Who's your breakout Chiefs player for 2015?

[BossChief]

From now until camps kick off is the dead air time for the NFL. This used to be the time when a few high priced vets would get cut due to cap considerations (post June 1st) and we would all discuss the merits of them, but the new CBA made it to where teams didn't have to wait to cut them and still get the benefits...so here we are. Bored and begging for Chiefs talk that hasn't been hashed and rehashed a few hundred times. Time for something new. I've done these the last few years and it's created some good conversation, so here we go.

In the past, guys have asked to define what a "breakout player" is and I've always seen it as a guy that hasn't done much in the past, has underperformed (but has flashed ability) and will be a lot more productive going forward. This can be any player on the Chiefs roster. Even a rookie, I suppose.

I'm going to make a controversial pick this year, but one that anyone that has read my posts this offseason can guess who it is.

My pick for breakout player of 2015 is none other than Alex Smith.

I know, I know. and all that..."what a homer"..."game manager"...

Let me explain my reasoning for this selection.

1) Third year in the system. I'm sure a few of you will point to Alex's age to discredit this, but I remember Urban Meyers comments about Alex and how until he masters an offense, he will be "non functional" and once he masters it, nobody will run the offense better. I fully believe that is the Alex Smith we will see going forward. I see a player that never really got a chance to master an offense in SF and the only thing close was the last year there where he was completing 70% of his throws for 8ypa and a 13-5 td-int ratio. I expect him to be visibly more comfortable out there in 2015 and by years end be on a whole other level. Andy Reid routinely mentioned in interviews last year that Alex could tell him exactly what everybody was doing and where they were during a play. He would always have answers for why he didn't make certain throws. He's very smart and even though all of us want to see him throwing bombs, Alex didn't want to take unnecessary chances with the ball throwing to guys he didn't trust to make the play. I think that had a lot more to do with the skill position players that Alex. I hope I'm right.

2) The OL offering some stability. Starting at left tackle and moving right, I see improvement from almost every position on the OL and that is huge for Alex Smith. Fisher having a full offseason to work on his strength and technique is huge for Alex. The kid has the tools to be a very effective player at a premier position and with some personnel improvement and going from McGlynn to Ben Grubbs next to him is gonna be huge. It's very under appreciated how big that trade is for Eric's progression. Going from Hudson to Kush at center is a step down on paper, no doubt...but when the kid has gotten a shot, he has played well. SD game in 13, last preseason, the comments Alex and Grubbs have made in support of Eric...I just don't think this will be a massive step down. Plug in MM at RG instead of Lincenbach and it's a clear upgrade. Ryan Harris wasn't terrible, but it's not gonna be hard to improve over his level of play last year and Don Stephenson/Jeff Allen have both shown to be superior players over him in the past. One of them is gonna lock down that spot and provide us solid play. Jeff Allen was looking good until he went down.

3) Vastly improved perimeter weapons. Last year, we had a declining Dwayne Bowe (or unmotivated, whatever), Donnie Avery getting injured early, Thomas and Wilson getting hindering injuries early and the position having nothing else. When AJ Jenkins is a starting receiver for your offense, you're gonna have problems. Enter Jeremy Maclin. This guy can flat out fly and runs crisp routes. Did I mention he has the best hands in football?...he only dropped one catchable ball last year. Alex will trust him early and often and that's something he didn't have with any receivers last year until December when Wilson got healthy and up to speed and we brought in Jason Avant. Thomas and Wilson were 2 guys Alex really trusted towards the end of last year and I look for them to build on that and become legit playmakers in 2015. Wilson had 209 receiving yards in Alex Smiths last 3 games, I think he's poised to have a 750+ yard type season with a handful of scores. He will get lots of single coverage and is a legit 4.3 guy and by all reports has shown up to OTAS very focused and prepared. Thomas is an electrifying playmaker that is stepping into a bigger role in the offense. Avant is a trustworthy vet. Then we get to Conley, who is a flat out burner and is smart as they get. He might just sneak up on everybody due to the attention going elsewhere.

4) The running game. We all want to blame Andy Reid for the lacking attention to the running game, but if you have listened to Jamaal Charles, he says that's because he kept getting injured throughout the year and was never healthy. Said health wise, it was his most frustrating year as a player. With a fully healthy Jamaal Charles running behind an improved OL and weapons in the passing game that should keep opposing defenses from crowding the LOS, I see Jamaal having a great year. Over 2000 total yards and 20 tds are achievable goals. Knile Davis is a beast, too and could also flourish in this situation. Especially with opposing defenses having to go "small" to counter all the speed we have on offense. I don't think it's out of the realm of reality to think Jamaal averages over 6ypc this year and Davis is over 5. I really don't. This will let Alex operate against honest defenses all year, allowing him to be more productive.

