*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[lewdog]

**** Kendrys. No doubt he goes up there and immediately becomes a flaming reerun.

It's the Canadian standard.

[Dunit35]

Won't ever forget the home run he hit off Keuchel in the playoffs.

Screw him though. Can't stand the blue Jays.

[nychief]

I blame trump.

[Chiefspants]

We don't win a WS without Morales. I wouldn't have cared if he ended up signing a combo Jays/Broncos contract after what he did for us.

[cosmo20002]

I hope Cuthbert or someone spends the offseason juicing because we got no one to replace K-Mo's power.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

I hope Cuthbert or someone spends the offseason juicing because we got no one to replace K-Mo's power.

Until we sign a DH, which I think is inevitable.

[duncan_idaho]

So if Morales has set the market for the guys in the tier behind Trumbo and Encarnacion, will be interesting to see if that holds or if the market falls back a bit.

I'm interested to see what Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran end up doing. I think either is a great option for for KC, and they should be in the same general pay range as Morales.

I think either of those guys is an upgrade from Morales, actually.


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[CaliforniaChief]

Finally a celebrity makes good and heads to Canada.

Dammit I didn't want HIM to leave for there.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

So if Morales has set the market for the guys in the tier behind Trumbo and Encarnacion, will be interesting to see if that holds or if the market falls back a bit.

I'm interested to see what Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran end up doing. I think either is a great option for for KC, and they should be in the same general pay range as Morales.

I think either of those guys is an upgrade from Morales, actually.


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You think Beltran gets more than 1 year?

[duncan_idaho]

So, a text conversation with buddies kicked this into gear, and an extra-long mutual morning nap by the twins allowed me to write it all out. Here are my full offseason thoughts, now that the first domino has fallen (reserve the right to update as things develop)

Coming into 2017, I rank the Royals' needs as follows:

1) Proven middle of the order bat
2) SP
3) RP reinforcement
4) 2B
5) RF/platoon partner for Dyson vs. lefties

Now... my first orders of business are going to be extending Duffy and Herrera. I think both are prime candidates for it. Herrera because he's never had the huge payday, and the security would probably be too much to pass up (even if it's a little bit of a break for 2017 salary).

I sign Duffy to a 4-year, $48 million deal, with a 5th year on a mutual option for $15 million with a $4 million buyout. Structured as follows: $4 million, $12 million, $14 million, $14 million. By doing this, I save $4-4.5 million off of Duffy's 2017 salary. He doesn't really sacrifice any earning power, as he has the buyout to guarantee that money. And those rates on the final three years of the deal are what you would pay on the open market for a 3/4 starter or an elite reliever. So you don't even need Duffy to be ace-like to make it work.

Cash saved: $4.2 million

I sign Herrera to a 3 year, $27 million extension, with a 4th year on a mutual option for $15 million with a $3 million buyout. Structured as follows: $2 million, $10 million, $12 million. Again, the buyout pays him off for taking a hit from his arbitration in 2017. His salaries in 2018 and 2019 are market competitive for a good-not-great closer, a tick below the Jansens/Chapmans. Puts him in place to save 80 games over 2018 and 2019 and hit the 2020 free agent market at age 29 as an elite, established closer.

Cash saved: $3.3 million

That frees up $7.5 million in 2017 salary. If the Royals really did need to shed payroll, maybe that's enough that they don't have to make any other deals to save cash. If, as I think, they are actually going to spend MORE than the $132 they did in, I think that frees up enough to spend wisely in free agency to fill holes.

But I'm going to get a little crazier.

I've long thought suggestions KC would trade one of its 2017 free agents before the July trade deadline were crazy. But when I look around and see the value relievers have right now, I have to look at that differently. I love Wade Davis. But I'm starting to believe the teams' best bet for 2017 improvement involves trading him. What would that look like?

I think if you trade Davis, you have to plug one of the five holes I mentioned above. You're not going to get an MLB-ready middle-of-the-lineup bat for one year of Davis (Dave Stewart is no longer a general manager, alas), but you could get someone you can plug into the rotation or 2B/RF.

Davis Trade Options:
1) Nationals. The Nats' window is closing. Bryce Harper is a free agent after 2018, and the Yankees will come calling. They have been let down by their bullpen for several years in a row. Davis offers them the opportunity to plug that problem, if combined with Koda Glover. The Nationals also have an abundance of pitching talent and options. Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer are signed long-term. Tanner Roark is just entering arbitration. Gio Gonzalez is back for 2017 on an option. Joe Ross was great as a rookie in 2016. And they have uber-prospect Lucas Giolito leading a list of young, controllable starters including Reynaldo Lopez, AJ Cole, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth. Of that group, Giolito is probably untouchable and Fedde is too far from the bigs to be the primary piece. But place any of the others in a deal for Davis, and it starts to make sense. Davis for Lopez and one of Cole or Voth would make sense for both sides. It's also possible KC could seek Andrew Stevenson as the primary or secondary piece, an LSU product who profiles as a plus defender in CF and good hitter, who could be ready as soon as July 2017.

