Is a defensive 4-3 change coming to KC?

[arrwheader]

I saw this article from arrowhead addict. The guy had an interesting theory that KC might be thinking about switching to the 4-3 scheme based on some recent draft picks and other things. Thought it was worth discussing. What do you say experts? Any merit to what this guys saying?

Full article here:

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/10/...ges-andy-reid/

Does Brett Veach have a secret master plan to fix the defense?

Thomas Welte1 h ago
Has Brett Veach been planning on a long-term defensive overhaul for 2019 that includes a change at defensive coordinator?

Patrick Mahomes has taken the NFL by storm and made believers out of even his harshest critics, and the Kansas City Chiefs are widely considered to be Super Bowl contenders this season.

In the midst of the best start to a season a quarterback in a red and gold (and possibly any other color) uniform has ever had, there is a layer of anxiety from the Kansas City faithful. The offense is firing on all cylinders and has grabbed the attention of the media, but the defense leaves anyone who has followed the Chiefs with a gnawing sensation in their gut on game day.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is bad. The Chiefs are currently last in the league in total defense. Even after a good showing against the Blake Bortles-led Jaguars, the Chiefs are still giving up nearly 20 yards more per game than the next worst defense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While many are drooling over Patrick Mahomes, there remains a great many of us who are sitting at home having flashbacks to 2003, or to the 2013 wild card playoff games against the Colts, or the infamous no punt game. There is no shortage of victories squandered away by subpar defensive units in Kansas City Chiefs history.

Is it possible though that general manager Brett Veach has a secret master plan to fix the maligned unit? Or is the young shot caller for the Chiefs in over his head? Let’s take a look.

I am an avid podcast listener and have to drive a lot for my work. This combination leaves me with plenty of time to dive into a collection of true crime stories and conspiracy theory breakdowns. It was on a particularly long drive back in May, just a few weeks after the NFL draft, that I began to ponder what on earth the Chiefs were doing to their defense. This is when I started to form my own conspiracy theory about the Chiefs and the plan they have for their defense.

The Chiefs traded Marcus Peters this offseason. That move has been discussed ad nauseum, but it is worth mentioning simply because it made (and still makes) very little sense. They brought in Anthony Hitchens who had spent the past year playing inside for Dallas in their 4-3 defense. Then the draft came.

The Chiefs selected Breeland Speaks and announced him as a linebacker, an edge defender. Breeland Speaks is 283 pounds and ran a 4.87, oversized for a linebacker and not possessing the speed you want when dropping a guy into coverage. Their next selection was Derrick Nnadi who was a run stuffing nose tackle, but a bit undersized for a traditional 0 tech nose. Next came Dorian O’Daniel, an undersized but athletic linebacker from Clemson.

What do all of these players have in common? None of them are limited to, or traditional fits, in a base 3-4 defense. I watched a lot of tape on Speaks after the Chiefs drafted him, and Ole Miss played him all over the field. In my opinion, Speaks looked like a prototypical base (left) defensive end in a 4-3. Derrick Nnadi is a natural 1 tech, lining up between the center and guard and defending the run. Dorian O’Daniel makes sense as a weak side linebacker.

So here it is, my thought out theory: Brett Veach is stocking the Chiefs with defenders to make the switch to a base 4-3 defense in 2019.

As of this writing, 7 of the top 10 defenses in the NFL run a 4-3 base defense. I will add that caveat that in today’s NFL the gap between defensive philosophies is narrowing, and no team plays out of only one formation.

That said, as the rules have changed to create a cushion around the quarterback and wide receivers the league defenses are moving away from heavy press man schemes that rely on jarring the quarterback with a pass rush. That is not to say that teams are straying away from pass rushers, but instead they are focusing on using athletic linebackers and safeties to create disequilibrium in the short to intermediate parts of the field, a defensive line to apply pressure, and corners who are aiming to not give up the big play.

This defensive evolution appears to be a marriage of concepts from the Tampa 2 defensive philosophy and the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom philosophy. Looking at the Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineup may help you visualize the concepts.

