NFL Draft QB comparison

[Mr. Laz]

Some stats

Deshaun Watson is by far the 2017 NFL Draft’s most tested QB
9
“Of course he is! He went to two title games!” Well, it’s even deeper than that.
by Jason Kirk Apr 7, 2017, 8:00am EDT

Even if we knew for sure a QB would be going in the top five of the 2017 NFL Draft, we’d have to argue about who it should be. North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky might be a slight media favorite, but not by a lot. SB Nation, ESPN, and one NFL.com analyst rank Trubisky second; USA Today has him third; and SI and Sporting News fourth.

Also considered among the top five QBs by one major outlet or another: Miami’s Brad Kaaya, Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer, Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes, Pitt’s Nathan Peterman, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, and Cal’s Davis Webb.

Lotta names! I dunno how you distinguish them. There are arguments for and against each. Lemme add one more argument!

As a college fan, one subject I feel NFL people overlook is the level of competition already faced by these players.

NFL fans fairly worried about the quality of Carson Wentz’s FCS opponents, but there’s a wide range within FBS as well. Throwing for 400 yards against Alabama twice — just to pick a totally random example — means more than doing the same to Kansas.

Let’s rank them by opponent-adjusted numbers.

2017 NFL Draft QBs, ranked by 2015/2016 schedule strength

can't copy stat comparison table, follow link to website: http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...rback-rankings

Watson’s raw stats are a little worrying, especially the turnovers, as is his arm strength, apparently. In 2016, Mahomes threw for way more yards per game (421 to 306), Trubisky threw about a third as many INTs (six to 17),

Peterman had a far superior yards-per-attempt number (9.3 to 7.9), and so on.

But considering the schedules Watson faced, his 2015 and 2016 top-10 rankings in completion percentage, TDs, and total yardage look even more impressive.

As Bill Connelly wrote in a statistical study of 2016 college QBs:

The most interesting name is one not in the Power 5 top five: Watson, who ended up in the 81st percentile, 10th among P5 dual-threats.

Opponent adjustments would have been kind to Watson (Clemson did play eight teams in the S&P+ top 25, after all). I’m assuming he’d have been in the top five had that been taken into account. (And as soon as I figure out a decent way to do that, I will.)

But if you’re trying to poke holes in Watson’s résumé — and we know draft scouts love to do that — you could note that Watson was drastically below-average in a few categories.

Whereas Trubisky was at the 73rd percentile or higher in four of six categories and wasn’t below the 50th in any, Watson was 45th percentile in yards per completion, 49th in interception rate, 41st in opportunity rate, and 32nd in highlight yardage. He was really good at scrambling for necessary third-down yardage, but ... maybe that’s a thing? Maybe he’s not a great enough runner to scramble the same way in the pros?

I’m not sure I believe that, but it might have some merit. (Gun to my head, I’m still picking Watson over Trubisky, though.)

[Coochie liquor]

Watson really scares me. He's a baller at the college level, but I just don't think that translates well to the NFL.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

Watson really scares me. He's a baller at the college level, but I just don't think that translates well to the NFL.

I thought he had a lot of promise as a Freshman.

Unfortunately, after seeing him play and develop in college, I would have to agree with that sentiment as well. Great college QB, going to struggle a lot in the NFL.

[Nickhead]

i have been real curious as to what overall defenses these qb's played against. to me, that is the truest test of a qb. you can average 300 yards a game, but if all those games are against coastal carolina, it doesn't mean shit

[Otter]

My wish list is:

Smith
Bray
Mahomes

Smith is starting next season whether you want to accept that reality or not but two young gunslingers ready to take over and end the dink and dunk would be awesome.

Mahomes isn't going to be ready to start year one anyway.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by Otter

My wish list is:

Smith
Bray
Mahomes

Smith is starting next season whether you want to accept that reality or not but two young gunslingers ready to take over and end the dink and dunk would be awesome.

Mahomes isn't going to be ready to start year one anyway.

Dink and Dunk is Reid's system. You act like it's Alex calling all of the quick screens that go for 2 yards and a cloud of dust.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

Dink and Dunk is Reid's system. You act like it's Alex calling all of the quick screens that go for 2 yards and a cloud of dust.

some people think that Reid is calling all of those BECAUSE Alex Smith is the QB.

i'm not one of those. If Smith really was limiting the offense like that then Reid would have been trying to replace him. He hasn't, at all.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

Dink and Dunk is Reid's system. You act like it's Alex calling all of the quick screens that go for 2 yards and a cloud of dust.

You must purposely leave out all the deep routes Andy sets up for Alex who either chooses the check down or doesn't do anything at all.

The Tyreek Hill miss in the playoff game was the perfect example of this.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by RunKC

You must purposely leave out all the deep routes Andy sets up for Alex who either chooses the check down or doesn't do anything at all.

The Tyreek Hill miss in the playoff game was the perfect example of this.

except for the fact in that play, Hill was a decoy and not in the QB progressions

[Direckshun]

Tribusky is Pennington
Watson is Russell Wilson
Kizer is Josh Freeman
Mahomes is a wild card -- his floor is Geno Smith but his ceiling is Derek Carr

[rico]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

some people think that Reid is calling all of those BECAUSE Alex Smith is the QB.

i'm not one of those. If Smith really was limiting the offense like that then Reid would have been trying to replace him. He hasn't, at all.

I don't think Reid calls dink and dunk plays because Smith is his QB...I think that's generally how he prefers to call plays...

However, I feel like the only system Smith could even be capable of looking minimally competent in, would be an offense that relies on dinkin' and dunkin' like the WCO.

[Nickhead]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

except for the fact in that play, Hill was a decoy and not in the QB progressions

not saying he wasn't a decoy, but that logic is stooooooooopid if you are a coach. aside from the rb being a 'decoy' on play action, no receiver should ever be disallowed from being a target.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

some people think that Reid is calling all of those BECAUSE Alex Smith is the QB.

i'm not one of those. If Smith really was limiting the offense like that then Reid would have been trying to replace him. He hasn't, at all.

Over the 4 years that Andy and Alex have been here, Andy has talked about trying to get Alex to take more shots downfield.

Yes, Andy's system does use a lot of short passes.
It's the nature of the WCO.

But Alex has taken it to entirely different level, and that is probably why there have been a lot of rumors about the Chiefs showing some impatience with Alex, and the Chiefs strong interest in QBs in this draft.

Andy hasn't tried to replace before now because he thought he could "fix" him.

He may have finally come to the conclusion that he can't fix him.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

except for the fact in that play, Hill was a decoy and not in the QB progressions

This is 100% false Laz.

Alex even admitted it in Terez Paylors article. "If I would have just seen Tyreek."

[Pasta Little Brioni]

QB comparisons are dumb as ****