2) Giants. The Giants are rumored to be a big payer and may end up with one of Melancon, Chapman or Jansen in FA, but I don't think that necessarily means they're done on relief pitching. In a win-now window, the Giants could be motivated to deal for Davis. It would have to include their top prospect, Christian Arroyo, who would have to be a 2B for the Royals and is unlikely to be ready at the start of 2017. And it also would likely have to include Tyler Beede, the Giants' No. 2 prospect, who also spent 2016 at AA. In this deal, the Royals are looking for midseason reinforcements in the rotation and at 2B. Arroyo is not likely to be a superstar but would be a very steady plus bat at 2B. Beede has No. 2 starter upside.

3) Dodgers. The Dodgers also figure to spend big and land one of the top 3 closers, but like the Giants could use more bullpen help than that. A Davis swap for one of Cody Bellinger (OF/1B with a lefty power stroke who made it to AAA in 2017 and could be ready for MLB by June) or Jose De Leon (SP, with No. 2 starter upside, ready for MLB) would also make sense. It would be risky for KC, with the deal basically having to be a star for prospect swap (likely with a lotto ticket prospect thrown in from LA's side), but it could plug a lot of gaps moving forward and in 2017. Bellinger could be a nice injection of power for the offense, playing RF and DHing in 2017, and taking over at 1B in 2018.

There are more options than these three, but those are the three best trade waters for KC, IMO. I think the Nationals deal is the most likely, as they're the most desperate and have the biggest surplus of assets KC would seek. So I'm going to call Wade Davis to Washington in exchange for Reynaldo Lopez (who immediately becomes your 5th starter) and Austin Voth (who immediately becomes your 6th starter). Both would be rookies in 2017, so you're getting tons of control.

Now, the Royals have traded a $10 million dollar piece for two minimum salary guys. I've freed up a total of $17.5 million from the 2017 payroll, which should put KC somewhere in the $117 million range. I don't need to spend anything in FA on SP now, but have weakened the bullpen. I'll get to that in a few minutes.

With that money, I'm going to target two of three bats on the FA market: Matt Holliday or Carlos Beltran, and Steve Pearce.

Holliday/Beltran are an either/or situation for KC. Not getting both of them for that price. Holliday would be my top target, as a strong RH bat that balances out the lefty-heavy middle of KC's lineup. Playing him primarily at DH, with the rare start in LF when Gordon gets a day off or DHs, should keep Holliday healthy enough to play 140 games (he may also see some time at 1B). He also showed encouraging signs that he may be primed for a rebound season in 2017... was better than Morales in more limited time in 2016 and offers potential for a big upgrade. Something like .280/.375/.500 is still in Holliday's tank, if he's healthy. That would work out to around 25-30 HR, and should help with overall team run production. Also think he might be available on a 1/10-11 million or 2/20 deal.

Beltran is the fallback but is a great one. Think he's maybe a little pricier - $13-14 million in guarantees for 2017 - but I'd look at structuring that as one year with a mutual option... make the 2017 salary $10-11 million and add $2-3 million in buyout. Again, you're relying on the DH role to help Beltran stay healthy, with occasional time in RF (would play there against lefties, with Cain sliding to CF). Also think this is an upgrade from 2016 Morales in production... similar line to Holliday, and an average baserunner rather than a terrible one.

I'm going to go with Holliday as my sign, at $10 million in commitment for 2017. With the rest of my money, I'm looking at Pierce on a 2-year deal for $15-18 million. Pearce isn't a star, but he's a great complementary player who can play 1B, 3B, LF, RF, and even some 2B and punishes lefties (with power). He's a great complement for Jarrod Dyson as your primary CF.

Finally, I top off my bullpen. Herrera is the closer. Matt Strahm stays in the bullpen full-time. Scott Alexander and Brian Flynn are useful options. Joakim Soria needs to be relegated to 6th inning or earlier duties, though, so I spend my last blood, sweat and tears convincing David Glass to let me push payroll in the 140s on a reunion deal with Luke Hochevar, something like 3 years, $20 million (that again, is backloaded). I also sign Drew Storen as my out-of-nowhere reclamation project in the pen. If I can't increase payroll much, I pay for this by backloading some of Pearce's 2017 salary into a buyout (that comes due after 2018)

So what does this all look like?