Andy Reid ran a 4-3 defense in Philadelphia, but inherited a 3-4 team in Kansas City. Reid brought in Bob Sutton who, despite the teams recent struggles, did an excellent job of coaching in his beginning years in Kansas City. Things have changed drastically since then and I firmly believe Sutton will retire this offseason. This opens the door for the Chiefs to make a change on defense since, as their defense sits right now, they are not married to any particular defensive philosophy. They have several players who could play in either scheme.

So who could the Chiefs bring in to coordinate a new defense? Let’s look at some options.

[FAX]

Yep. The game has changed dramatically in the last 10 years.

Speed is a far more valuable virtue ... compared to the olden days.

FAX

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I agree.

I think the Chiefs are seeing that as well.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I agree.

watching him get abused on that wheel route against the Jags I was thinking why is that guy in because he is so ****ing slow. If he plays alot on Sunday night he is going to give up multiple TD's.

[FAX]

Rags is quickly evolving into a 1-down linebacker, I fear.

0-down linebacker would be my preference.

FAX

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

watching him get abused on that wheel route against the Jags I was thinking why is that guy in because he is so ****ing slow. If he plays alot on Sunday night he is going to give up multiple TD's.

I actually felt bad for the guy on that play.

He did everything he could. He read the play, he got out there as quickly as he could - he simply wasn't physically capable of preventing an easy pitch/catch for a touchdown.

That really says all that needs to be said. When you can do everything right and still get burned by something as stone-aged as a simple wheel route from a very average RB, you probably don't belong on the field.

I don't think he's jaking it - but he's just not an NFL player at this point. Hell, IR him and see if the speed comes back at all next year. Right now he may not be worth rostering.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I actually felt bad for the guy on that play.

He did everything he could. He read the play, he got out there as quickly as he could - he simply wasn't physically capable of preventing an easy pitch/catch for a touchdown.

That really says all that needs to be said. When you can do everything right and still get burned by something as stone-aged as a simple wheel route from a very average RB, you probably don't belong on the field.

I don't think he's jaking it - but he's just not an NFL player at this point. Hell, IR him and see if the speed comes back at all next year. Right now he may not be worth rostering.

With his snap count getting less and less each week, seems that's the way we're trending.

If he's hurt and trying to get thru it, kudos.

I don't think that's the issue. I just don't think he's very good.

I'd play Niemann or DOD and just take my lumps. Atleast they can run.

[FAX]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I actually felt bad for the guy on that play.

He did everything he could. He read the play, he got out there as quickly as he could - he simply wasn't physically capable of preventing an easy pitch/catch for a touchdown.

That really says all that needs to be said. When you can do everything right and still get burned by something as stone-aged as a simple wheel route from a very average RB, you probably don't belong on the field.

I don't think he's jaking it - but he's just not an NFL player at this point. Hell, IR him and see if the speed comes back at all next year. Right now he may not be worth rostering.

It is sad.

He wants to be good. The physical capacity just isn't there. The game has changed on the brother. Thumping dudes isn't going to stop anybody in this version of the NFL because there are far fewer dudes to thump.

Let's sincerely hope that it's just his knee problem and he can recover more fully and eventually develop some close speed and quickness. Forgive me if I don't hold my breath on that one.

FAX

[ct]

still think houston can put his hand down and be just fine moving back to 4-3. ford hs got to go if we make this switch. houston, speaks, tanoh DE rotation, jones, nnadi, xavier DT would work for me. inside depth needs help, maybe hamilton works here?

Hitchens is good at ILB but you better be lookin for a premier OLB in the draft. not ok with dod a base starter, and smith/neiman are st or depth period.

and we still need to be looking at early DBs too

[ModSocks]

I don't recall who i was listening to, but they were on the radio discussing 2018 NFL offensive trends and that they believed you're going to see a fundamental shift back to the 43 because the 43 was better equipped to handle today's offenses.

