million for in-season moves. This now reduces your available space for signing free agents to $21.75 million.

Eric Berry's contract will likely be in the 5 year 48 million range, at the top of the safety spectrum and, so far as I can see, his minimum first year hit will be in the $6.5 million range. You now have $15.25 million.

Sean Smith's contract will likely be at least 4 years and in the 40-42 million range given he's considered one of the better corners in football. In the OP I suspected 5 years and 52 million, which doesn't really change the first year hit at all. Similar to Berry, I see his minimum first year hit in the $6.5 million range. You now have $8.75 million.

Jaye Howard's contract will also be at least 4 years and given recent, similar, defensive line contracts, should be in the 36 million range. Like Berry and Smith, his first year minimum cap hit is likely in the $6-6.5 million range. You now have $2.5 million.

Keep in mind that all of these contracts will balloon to at least 9 million in year 2, and in the 10-11 million per range after that. You also have Dontari Poe to sign next offseason, but you'll be getting relief from Jamaal Charles in a couple of seasons. Either way, signing all of these guys to big deals are going to keep you up against the cap in the future as Jeremy Maclin's deal gets into 8 figures and so forth.

Now, your $2.5 million remaining can sign you 4 of your ERFA's at the minimum of $600k each (say West, Sorensen, Williams, and King). You cannot retain any of Hali, Johnson, Allen, Branch, Abdullah, DeVito, Avant, Zombo, Moses, and so on and so forth.

So yes, while $30 million seems like a lot of money (and it is), you're not going to retain 3 high profile free agents AND everyone else. You can keep 2 out of 3 and everyone else, for the most part. IF the cap is a bit higher and closer to my expectation AND the Chiefs put themselves up against the cap, you can probably keep DJ in this scenario ($4 million per).

Mr. Laz · 01-22-2016, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragged Robin

lol as if he's mainly a DE when they're in the 3-4, base these days is nickel where you put essentially 4-3 DE talent on the line like Watt. Also, you said it yourself, ALL BY HIMSELF. Your blind ass homerism is overrating Howard.

You have not really watched Howard play.

Mr. Laz · 01-22-2016, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

If the front 7 and Sutton are doing their jobs, we shouldn't need all of the DBs to be high-paid studs. Peters is Peters. Gaines has a great work ethic and will return well enough. They drafted Nelson in rd 3. Draft an early CB, and you should have what you need at the position... along with Parker if absolutely needed.

What in the world makes you think Sutton is a good enough strategist to think he doesn't need a stud secondary to give his front 4 time to get there?

Sutton rushes 4, man's up on the outside,zone in the middle type guy.

sometimes he man's up on the inside but still

That's it, that is sutton.

No front 4 can get there in 2.5 seconds EVERY dam time. Sutton is too scare or doesn't know how to blitz without getting his ass toasted.

He has to pretty much have a good everything or he's ****ed.

Since Sutton has been here, he as lost a few pieces with disastrous effect.

Without marcus peters - defense sucks
without sean smith - defense sucks
without DJ - run defense sucks
without Houston - pass rush disappears (Ford had the best game of his career once to help against the chargers)
without Hali - pass rush is seriously weakened

Sutton has repeatedly failed to be able to cover for a weakness.

kccrow · 01-22-2016, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

What in the world makes you think Sutton is a good enough strategist to think he doesn't need a stud secondary to give his front 4 time to get there?

Sutton rushes 4, man's up on the outside,zone in the middle type guy.

sometimes he man's up on the inside but still

That's it, that is sutton.

No front 4 can get there in 2.5 seconds EVERY dam time. Sutton is too scare or doesn't know how to blitz without getting his ass toasted.

He has to pretty much have a good everything or he's ****ed.

Since Sutton has been here, he as lost a few pieces with disastrous effect.

Without marcus peters - defense sucks
without sean smith - defense sucks
without DJ - run defense sucks
without Houston - pass rush disappears (Ford had the best game of his career once to help against the chargers)
without Hali - pass rush is seriously weakened

Sutton has repeatedly failed to be able to cover for a weakness.

That's because he is a weakness, as is everyone ever associated with Ryan's defense. Their D sucks unless they have all-everythings at every critical position.

Sandy Vagina · 01-22-2016, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

What in the world makes you think Sutton is a good enough strategist to think he doesn't need a stud secondary to give his front 4 time to get there?

Sutton has repeatedly failed to be able to cover for a weakness.

So, what you are saying is.. if we do not re-sign Sean and Eric, then we are truly screwed.. because our DC is teh shits.. so in order to have real success on D.. we must keep every secondary player, no matter the cost.