Rotation:

Duffy (195 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 210 K, with some additional upside in ERA and WHIP but corresponding downside)
Kennedy (200 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 190 K)
Jason Vargas (180 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP - just solid and competitive)
Yordano Ventura (could be great, could be awful, but offers major upside and could benefit from pitching the day after Vargas and showing teams a completely different look)
Reynaldo Lopez (has good stuff, should be a better-than-average final starter)

Rotation depth:
Austin Voth
Mike Minor
Matt Strahm
Chris Young (Stuck with him for 2017)

That's a much rosier rotation situation, with nice mixtures of upside and insurance.

Bullpen:
Herrera
Strahm (eventually moves to the rotation, maybe)
Hochevar
Soria
Wildcard (FA signing like Storen or internal option like Kyle Zimmer of Josh Staumont)
LHP - Scott Alexander
LHP - Brian Flynn
long Relief - Chris Young

Lineup (vs. RHP)

CF - Dyson (.270/.330/.375 in around 400 ABs, also good for 35-40 SB)
3B - Moustakas (.275/.340/.500, with 25-28 HR)
RF - Cain (hopefully the moves allow you to keep him healthy and play him around 145 games, allowing him to go .300/.350/.450, steal 20 bags, and make the lineup work)
1B - Hosmer (.290/.340/.450, with potential for that complete season which would look something like . 320/.375/.500, with 30 HR)
DH - Holliday (.280/.375/.500, 25-30 HR)
LF - Gordon (I don't think he's done, and feel confident .260/.340/.425 is a reasonable floor for him, if healthy)
C - Sal Perez (.260/.290/.400, with 20-25 HR)
2B - Steve Pearce (.270/.330/.425 vs RH)
SS - Escobar (who cares)

Bench-
2B - Whit Merrifield. I don't think he's a star, but he could be replacement level at 2B for a low cost offensively, with plus D and baserunning.
C - Butera/Perez. Not going to play enough regardless.
OF - Orlando (now basically a 4th OF, offers some insurance for Cain's injury proneness)

In Merrifield and Pearce, you also have two very utilitarian pieces. Only real problem is that you don't have a quality reserve SS.


Lineup (vs. LHP)
2B - Merrifield (hit lefties well as a rook, think .280/.320/.400 is a reasonable target for him against lefties)
3B - Moustakas (against really tough lefties, could sit him for Pearce, who rakes lefties)
CF - Cain
1B - Hosmer (again, could be rested for Pearce against tough lefties)
DH - Holliday
LF - Gordon (see: Pearce)
C - Perez
RF - Pearce (had an OPS over 1.000 against lefties in 2016 and has a career .852 line against them)
SS - Escobar

Bench -
Dyson
Orlando
C

To review:

1) Middle of the order bat: Solved with Matt Holliday
2) SP: Improved both rotation and depth with trade of Wade Davis
3) RP reinforcement: Questionable, probably not quite as great. Davis/Herrera/Strahm definitely has more upside than Herrera/Strahm/Hochevar, with probably less risk. But with a better rotation, is that still an issue?
4) 2B - Pearce is not going to be a great defender at 2B, but he and Merrifield are a productive combo there
5) RF/platoon. Pearce is a perfect complement to Dyson... in part because he crushes lefties, but also because his versatility and ability to play 3B and 2B adds some utility to his roster spot.

I think that's a team that can win the Central and win another World Series, without huge doses of luck. You have some safeguards built in for injuries to the rotation and lineup... but even with all that, if Gordon, Cain, Perez and Hosmer all have 2016 repeats, it falls apart. Their improvement/bounce back is probably the most important piece. The Royals also still have some trade chips in Cuthbert and Dozier who could be used to sweeten a deal involving Davis and improve the return, or who could be trade chips at the deadline.

Your thoughts?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

You think Beltran gets more than 1 year?

Maybe. Also could see 1 year, mutual option for year two with buyout (1-3 million).


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[BlackHelicopters]

Thanks bin Laden.

[lewdog]

I've watched Cody Bellinger in the fall league here the past few months.

Dude looks very good. Great power stroke. Would take in a heartbeat.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I've watched Cody Bellinger in the fall league here the past few months.

Dude looks very good. Great power stroke. Would take in a heartbeat.

Yeah. He's talented. I have a hard time completely believing the brain trust of the Dodgers would move him for one year of a reliever, no matter how good he is.


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[lewdog]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yeah. He's talented. I have a hard time completely believing the brain trust of the Dodgers would move him for one year of a reliever, no matter how good he is.


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Yea, it's why if they really would move him, you take it.

No way I would. I think he'll be a good MLB player.

I can only hope the Dodgers would be that dumb. **** LA.