Iirc, the reason is that in the 34, you essentially have 3 big bodies that generally don't serve well as pass rushers. Today you're seeing NFL defenses in the Nickel+ formations, which takes those big bodies off the field.

Also, zone is far more effective against today's offenses. Teams generally don't rush more than 4, so being able to get pressure from 4 is much more important. Teams are also using LB's far less in coverage and instead relying on multiple safeties and corners, as LB's generally end up in a mis-match when in coverage.

Everything is trending towards smaller, faster bodies in the front 7 and the ability to get pressure without blitzing.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by ct

still think houston can put his hand down and be just fine moving back to 4-3. ford hs got to go if we make this switch.

Ford's going to be overpaid anyway. Bye.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

I don't recall who i was listening to, but they were on the radio discussing 2018 NFL offensive trends and that they believed you're going to see a fundamental shift back to the 43 because the 43 was better equipped to handle today's offenses.

Iirc, the reason is that in the 34, you essentially have 3 big bodies that generally don't serve well as pass rushers. Today you're seeing NFL defenses in the Nickel+ formations, which takes those big bodies off the field.

Also, zone is far more effective against today's offenses. Teams generally don't rush more than 4, so being able to get pressure from 4 is much more important. Teams are also using LB's far less in coverage and instead relying on multiple safeties and corners, as LB's generally end up in a mis-match when in coverage.

Everything is trending towards smaller, faster bodies in the front 7 and the ability to get pressure without blitzing.

I agree with these points. I hope we can hop on this idea sooner rather than later.

Does Sutton have any pro experience in a 4-3, or do we think we will need a new DC to implement it?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

I don't recall who i was listening to, but they were on the radio discussing 2018 NFL offensive trends and that they believed you're going to see a fundamental shift back to the 43 because the 43 was better equipped to handle today's offenses.

Iirc, the reason is that in the 34, you essentially have 3 big bodies that generally don't serve well as pass rushers. Today you're seeing NFL defenses in the Nickel+ formations, which takes those big bodies off the field.

Also, zone is far more effective against today's offenses. Teams generally don't rush more than 4, so being able to get pressure from 4 is much more important. Teams are also using LB's far less in coverage and instead relying on multiple safeties and corners, as LB's generally end up in a mis-match when in coverage.

Everything is trending towards smaller, faster bodies in the front 7 and the ability to get pressure without blitzing.

The Tampa 2 was designed essentially to handle the WCO. The RPO offenses are taking college spread and NFL WCO offenses, mashing them together, and improving upon them. The "future" of defense in the NFL, IMHO, will be taking college "spread" defenses (like the 4-2-5) and the Tampa 2, mashing them together, and improving upon them.

[DJ's left nut]

The 4-2-5 is absolutely the next wave, IMO. I mean hell, it's just a fancy way of saying "Nickel" as your base, but I think that's what we'll see. The problem becomes finding the 2 LBs that can slot into those roles. You essentially need a guy like Bobby Wagner that can do anything.

Peak Daryl Washington is essentially the prototype LB in a true 4-2-5, IMO. There just aren't too many of those guys out there...

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I actually felt bad for the guy on that play.

He did everything he could. He read the play, he got out there as quickly as he could - he simply wasn't physically capable of preventing an easy pitch/catch for a touchdown.

That really says all that needs to be said. When you can do everything right and still get burned by something as stone-aged as a simple wheel route from a very average RB, you probably don't belong on the field.

I don't think he's jaking it - but he's just not an NFL player at this point. Hell, IR him and see if the speed comes back at all next year. Right now he may not be worth rostering.

yup. They need to get O'Daniel in there more. Niemann is listed as his backup and don't know how much speed he has.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The problem becomes finding the 2 LBs that can slot into those roles. You essentially need a guy like Bobby Wagner that can do anything.

Actually here's a weird idea...since Berry has absolutely lost a step at this point, maybe he could have a future playing a lot of downs as a coverage backer in our next defense. He's certainly tough enough to take on blocks.