5) Speed, baby. Raw, unbridled speed. Everywhere. Maclin is a 4.4 guy and Conley, Wilson, Thomas, Charles and Davis are all 4.3 guys. When you have a guy or 2 that have all world speed, defenses can gameplan for that. It's nearly impossible to gameplan for a whole offense with elite wheels. Alex will have lots of opportunities to go deep with this group of wideouts and he has shown he is willing to take shots deep when he trusts the receiver (Avery and Wilson have shown this)..by years end, I expect Alex to be dropping bombs on defenses regularly.

6) The emergence of Travis Kelce. Lots of us questioned Andy Reid early last year for starting Fasano over Kelce early on, but TK cleared that up for us this offseason stating that early in the year his knee wasn't fully healthy yet and he didn't feel 100% till mid November. I'm excited to see what the kid can do with full trust in his knee and I think he makes it as an all pro in 2015. Great blocker and a steady weapon in the middle of the field. Alex will get him the ball a lot and already trusts him in crucial situations.


My prediction is that Alex ends the year with something like

3900-4100 yards passing
300-400 yards rushing
27-33tds
7-9 interceptions
100+ rating
65+ QBR

Legit pro bowl appearance.

Team makes it to AFC Championship game in large part because of his play, not despite it.

Now, who's your breakout Chiefs player for 2015 and why? (You obviously don't need to write as long of a write up, just thought I'd give more reasoning that normal because of the high profile of my pick of AS. One or 2 reasons are plenty)

[JoeyChuckles]

Signed back in to say Vince Agnew. Another year of maturity should do it.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Very, VERY close.



It's hard not to laugh at this point.

Are we STILL pointing to that Urban Meyer quote? Didn't people say that Alex was the PERFECT fit for this offense when we acquired him? But now, when he needs an excuse, we break out a quote about him needing time to learn an offense he's supposedly "perfect" for?

Bottom line? He's had nearly a DECADE of excuses?

He has NONE this year. None whatsoever. He has weapons, and he has a defense that can carry this team to 7-8 wins BY THEMSELVES.

Alex Smith BETTER be the breakout player of the year, or this is going to be another 8-9 win season missing the playoffs or one-and-done.

The guy is paid like a Top-10 QB. He needs to start playing like one and winning this team some games when the defense doesn't have a great day.

With all that said, what's the saying? A leopard can't change his spots?

He is what he is. A guy who is good enough not to lose you games, but not good enough to win them when necessary. He gets carried, and can't do the carrying when required.

I fully expect him to put up better numbers, based on the YAC that the weapons around him are capable up putting up. But on days where those weapons are getting locked up, or the defense is having a tough day, forget it.

So...I'll take Peters. I think this kid is going to be ****ing filthy from Day One.

Alex has only played with a good coach a solid supporting cast for 2.5 years. Those teams won a lot of games and made the playoffs.
I think that will happen this season.

[DaNewGuy]

Santos

[Saccopoo]

Jeff Allen

****ing O-line is going to be waffle stomping mudholes in peoples asses this year.

[ThaVirus]

Dave Dameshek ranks the NFL's best triplets (QB + top two skill position players).

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...or-2015-season

13) Kansas City Chiefs: Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles & Jeremy Maclin

Previous rank: No. 18

Hear me now, believe me later: These triplets will lead K.C. to a division crown in 2015. Charles is a jewel whose luster is oddly underappreciated (but will be eventually cloaked in a gold jacket). Smith is (still) better than you think. Maclin (rejoined with his old pal, Andy Reid) is, at a minimum, an upgrade ... and even has an outside chance at catching a TD pass this season.

Interesting what he notes about Jamaal and the HOF, but if we're going to win this division, it'll be because Alex comes through in the clutch.

[threebag]

Yeah I have always liked Alex Smith. Think he got the short end of the stick many times in SF. It's nice to have a Quaterback 3/4 of the NFL would want instead of who they have.

[BlackOp]

I'm thinking Dee Ford. He's a smart guy and being exposed to not only Hali but watching Houston rack up 22 sacks is quite an impression for a rookie. Imagine sitting and watching these two everyday...much like I think Thomas Jones's work ethic had a huge impact on Charles.

I think KC's CBs/Safeties are going to be something to watch. They didn't give up 300 yards passing in any game last year. I wont be surprised if KC is a top 3 defense..I wont be surprised if they end up being #1 overall. Tyvon Branch could potentially be the steal of FA...am curious about Commings potential too. Lots of interesting story lines going down...If Peters contributes..this is going to be a hard defense to put points on.

[SeeingRed]

I'm gonna say Alex Smith because if he has anything close to a 4000 yd season we will be in the hunt for a title...and he has weapons.

