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Old 12-26-2014, 02:58 PM  
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Fivehead Manning: least clutch QB in NFL history?

1997 regular season – Manning is dominant in his final season for the Tennessee Volunteers, passing for 36 TD, 11 INT while leading the team to 32.9 PPG in the tough SEC. The best QB in college football finishes No. 2 in the Heisman voting, behind triple-theat performer Charles Woodson.

1997 postseason – Manning produces just a single TD through three quarters and is benched in the fourth quarter as the talent-laden No. 3 Volunteers get smoked by Nebraska, 42-17. Manning completes 21 of 31 for 131 yards, a dismal 4.2 YPA. He is benched in the fourth quarter for Tee Martin, who leads a scoring drive and then leads stacked Tennessee to the national title the following season.

1999 regular season – The Colts roll through the season with a 13-3 record behind second-year phenom Manning. They score 26.4 PPG, third in the NFL.

1999 postseason – Manning completes just 45.2% of his passes with 5.4 YPA and a 62.3 rating as the Colts lose to the Titans, 19-16, playing at home in the Indy dome no less. One and done in the playoffs.

2000 regular season – Manning is brilliant (33 TD, 15 INT, 94.7 rating), while leading the Colts to 26.8 PPG (fourth) and a 10-6 record.

2000 postseason – Manning again struggles to get the ball downfield, completing just 53.1% of his passes for 194 yards, 6.1 YPA and an ordinary 82.0 rating. The Colts lose in Miami, 23-17. One and done in the playoffs.

2002 regular season – The Colts are merely ordinary on offense but go 10-6 and earn a wildcard spot behind one of the league's better defenses: 19.6 PPG (7th). They earn a cushy draw against the 9-7 AFC East champion Jets.

2002 postseason – Manning and the Colts come up lame in one of the most dismal offensive performances in modern playoff history. He completes 45.2% of his passes for 137 yards, 4.4 YPA, 0 TD, 2 INT and a 31.2 rating. The Colts are embarrassed by the 9-7 Jets, 41-0. One and done in the playoffs.

2003 regular season – The Colts explode for 27.9 PPG (2nd) on their way to a 12-4 record and the AFC South crown. Manning wins his first NFL MVP award, sharing the honor with Steve McNair.

2003 postseason – MVP Manning finally enjoys his first postseason success leading the Colts to the AFC title game with a pair of brilliant playoff performances against the Broncos and Chiefs. Then his statistical chariot turned into a pumpkin, with four picks and a 35.5 rating in an ugly 24-14 loss at New England.

2004 regular season – MVP Manning sets the football world abuzz, throwing a record 49 TD passes while leading the Colts to 522 points and a 12-4 record. Manning wins his second consecutive league MVP award.

2004 postseason – Manning is brilliant against the Broncos in the wildcard round, as he was the year before. Then the NFL MVP shits the bed against the Patriots, with just 5.7 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT and a 69.3 rating in a 20-3 loss. Compared to regular-season production, it is arguably the worst offensive performance in the history of the NFL postseason – at least to that point.

2005 regular season – The mighty Colts are teed up on both sides of the ball to win the Super Bowl: No. 2 in scoring offense (27.4 PPG); No. 2 in scoring defense (15.4), on their way to a brilliant 14-2 record and No. 1 seed in the AFC. It sets up a week rest and a home game against the 11-5 Steelers. By now you know how this story ends.

2005 postseason – Manning didn't exactly shit the bed. But after another brilliant regular season, the offense struggles with its worst performance of the year, producing just 3 points through three quarters. The Colts lose at home to the Steelers, 21-18. One and done in the playoffs.

2006 regular season – The Colts score 26.7 PPG (2nd) on their way to a 12-4 record.

2006 postseason – Proving that even a blind squirrel can find a nut, Manning throws 3 TDs and 7 INTs in four postseason games, but bumbles his way to his only Super Bowl victory behind Indy's brilliant defensive play (16.3 PPG in postseason). He posts the lowest playoff passer rating of any Super Bowl-winning quarterback.

2007 regular season – The defending champs roll through the season with a 13-3 record behind a prolific offense (28.1 PPG; 3rd) and the league's best defense (16.4 PPG; 1st).

