Home Discord Chat
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > Nzoner's Game Room
Reload this Page Football The role of luck in sports
Register FAQDonate Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

Reply
Page 1 of 2 1 2
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-05-2014, 03:41 PM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
Kind of a mod
 
DaFace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
Casino cash: $2146899
The role of luck in sports
When you really think about it, an enormous amount of an NFL team's success comes from luck. Yes, solid drafting, FA moves, coaching, etc. all push you in the right direction, but there's clearly not a lot of true skill involved in things like plucking Tom Brady out of the 6th round of the draft or having the #1 pick on the year that Andrew Luck is available.

It's the same thing both within a season (having an easy vs. hard schedule) and even during a given game (injuries galore yesterday).

If I were to arbitrarily pull a number out of my ass, I'd say that only around 60% of a team's success in the NFL is under the control of the team's management and 40% just has to fall in place. (You can debate the exact proportions, but the point still stands.)

So...

Does luck make the game more fun? Or does it just suck? On the one hand, it makes games we end up winning because of good fortune a lot of fun, but man...it's tough to invest so much time over a season to a game that comes down to nothing but a weighted coin flip in the end.
Posts: 51,699
DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 03:56 PM   #2
Rain Man Rain Man is offline
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
Casino cash: $3438491
VARSITY
The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck.

Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season.

The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing.

So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being:

Talent - 60%
Luck as it relates to injuries - 25%
Luck as it relates to play execution - 15%

I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that.
__________________
I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,181
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 03:57 PM   #3
007 007 is offline
Shaken. Not stirred.
 
007's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: London
Casino cash: $14060126
VARSITY
all I know is the Chiefs don't have luck.
__________________
My dear girl, there are some things that just aren’t done. Such as, drinking Dom Perignon ’53 above the temperature of 38 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s just as bad as listening to the Beatles without earmuffs.
Posts: 65,554
007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 03:58 PM   #4
BigCatDaddy BigCatDaddy is offline
The Beast Inside Your Head
 
BigCatDaddy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Parts Unknown
Casino cash: $2139122
I'd say he played a huge role yesterday.
Posts: 25,854
BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigCatDaddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 03:59 PM   #5
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
In Search of a Life
 
Deberg_1990's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: San Antonio Tx.
Casino cash: $3944454
Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.
__________________
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning:

Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down.

One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
Posts: 66,914
Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 04:02 PM   #6
DaFace DaFace is offline
Kind of a mod
 
DaFace's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
Casino cash: $2146899
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 View Post
Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.
I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.
Posts: 51,699
DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 04:05 PM   #7
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
In Search of a Life
 
Deberg_1990's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: San Antonio Tx.
Casino cash: $3944454
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.
Understandable. There are a ton of NBA teams tanking this year.

I truly think Indy tanked in 2011 as well, although we will never know. Smart move if they did.
__________________
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning:

Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down.

One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
Posts: 66,914
Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 04:05 PM   #8
kcxiv kcxiv is offline
In Search of a Life
 

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Central Valley, Cali
Casino cash: $8807996
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 View Post
Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.
The chiefs did t even try to tank the season they tried to win they just sucked that bad. Colts Intentionally sucked that bad. They made an effort to stay shitty by keeping Curtis painter in there. They didn't even try to sign a vet off the street to start or trade for one.


Chiefs do it the legit way and get screwed. Colts, did it intentionally and get rewarded. That's more then luck. That's something else.
Posts: 29,110
kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.kcxiv is too fat/Omaha.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 04:12 PM   #9
scho63 scho63 is offline
Politically Incorrect
 
scho63's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Casino cash: $2891110
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"

Nuff said
__________________
"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!" ~Redd Foxx~


2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 Adopt a Chief - Clark Hunt and Brett Veach
"The men who drafted Patrick Mahomes"

Posts: 50,388
scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 04:25 PM   #10
GloucesterChief GloucesterChief is offline
MVP
 

Join Date: Jan 2013
Casino cash: $1896454
The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck. I am pretty sure they did it on purpose. Of course, they can't admit that but it was on purpose.
Posts: 12,633
GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.GloucesterChief 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 04:58 PM   #11
SAUTO SAUTO is offline
Shit
 

Join Date: Jun 2008
Casino cash: $10039067
Quote:
Originally Posted by GloucesterChief View Post
The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck. I am pretty sure they did it on purpose. Of course, they can't admit that but it was on purpose.
actually it had everything to do with luck.
Posts: 55,715
SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 05:00 PM   #12
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
In Search of a Life
 
Deberg_1990's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: San Antonio Tx.
Casino cash: $3944454
Quote:
Originally Posted by GloucesterChief View Post
The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck.
Ok
__________________
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning:

Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down.

One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
Posts: 66,914
Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Deberg_1990 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 05:04 PM   #13
007 007 is offline
Shaken. Not stirred.
 
007's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: London
Casino cash: $14060126
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO View Post
actually it had everything to do with Luck.
FYP. it had everything to do with Luck. capital L
__________________
My dear girl, there are some things that just aren’t done. Such as, drinking Dom Perignon ’53 above the temperature of 38 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s just as bad as listening to the Beatles without earmuffs.
Posts: 65,554
007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 05:06 PM   #14
SAUTO SAUTO is offline
Shit
 

Join Date: Jun 2008
Casino cash: $10039067
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guru View Post
FYP. it had everything to do with Luck. capital L
same difference to me
Posts: 55,715
SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2014, 05:06 PM   #15
ChiefsCountry ChiefsCountry is offline
The Insider
 
ChiefsCountry's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Lake of the Ozarks
Casino cash: $2438752
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.
NBA is a different breed. One player can change so much in basketball compared to any other sport.
Posts: 49,523
ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.ChiefsCountry is obviously part of the inner Circle.
     Reply With Quote
Reply
Page 1 of 2 1 2

« Previous Thread | > Nzoner's Game Room < | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:41 AM.

Contact Us - ChiefsPlanet - Archive - Top

This is a test for a client's site.
Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
Advertise with us!
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.