Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 - Page 26

**cdcox** · 03:26 PM

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

ILChief · 12-16-2012, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones

So is this potential loss by the Pats good for us?

Yes, it makes Denver's game against us more likely to matter to them

Chiefs Pantalones · 12-16-2012, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ILChief

Yes, it makes Denver's game against us more likely to matter to them

Delicious.

ShowtimeSBMVP · 12-23-2012, 03:04 PM

UPDATED

Chiefs 2-13 @Den
Jags 2-13 @Tenn

**BossChief** · 12-23-2012, 03:13 PM

Jags play at noon and we play at 3:15

We will know if we have the top pick or not by gametime.

aturnis · 12-23-2012, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Jags play at noon and we play at 3:15

We will know if we have the top pick or not by gametime.

If they win, yes. If they lose, we must still lose...

It might take until midway through the 2nd quarter before we know in the second scenario.

Chiefs Pantalones · 12-23-2012, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aturnis

If they win, yes. If they lose, we must still lose...

It might take until midway through the 2nd quarter before we know in the second scenario.

So if they win, we can win or lose and we'll still have the top pick?

aturnis · 12-23-2012, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones

So if they win, we can win or lose and we'll still have the top pick?

Si.

Chiefs Pantalones · 12-23-2012, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aturnis

Si.

Oh my bad, we have the tiebreaker duh.

**cdcox** · 12-23-2012, 03:26 PM

92% guys.

RUSH · 12-23-2012, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

92% guys.

Hammock Parties · 12-23-2012, 03:40 PM

Spott · 12-23-2012, 03:51 PM

The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.

Guitarkore · 12-23-2012, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spott

The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.

Would you waste your money on a Quin or Cassel Jersey?

Hammock Parties · 12-23-2012, 03:53 PM

If the Jags win before our game next week, do we have it?

Chiefs play at 4:25 EST. Jags are noon game.

Chiefs Pantalones · 12-23-2012, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

If the Jags win before our game next week, do we have it?

Chiefs play at 4:25 EST. Jags are noon game.

Yes, because if we end up tied with them we own the tiebreaker. So we can win if they win.

09-26-2012, 08:12 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2381769	Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 nfl-forecast.com is back for another season. After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16 KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 45,536

12-23-2012, 03:04 PM	#378
ShowtimeSBMVP Chiefs Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $3696009	UPDATED Chiefs 2-13 @Den Jags 2-13 @Tenn
Posts: 23,752

12-23-2012, 03:13 PM	#379
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $1914088	Jags play at noon and we play at 3:15 We will know if we have the top pick or not by gametime. __________________ Dreams do come true... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1407
Posts: 47,105

12-23-2012, 03:26 PM	#384
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2381769	92% guys.
Posts: 45,536

12-23-2012, 03:40 PM	#386
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4760478	__________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 277,621

12-23-2012, 03:51 PM	#387
Spott Court Jester Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Orlando Casino cash: $3132400	The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.
Posts: 19,691

12-23-2012, 03:53 PM	#389
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4760478	If the Jags win before our game next week, do we have it? Chiefs play at 4:25 EST. Jags are noon game. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 277,621