2007 postseason – Manning passes for 402 yards and 3 TDs against the visiting Chargers. But the game turns on two costly INTs in San Diego territory at the end of the first half and at the start of the second half. His third-quarter pass was picked off at the San Diego 3, costing the team critical points in a 28-24 loss. One and done in the playoffs.

2008 regular season – The Colts go 12-4, led by a defense that's No. 7 in the NFL in scoring (18.6 PPG). They go on the road in the wildcard round, but get another gimme draw against the 8-8 AFC West champion Chargers. With foil Tom Brady out all year with an injury, the path is paved for Manning and the Colts to win their second Super Bowl.

2008 postseason – Manning doesn't shit the bed. But he hardly looks like the NFL's Most Valuable Player against the average San Diego defense. The Colts struggle to find a groove in a 23-17 loss. One and done in the playoffs.

2009 regular season – The balanced Colts go 14-2 behind a strong offense (7th in scoring) and defense (8th), and another MVP performance by Manning (33 TD, 16 INT, 99.9 rating).

2009 postseason – Manning advances to the Super Bowl for the second time in his career. The MVP has a chance to tie the game and cement his legend in the fourth quarter. Instead, his pass his picked off by Tracy Porter, who returns it 74 yards for the game-clinching score. Colts lose to the Saints, 31-17, as Manning is outplayed by Drew Brees.

2010 regular season – The Colts struggle through a 10-6 season, but it's still enough to win the AFC South. Manning throws 33 TD passes and again leads one of the best offenses in football (27.2 PPG).

2010 postseason – Manning plays well, passing for 225 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT and a 108.7 rating on 26 attempts. But his team, as usual, suddenly struggles to score points in a critical game. The Colts lose at home to the Jets, 17-16. One and done in the playoffs.

2012 regular season – Manning's first year in Denver is a great success. The Broncos are stacked on both sides of the ball (No. 2 scoring offense; No. 4 scoring defense), go 13-3 and earn the AFC's No. 1 seed.

2012 postseason – Manning threw a pick-six and an ugly Favre-esque across-his-body overtime INT to seal Denver's fate in a 38-35 loss to the Ravens. The Broncos fail to win a game in which they produced two special teams touchdowns. One and done in the playoffs.

2013 regular season – The Broncos dominate the NFL behind Manning's fifth MVP performance. He throws a record 55 TD passes while leading the first 600-point team in NFL history (606).

2013 postseason – Manning takes shitting the bed to new levels in Super Bowl XLVIII. Hell, he shit all over the floor and the walls, too. Wide-eyed Manning muffs the first snap of the game, handing the Seahawks a gift 2-0 lead. He's picked off in Seattle territory later in the first quarter, and throws a pick-six at the end of the first half.

The greatest offense in NFL history is shutout for nearly three quarters, behind Manning's worst game of the season (5.7 YPA, 73.5 rating). The Denver offense, after scoring 37.9 PPG in the regular season, is humiliated in a 43-8 loss. It is easily the worst postseason offensive performance relative to regular season success in the Super Bowl Era, replacing Manning's 2004 Colts for that dishonor.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...manning/31873/
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:11 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
I don't get this whole "Peyton's defense carried him to a Super Bowl" thing.

He played terribly against the Chiefs in the WC game. We all saw that. It was also 16-0 and the Chiefs didn't get a 1st down for like 40 minutes of that game. It was never in doubt.

After that, he played another shitty game (by Peyton's standards) in the divisional.

And then all he did was bring his team back from an 18 point 1st half deficit including orchestrating a game winning TD drive against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFCCG ...

and then, down 10 in the Super Bowl, he posts one of the most efficient games in a Super Bowl as his team controls the ball for 39 minutes against A DEFENSE SO GOOD they got Rex Grossman to a Super Bowl.

The bullshit about Peyton being carried to his only Super Bowl is just that ... bullshit.
2006 postseason – Proving that even a blind squirrel can find a nut, Manning throws 3 TDs and 7 INTs in four postseason games, but bumbles his way to his only Super Bowl victory behind Indy's brilliant defensive play (16.3 PPG in postseason). He posts the lowest playoff passer rating of any Super Bowl-winning quarterback.