Just waking up, so sorry if your words are a bit unclear and thereby misinterpreted here.

?

Mr. Laz · 01-22-2016, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

So, what you are saying is.. if we do not re-sign Sean and Eric, then we are truly screwed.. because our DC is teh shits.. so in order to have real success on D.. we must keep every secondary player, no matter the cost.

Just waking up, so sorry if your words are a bit unclear and thereby misinterpreted here.

?

I don't know that keeping Eric Berry being a crucial key to Sutton's success but he does need a pretty talented group to be a decent DC.

front 4 that can generate pass rush by themselves
2 corners that can man-to-man on the outside

Sutton has not looked worth a dam without these

*DJ was key in our run defense but i don't know if he is irreplaceable.

All DCs need talent but Sutton seems to all or nothing. If he doesn't have certain things he is crap. If his initial plan doesn't work, he has no idea what to do. His adjustments seem to occur from season to season more than quarter to quarter.

Chiefnj2 · 01-22-2016, 03:57 PM

Laz loves bashing Sutton even though the defense has been carrying the offense and has finished in the top 5 in points against all three years.

Mr. Laz · 01-22-2016, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Laz loves bashing Sutton even though the defense has been carrying the offense and has finished in the top 5 in points against all three years.

Talk all the shit you want but if your DC takes the field with that many pro bowler level players and still can't adapt his scheme a single iota then he's not very good.

Hali
Houston
Sean Smith
Marcus Peters
DJ
Berry
Poe
Howard(dam close)

Mauga,Parker,abdullah are the only starters that aren't pro bowl type guys.

O.city · 01-22-2016, 09:45 PM

He didnt have to adapt his scheme, it was a top 5 defense

**New World Order** · 01-22-2016, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

He didnt have to adapt his scheme, it was a top 5 defense

Not against legit offenses.

Brock · 01-22-2016, 09:56 PM

Sutton never brings the team back from behind.

Jiu Jitsu Jon · 01-23-2016, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Weddle might be.

I doubt Smith will.

Why not? Raiders are trending upward and have more cap space.

Mr. Laz · 01-23-2016, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

He didnt have to adapt his scheme, it was a top 5 defense

Tom Brady farts in your general direction.

RunKC · 01-23-2016, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

Tom Brady farts in your general direction.

Brady made some amazing throws that no defense can stop. How often do you see Gronk catch TD's like that against elite defenses? The Edelman low catch on Smith was just amazing ball placement.

It's Tom Brady man. The guy scored 3 TD's on Denver's #1 D with none of his WR's healthy.

Mr. Laz · 01-23-2016, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Brady made some amazing throws that no defense can stop. How often do you see Gronk catch TD's like that against elite defenses? The Edelman low catch on Smith was just amazing ball placement.

It's Tom Brady man. The guy scored 3 TD's on Denver's #1 D with none of his WR's healthy.

So then there was no reason for Sutton to try?

just slow play it to minimize points so that we didn't get embarrassed

Why the **** did we bother going to the game then?

So before we were just waiting until Manning quit so we could have a chance. Now we are going to wait until Brady quits.

Don't worry about winning until 2020 or so?

View Poll Results: Who do you sign
Sean Smith, CB	88	58.28%
Jaye Howard, DE	63	41.72%
Voters: 151. You may not vote on this poll

01-20-2016, 08:49 PM
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3267078	Jaye Howard or Sean Smith Which would you sign. For the sake of argument, let's assume the following contracts (without getting into the details too much): Sean Smith gets a 5 year, 52.5 million deal (10.5 per). First year cap hit is 6.6 m to fit cap constraints. Roughly on par with Byron Maxwell's deal (5th highest for a CB). Jaye Howard gets a 4 year, 36 million deal (9.0 per). First year cap hit is 6.6 m to fit cap constraints. Roughly on par with Derek Wolfe's and Jurrell Casey's deals (6th and 7th highest for 3-4 DE).
Posts: 12,615

01-22-2016, 03:57 PM	#127
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $7883688	Laz loves bashing Sutton even though the defense has been carrying the offense and has finished in the top 5 in points against all three years. __________________ Mismanaging the clock.
Posts: 22,381

01-22-2016, 09:45 PM	#129
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2774064	He didnt have to adapt his scheme, it was a top 5 defense
Posts: 81,205

01-22-2016, 09:56 PM	#131
Brock Say hello to my little friend Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Larryville Casino cash: $9598422	Sutton never brings the team back from behind.
Posts: 47,314