Besides Smith on Offense I'll go with Conley to have a break out rookie season
along the man who needs to protect Smith...Big Fish

On Defense Dee Ford as an edge rusher to compliment Hali & Houston
And while everybody's paying attention to the best edge rushers in the league Cat gonna blow up OG's all year inside....double digit sack season as an inside rusher for Big Cat

[SeeingRed]

Only reasons i didn't mention Charles, Kelce and Maclin is because they have already broken out. The more i think about this team the better it looks. Trying to be guardedly optimistic as to not get too excited but i really like this squad.

[BlackOp]

Word is that Philly is still looking to move Kendricks. I really, really want KC to pursue a trade for him...as much as Maclin, Kelce and Grubbs give the offense new hope...I'm more excited about the defense they are putting together.

I really think this might be the most balanced team I have seen from KC in..maybe ever.

[SeeingRed]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Word is that Philly is still looking to move Kendricks. I really, really want KC to pursue a trade for him...as much as Maclin, Kelce and Grubbs give the offense new hope...I'm more excited about the defense they are putting together.

I really think this might be the most balanced team I have seen from KC in..maybe ever.

and from everything i hear they have good chemistry....i just saw this post from Tamba's instagram and it made me laugh...it will be interesting to see what this defense turns out to be. Especially if somehow Berry can make it back at some point then that would just throw them over the top as a GREAT D.

https://instagram.com/p/3hF4kEBe4p/

[SeeingRed]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Dave Dameshek ranks the NFL's best triplets (QB + top two skill position players).

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...or-2015-season



Interesting what he notes about Jamaal and the HOF, but if we're going to win this division, it'll be because Alex comes through in the clutch.

I think Smith is underrated and can be a clutch QB if his WRs step up and the grab the ball in clutch moments....and although only 200 lbs Charles is bad as well and I agree i could see him as a HOFer....him Lynch and Peterson are the best RBs in the game. AND he got THE most underrated guy on the team Sherman Tank leading his way for his run in that direction if he stays healthy

[temper11]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

And if you're right, it's the first year in 10 he's played up to MY standards.

Nothing changes.

FYP.

He won't play up to your standards OTW. He isn't your type of QB. You want a big arm, gunslinger... That's not who he is anymore - he learned the hardway his formula for success.

He did play up to Harbaughs standards in 2011 and again in 2012 before the injury. (Enter comments here about getting benched... Smith was actually playing very well in 2011 before his injury. He was not sidelined the rest of the season because of poor play, but rather because of the massive potential Harbaugh thought he saw in Kaepernick). In fact it was this style of play that attracted Reid to Smith in the first place. And he's continued to play up to Reid's and Dorsey's standards in 2013 as indicated with a fancy new contract. Same guy in 2014 as well. So there's 4 of the ten.

He only played in 9 games his rookie season and then only 7 in 2007 due to injury. An injury that would require surgery and keep him sidelined throughout the entire 2008 season, and has been attributed to what some consider a lack of arm strength for Smith today. That accounts for 7 of the 10 years.

2009 and 10 were a continuation on the dumbassery of completely incompetent coaches, schemes, etc etc. that had been SF football for a number of years. Smith played in only 11 games each of those seasons as one QB after another was thrown in to be the saving grace of DOA franchise. Jimmy freaking Raye was the 7th OC in 7 years for the niners in 09 under new head coach Mike Singletary - New roles for both men and they changed from ground and pound style at the start of the season to a more spread offense somewhere in the middle - good luck with that. The next year they canned Raye in favor of Mike Johnson, making it 8 OC's in 8 years, who's now working as the HC at the King's Academy in Sunnyvale Ca. The niners were all levels of suck that something like 10 or 11 QB's on the QB carousel weren't able to elevate.

His sophmore season was the only season, up until 2011, that Smith played a full 16-game season. He had a veteran OC in Norv Turner and had what many considered to be a pretty damned decent year. There was plenty of optimism in SF that Smith could be the QBOTF for the niners. In fact his numbers that year were very similar to Carr's numbers last year. Same completion percentage, fewer yards on fewer attempts but more yards per attempt. The niners however weren't able to hold on to Turner, and what may have been a potential rise for the niners, had Norv stayed, descended back into the shitter.

I see people throw around this "10 years" as if he's just been under center year after year. Just not true. He's a veteren, yes. And you are welcome to think he should be better than he is - fine. Most of those years however, were more volatile on a QB than any other QB I can think of.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Andy Reid...

If he can un stupid himself calling plays and managing the clock late in games. We can pick up 3-4 extra wins this year...

This team will go as far and Reids game management will take it.

YOU'VE MADE IT TO 50,131 POSTS!!

OF THE SAME DAMN THING

GO FOR 100,000!!!!!!!

[temper11]

Who I hope will be the break out player of the year is Albert Wilson. If he were, that'd mean the Chiefs had a legit WR2, and had weapons at every position. Also, I love that he went undrafted. Sucker for an underdog story.