He was carried, period.
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:16 PM   #47
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ESPN goes back to 2006 with Total QBR.

Here are Peyton and Tom in every postseason since 2006 with QBR and rankings out of the postseason QB's:


2006:

Peyton 60.6 (1)
Tom 60.2 (2)

2007:

Peyton 77.4 (1)
Tom 61.5 (5)

2008:

Peyton 75.4 (1)
Tom N/A

2009:

Peyton 79.9 (3)
Tom 4.2 (12/last)

2010:

Peyton 74.3 (3)
Tom 8.7 (10)

2011:

Peyton N/A
Tom 74.8 (4)

2012:

Peyton 56.4 (8)
Tom 57.3 (7)

2013:

Peyton 77.4 (2)
Tom 70.0 (6)

Just another stat that clearly shows Peyton Manning is a huge postseason choker and Tom Brady is a clutch postseason magician.
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:19 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoChargers View Post
2006 postseason – Proving that even a blind squirrel can find a nut, Manning throws 3 TDs and 7 INTs in four postseason games, but bumbles his way to his only Super Bowl victory behind Indy's brilliant defensive play (16.3 PPG in postseason). He posts the lowest playoff passer rating of any Super Bowl-winning quarterback.

He was carried, period.
Well, you're just wrong.

I can't imagine a QB down 21-3 against Tom Brady in the AFCCG was carried to the Super Bowl.

And I can't imagine a QB, who dominates the T.O.P. at a clip of 38:04 - 21:56 in the Super Bowl, wins said MVP, and rallies back from down 8 was "carried" to the Super Bowl win playing against a defense SO GOOD they carried Rex Grossman to a Super Bowl.

Anything else, skippy?
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:20 PM   #49
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TD:INT ratio means absolutely nothing, by the way.

Not a thing.

It is totally meaningless how a team scores offensively as long as they are scoring.

Peyton Manning's QBR in that postseason was the same QBR Tom Brady posted in the postseason in 2007 playing with the greatest offense ever (to that point).
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:21 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
ESPN goes back to 2006 with Total QBR.

Here are Peyton and Tom in every postseason since 2006 with QBR and rankings out of the postseason QB's:


2006:

Peyton 60.6 (1)
Tom 60.2 (2)

2007:

Peyton 77.4 (1)
Tom 61.5 (5)

2008:

Peyton 75.4 (1)
Tom N/A

2009:

Peyton 79.9 (3)
Tom 4.2 (12/last)

2010:

Peyton 74.3 (3)
Tom 8.7 (10)

2011:

Peyton N/A
Tom 74.8 (4)

2012:

Peyton 56.4 (8)
Tom 57.3 (7)

2013:

Peyton 77.4 (2)
Tom 70.0 (6)

Just another stat that clearly shows Peyton Manning is a huge postseason choker and Tom Brady is a clutch postseason magician.
Another epic fail of an argument. ESPN recalculated that stat years ago to remove the part of the formula that included clutch (high-leverage) situations. So no, that stat by itself doesn't do shit to prove who's more clutch.
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:21 PM   #51
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Peyton has much better regular season stats, better postseason stats, and has statistically outplayed Brady in every postseason sans 1 since 2006 including being 2-0 in heads up matches yet PEYTON CHOKES and TOM IS CLUTCH

So ridiculous.
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:22 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by GoChargers View Post
Another epic fail of an argument. ESPN recalculated that stat years ago to remove the part of the formula that included clutch (high-leverage) situations. So no, that stat by itself doesn't do shit to prove who's more clutch.
Wrong.

Read the glossary at the end.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/2013/seasontype/3

TOTAL EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added.

anything else, junior?
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:24 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
Peyton has much better regular season stats, better postseason stats, and has statistically outplayed Brady in every postseason sans 1 since 2006 including being 2-0 in heads up matches yet PEYTON CHOKES and TOM IS CLUTCH

So ridiculous.
What's ridiculous is your obsession with Brady. I don't care who people compare Fivehead to, having that many one-and-dones, that many offensive failures in big games, that many picks and pick-sixes in clutch moments means he's a choker.
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:24 PM   #54
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I actually read that wrong. They all include clutch-weighted stats:

* Season Leaders: On pace for 250 action plays.
* All-time data reflects 2006 onwards.
PASS EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes.
SACK EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added (lost) on sacks.
PEN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on penalties.
TOTAL EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added.
ACT PLAYS: Plays on which the QB has a non-zero expected points contribution. Includes most plays that are not handoffs.
QB PAR: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of a quarterback who plays very rarely and is on the fringe of the NFL.
QB PAA: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback.
TOTAL QBR: Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale.

