Is 2016 a breaking point for this team?

[RealSNR]

I was messing around on Rotoworld looking at how long we've got guys under contract. In terms of losing our own players, the 2014 free agency season is basically finished. All we have left is Kendrick Lewis, and it's apparent that we're not bringing him back. So I wanted to see how we were doing for 2015. It's not that good, but it's known from the most recent press conference that Dorsey is currently talking through and working on extensions with Alex Smith and Justin Houston.

Let's take Direckshun's assumptions that he made in his most recent mock draft:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

1. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 6 years, $90m (when you break the numbers down, it will actually break down to 4 years, $60m, with something like $35m guaranteed), and S Eric Berry 6 years, $45m ($23m guaranteed). They will extend Justin Houston at some point during the 2015 season.

2. The Chiefs let walk: WR Kyle Williams, S Kendrick Lewis

3. The Chiefs sign WR/KR Jacoby Ford (Raiders) to a 1 year, $1m deal.

These are the Chiefs who played snaps for the team last year who will become free agents in 2015:

Allen Bailey
Thomas Gafford
Junior Hemingway (Exclusive rights FA)
Rodney Hudson
Rishaw Johnson (RFA)
Josh Martin (Exclusive rights FA)
Dezman Moses (RFA)
Ron Parker
Anthony Sherman

That's nothing to shake a stick at, but this group also doesn't have anybody particularly pertinent on it who would require a lot of money. A guy like Anthony Sherman might ask for a contract more expensive than we're willing to offer, so I think he would walk. Rodney Hudson is supposedly going to be replaced by Eric Kush very soon, so I guess he walks as well. Nobody knows if Hemingway, Martin, and Moses will even be on the team next year. That basically leaves us with Bailey, Gafford, Johnson, and Parker. It would be great to keep any of those players, and they should all be pretty cheap with the possible exception of Bailey.

Direckshun's plan sets us up pretty well into 2015. We'd be spending barely any money to keep our own players. Really, the only guy I can see as a MUST keep is Gafford, and that should be a cheap deal.

Now what about 2016?

Jeff Allen
Donnie Avery
Tyler Bray (RFA)
Jamaal Charles
Chase Daniel
Mike DeVito
Cyrus Gray
Tamba Hali
Jaye Howard
AJ Jenkins
Derrick Johnson
Joe Mays
Sean McGrath
Dontari Poe
Sean Smith
Donald Stephenson
Rokevious Watkins
Frank Zombo

Ehhhhhhhhghggghhhhhh........

You can assume that Charles, DeVito, Hali, and DJ will be much older and feebler at this point, but they're still critical cogs to how this team currently runs. Yes, we'll (hopefully) be acquiring more playmakers through the draft, and yes, there will be some players currently on the team who break out into solid starting players and beyond. But that's still a lot of dudes. Even if you want to argue that current starters like Allen, Avery, Fasano, and Smith would hopefully be replaced by fresher and better players, that means we're still devoting a lot of resources to getting this team "right" instead of planning for the future.

We'll basically be depending on getting 3-4 starters per draft in 2014 and 2015. That's kind of a lot to expect.

I would hope that we could keep Charles around beyond 2016 if he still has gas left for not all that much money. Same goes for DJ. Hali may wind up being a cap casualty before then. We're looking at two starters on the offensive line (Stephenson and Allen) who will need new deals or replacements. Dontari Poe. ****. Dontari Poe. He's a big man, and he'll need a big deal. Daniel and Bray... I mean, who ****ing cares, right? But we still will likely need to spend draft stock on replacements in some way. We need as many draft picks as we can get these next two years. And I'm even looking at Mays, Jenkins, DeVito...

Basically, the stakes are pretty ****ing high by the time we get to 2016. If Dorsey does his homework these next two years, we'll be pretty okay, I think. If he doesn't...

Blow up the ship? Start again?

[J Diddy]

Originally Posted by SNR

I'll bet Dorsey doesn't give two shits about 2016. He's probably like, "Pssshhh... I don't need to plan for the future or worry about what's going to be available down the road when I make my draft picks and free agent signings in 2014."

Oh wait, actually.... no. Scratch that. It's the opposite of that.

You lose, fartlicker

How does one lick a fart?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Here's a huge factor that isn't being talked about, though.

This draft class is so stacked that I'm betting a lot of vets are cut after the draft and going into training camp because teams will find better players to fill their spots in the draft. Maybe we will be more active in that round of value priced free agents.

Doesn't change the fact that the Chiefs are so incredibly cap strapped this year they aren't willing to make moves for legitimate starter-caliber players.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I think this year is gonna surprise a lot of people.

We basically got nothing out of the 2013 draft class in its rookie year, due to injuries and some of them are poised to make an impact in 2014/2015

Fisher dealt with shoulder and thumb injuries all year
Kelce was lost to IR
Knile Davis showed flashes of top end ability
Commings was injury plagued
Catapano was red shirted

If 2-3 of those guys start to tap into their potential going forward, that will factor into the success of the 2015/16 seasons big time.

Oh it's gonna surprise people alright.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

Did they not plug the gaps and add depth in free agency last year?

They traded for Alex Smith and signed Sean Smith almost immediately. They've done nothing remotely like that this year.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

No, I was saying you add depth and plug gaps in free agency and get your studs in the draft. D

Longer control and cheaper

Alex Smith.

[Jimmya]

We have to have an awesome draft in order to compete next year.

[Mecca]

You know I looked at the list of players he made...the only player I see that should get paid is Poe aside from Houston and possibly Berry.

But most of the name guys there will be at an age where you walk away.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

They traded for Alex Smith and signed Sean Smith almost immediately. They've done nothing remotely like that this year.

As opposed to?

Had they not made the smith deal, we are likely still looking for a qb and drafting in the top 10.

They've done nothin like that this offseason excuse they didnt have to or need to or apparently, they didn't think they needed too. It's not as if Alex smith is at the same age stage as manning where you know you have 2 years max.

They must think the guys we have and are paying big money to are going to further develop in this system, specifically guys like bowe, Jenkins (meh) and such.

I don't necessarily agree with that part, but outside of Alex smith last year, I don't see this years free agency as that much different.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

They traded for Alex Smith and signed Sean Smith almost immediately. They've done nothing remotely like that this year.

We don't have $$$ like we did last year. We also don't have a huge need at QB either