Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

[TimBone]

I know in the hearts of every planeteer, Mahomes has already led us to multiple Super Bowls, and that this whole career thing is just a formality before his HOF induction ceremony, but what is everyone realistically looking for from him this season?

Maybe I'm just letting my battered fan syndrome take over, but I feel like we need to pump the brakes a little bit. He looked solid against Denver, sure, but he's still just a second year guy that was pretty raw coming out of college.

So, what kind of numbers would everyone be happy with? What kind of things will you all be personally looking for from him?

Lastly, if you think I'm being a pussy and need to shut up and buckle up for the Mahomes show, please hit me with your best neg rep. The funnier the better.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Realistically?

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect Mahomes to top 5,000 passing yards.

In his first start, playing with scrubs against one of the best pass D's in the NFL, he put up 284 yards. Assuming that is an average game for him, he is already at 4,544 yards for the season. With scrubs. Against a good pass D.

To top 5,000 yards in a 16 game season, he would have to average 312 passing yards per game.

The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you believe that Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt can contribute another 28 yards per game, on average, against typically lesser defenses.

Another way to think about it: Do you think that Mahomes, with those tools, can average about 26 passing yards per possession over the course of a season? Considering that he (so far) averages 8.11 yards per attempt, I think that over the course of a season, he can hit that mark with relative ease.

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Shag

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

and PM2 will surpass 5k multiple times in his career where 4K will be underperforming for him

[SAUTO]

Marino did it in 84

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Shag

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

Marino did it in 84

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Realistically?

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect Mahomes to top 5,000 passing yards.

In his first start, playing with scrubs against one of the best pass D's in the NFL, he put up 284 yards. Assuming that is an average game for him, he is already at 4,544 yards for the season. With scrubs. Against a good pass D.

To top 5,000 yards in a 16 game season, he would have to average 312 passing yards per game.

The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you believe that Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt can contribute another 28 yards per game, on average, against typically lesser defenses.

Another way to think about it: Do you think that Mahomes, with those tools, can average about 26 passing yards per possession over the course of a season? Considering that he (so far) averages 8.11 yards per attempt, I think that over the course of a season, he can hit that mark with relative ease.

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

[GMitch]

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

4000yds, 26/14

Although he may exceed this because I have a feeling the Chiefs are going to be in some track meets this season.

Good chance the D isn't going to be able to stop shit this first yr of the Mahomes era.

I don't know about numbers but I think we'll need a lot of scoring/yards because the defense will suck this year. We could be the best offense in the league and still end up 10-6. I hope I'm wrong.

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Marino did it in 84

I think if Marino played in today's NFL he'd have 5000 yards every season he played.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Here's what I expect.

Over 3,500 yards.

Over 20 TD's.

Under 20 interceptions

over 7.2 yards per attempt.

10 or more wins.

Honestly, I think he'll exceed most of those numbers. In my mind, that's sandbagging. Maybe I'm overhyped, but I don't think so.

I honestly can't think of the last time a first year starter was in such an ideal situation.

13 QBs last year threw for over 3,500 yards. How many of those QBs had thetools that Mahomes will have at his disposal?

To say that Mahomes will throw for 3,500 yards is to say that he is, at best, a very, very average QB.....

[crayzkirk]

I expect growing pains along with signs of whether he is the next best thing or another Todd Blackledge. As a fan that has watched this team try it the hard way, I am ready to watch them try it the easy way; grab a guy that hasn't been broken or given up on by another team.

I would like the Chiefs to win a Superbowl, more than that, I would like them to dominate the AFC instead of trying to compete and lose to what I would call lesser opponents.

[Chief Roundup]

I imagine he will still have some growing pains. He will probably break 3500 passing yards. He will probably be around 20 TDs. He will have almost as many INTs. He will have some "I shouldn't have thrown that" moments but he will give us more "How did he do that" moments.

[Buckweath]

I realize many fans overestimate how good Mahomes will be in his first year starting and underestimate the defense going into next year.

[AssEaterChief]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

13 QBs last year threw for over 3,500 yards. How many of those QBs had thetools that Mahomes will have at his disposal?

To say that Mahomes will throw for 3,500 yards is to say that he is, at best, a very, very average QB.....

Or....a very very young QB who is managed very well by his experienced head coach.

I think most teams are going to force the Chiefs to run the ball....and Andy will take advantage of that.

Smart head coaches generally don't have their super young QB throwing the ball 35+ times a game.

Marino, Luck, and Manning are some of the few exceptions over the last 30 years...

[HemiEd]

Mahomes isn't scared, he has the physical tools to dominate at this level.

The unknown is his mental ability and I think we saw a sample of mental maturity in the Denver game.

Once Harris caught that first pass, it was on. Mahomes was locked and I don't think we have to worry about looking back.

The 48 year wait is over, enjoy it. This team is going to piss the NFL and the LA bandwagon off. They know it, that is why they started the schedule out 3 of 4 on the road.

It is all about LA but the Chiefs are going to spoil that party. 12-4 with a trip to the AFC championship game being the floor.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

KnowShit? Is that you? Because this post sounds like the bullshit excuses he's been giving for why the Chiefs won in week 17. Don't forget. He had VonDouchebag coming after him on a lot of plays. There were more defensive starters for the Donks on the field the entire game than offensive first stringers on the field for Mahomes. He had to make due behind a backup offensive line, without having Kelce or Hill on the field to throw to and the running back to keep the defense honest was Sherman. Yet he still managed 284 yards and had the game in hand until Bray tried to give the game away. He then came back in, with VonDouchebag rushing him, and put the game away. That was pretty impressive.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by AssEaterChief

Or....a very very young QB who is managed very well by his experienced head coach.

I think most teams are going to force the Chiefs to run the ball....and Andy will take advantage of that.

Smart head coaches generally don't have their super young QB throwing the ball 35+ times a game.

Marino, Luck, and Manning are some of the few exceptions over the last 30 years...

Yet Reid had him throw it 35 times in his first/only start against the Broncos last season.