So, since 2006, Peyton Manning has been the clutchest QB in the postseason 3 times to Tom's 0 and has been rated more clutch every single postseason except for 1, when Tom finished 7th and Peyton 8th.

Wow.

The stats are really pointing in Tom's direction.
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:25 PM   #55
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would you like the rest of my rape stick to be inserted or would you like me to just keep it at half way?
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:27 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
Wrong.

Read the glossary at the end.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/2013/seasontype/3

TOTAL EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added.

anything else, junior?
"My sense is that Total QBR is underutilized because (1) ESPN haters hate it because it’s an ESPN statistic, (2) it’s proprietary, and (3) analytics types disliked it because of the (now-eliminated) clutch rating."

http://www.footballperspective.com/i...rterback-play/
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:28 PM   #57
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Dude, I just linked you to the ****ing ESPN site where it explains how QBR is calculated:

Quote:
* Season Leaders: On pace for 250 action plays.
* All-time data reflects 2006 onwards.
PASS EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes.
SACK EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added (lost) on sacks.
PEN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on penalties.
TOTAL EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added.
ACT PLAYS: Plays on which the QB has a non-zero expected points contribution. Includes most plays that are not handoffs.
QB PAR: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of a quarterback who plays very rarely and is on the fringe of the NFL.
QB PAA: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback.
TOTAL QBR: Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale.
I'm just gonna shove the whole thing in.
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:29 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
I actually read that wrong. They all include clutch-weighted stats:

* Season Leaders: On pace for 250 action plays.
* All-time data reflects 2006 onwards.
PASS EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes.
SACK EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added (lost) on sacks.
PEN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on penalties.
TOTAL EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added.
ACT PLAYS: Plays on which the QB has a non-zero expected points contribution. Includes most plays that are not handoffs.
QB PAR: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of a quarterback who plays very rarely and is on the fringe of the NFL.
QB PAA: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback.
TOTAL QBR: Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale.

So, since 2006, Peyton Manning has been the clutchest QB in the postseason 3 times to Tom's 0 and has been rated more clutch every single postseason except for 1, when Tom finished 7th and Peyton 8th.

Wow.

The stats are really pointing in Tom's direction.
Do stats account for in-game situations? Peyton probably has the habit of the blockbuster game changing play that people remember while Brady is a steady dose of suck...
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:29 PM   #59
Hootie Hootie is offline
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now is a good time to link that one fanboy article from coldhardfootballfacts.com (whatever the **** that is) to try and stop the bleeding
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:32 PM   #60
GoChargers GoChargers is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 View Post
I actually read that wrong. They all include clutch-weighted stats:

* Season Leaders: On pace for 250 action plays.
* All-time data reflects 2006 onwards.
PASS EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes.
SACK EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added (lost) on sacks.
PEN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on penalties.
TOTAL EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added.
ACT PLAYS: Plays on which the QB has a non-zero expected points contribution. Includes most plays that are not handoffs.
QB PAR: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of a quarterback who plays very rarely and is on the fringe of the NFL.
QB PAA: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback.
TOTAL QBR: Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale.

So, since 2006, Peyton Manning has been the clutchest QB in the postseason 3 times to Tom's 0 and has been rated more clutch every single postseason except for 1, when Tom finished 7th and Peyton 8th.

Wow.

The stats are really pointing in Tom's direction.
Again with the Brady obsession. This thread is about Fivehead's chokes, not Brady. At the end of the day, this is what people will remember:

11-12 in the playoffs (most playoff losses ever by a QB)

8 one-and-dones

2 of the worst declines of offensive production from regular season to postseason (2004, 2013)

Countless interceptions in clutch moments, most notably Tracy Porter's title-clinching pick

He is the biggest choker EVER.
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